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Verifying Empirical Predictive Modeling Of Societal Vulnerability To Hazardous Events: A Monte Carlo Experimental Approach, Yi Victor Wang, Seung Hee Kim, Menas C. Kafatos

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

With the emergence of large amounts of historical records on adverse impacts of hazardous events, empirical predictive modeling has been revived as a foundational paradigm for quantifying disaster vulnerability of societal systems. This paradigm models societal vulnerability to hazardous events as a vulnerability curve indicating an expected loss rate of a societal system with respect to a possible spectrum of intensity measure (IM) of an event. Although the empirical predictive models (EPMs) of societal vulnerability are calibrated on historical data, they should not be experimentally tested with data derived from field experiments on any societal system. Alternatively, in this paper, …