Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons^™

China's Wheat Production Projections And Implications For Imports, Bashir Qasmi, Yunqing Wang, Scott Fausti, Han Kim

Economics Staff Paper Series

Wheat production in China is analyzed using a seven-region model and data for 1978-1997. The empirical results indicate; 1) the area planted to wheat in China is responsive to the real wheat procurement price, 2) contrary to prior expectations, the growth in GNP, a proxy for industrialization and urbanization, did not seem to impact the wheat area significantly, 3) wheat yield showed a significant upward trend in all regions over time, depicting combined impacts of increased chemical fertilizer use, expansion of irrigated areas, increased investment, and other technological improvements, and 4) Chinese wheat production is projected to range from 132.33 …