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Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons

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2020

Probability

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Articles 1 - 11 of 11

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Nonparametric Bayesian Deep Learning For Scientific Data Analysis, Devanshu Agrawal Dec 2020

Nonparametric Bayesian Deep Learning For Scientific Data Analysis, Devanshu Agrawal

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as the leading paradigm for predictive modeling in a variety of domains, especially those involving large volumes of high-dimensional spatio-temporal data such as images and text. With the rise of big data in scientific and engineering problems, there is now considerable interest in the research and development of DL for scientific applications. The scientific domain, however, poses unique challenges for DL, including special emphasis on interpretability and robustness. In particular, a priority of the Department of Energy (DOE) is the research and development of probabilistic ML methods that are robust to overfitting and offer reliable …


Dynamic Neuromechanical Sets For Locomotion, Aravind Sundararajan Dec 2020

Dynamic Neuromechanical Sets For Locomotion, Aravind Sundararajan

Doctoral Dissertations

Most biological systems employ multiple redundant actuators, which is a complicated problem of controls and analysis. Unless assumptions about how the brain and body work together, and assumptions about how the body prioritizes tasks are applied, it is not possible to find the actuator controls. The purpose of this research is to develop computational tools for the analysis of arbitrary musculoskeletal models that employ redundant actuators. Instead of relying primarily on optimization frameworks and numerical methods or task prioritization schemes used typically in biomechanics to find a singular solution for actuator controls, tools for feasible sets analysis are instead developed …


Proving Pairwise Intransitivity In Sets Of Dice, Erika Clary Dec 2020

Proving Pairwise Intransitivity In Sets Of Dice, Erika Clary

Honors Projects

Prior research has been conducted regarding the intransitivity of a set of dice when a single die from a set is rolled against another die from that set and when two of the same dice are rolled against a different pair of two of the same dice. This project examines and proves that an intransitive cycle exists in every set of at least five dice when two different dice are rolled against two other different dice.


Applying The Data: Predictive Analytics In Sport, Anthony Teeter, Margo Bergman Nov 2020

Applying The Data: Predictive Analytics In Sport, Anthony Teeter, Margo Bergman

Access*: Interdisciplinary Journal of Student Research and Scholarship

The history of wagering predictions and their impact on wide reaching disciplines such as statistics and economics dates to at least the 1700’s, if not before. Predicting the outcomes of sports is a multibillion-dollar business that capitalizes on these tools but is in constant development with the addition of big data analytics methods. Sportsline.com, a popular website for fantasy sports leagues, provides odds predictions in multiple sports, produces proprietary computer models of both winning and losing teams, and provides specific point estimates. To test likely candidates for inclusion in these prediction algorithms, the authors developed a computer model, and test …


Covid-19 And Quantitative Literacy: Focusing On Probability, Michael A. Lewis Oct 2020

Covid-19 And Quantitative Literacy: Focusing On Probability, Michael A. Lewis

Numeracy

The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the worst crisis the world has faced, so far, in this new century. We haven’t seen a pandemic like this since the 1918 Flu at the beginning of the last century, and, as of this writing, there appears to be no end in sight. What those of us who’re focused on quantitative methods have noticed, in addition to the many people dying, becoming ill, and losing their livelihoods, is the importance of quantitative literacy to an understanding of what’s going on. That’s what this article is about. Specifically, it’s about how the COVID-19 pandemic is …


Analysis Of The Continuity Of The Value Function Of An Optimal Stopping Problem, Samuel Morris Nehls Aug 2020

Analysis Of The Continuity Of The Value Function Of An Optimal Stopping Problem, Samuel Morris Nehls

Theses and Dissertations

In order to study model uncertainty of an optimal stopping problem of a stochastic process with a given state dependent drift rate and volatility, we analyze the effects of perturbing the parameters of the problem. This is accomplished by translating the original problem into a semi-infinite linear program and its dual. We then approximate this dual linear program by a countably constrained sub-linear program as well as an infinite sequence of finitely constrained linear programs. We find that in this framework the value function will be lower semi-continuous with respect to the parameters. If in addition we restrict ourselves to …


Combinatorial And Asymptotic Statistical Properties Of Partitions And Unimodal Sequences, Walter Mcfarland Bridges May 2020

Combinatorial And Asymptotic Statistical Properties Of Partitions And Unimodal Sequences, Walter Mcfarland Bridges

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Our main results are asymptotic zero-one laws satisfied by the diagrams of unimodal sequences of positive integers. These diagrams consist of columns of squares in the plane; the upper boundary is called the shape. For various types of unimodal sequences, we show that, as the number of squares tends to infinity, 100% of shapes are near a certain curve---that is, there is a single limit shape. Similar phenomena have been well-studied for integer partitions, but several technical difficulties arise in the extension of such asymptotic statistical laws to unimodal sequences. We develop a widely applicable method for obtaining these limit …


Using Modern Portfolio Theory To Analyze Virgil's Aeneid (Or Any Other Poem), David Patterson May 2020

Using Modern Portfolio Theory To Analyze Virgil's Aeneid (Or Any Other Poem), David Patterson

Master's Theses

This paper demonstrates that it is possible to use mathematics to study literature as it has been used to study the social sciences. By focusing on mathematically defining economic and literary terms, it can be shown that the underlying mathematical structure behind key concepts in economics and literature are analogous. This opens the possibility of applying economic models in literature. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the economic mathematical model of modern portfolio theory can answer long standing questions around the Roman epic Aeneid by Virgil. The poet died before completing his poem. The relative completeness of the books of the …


Dice Questions Answered, Warren Campbell, William P. Dolan Apr 2020

Dice Questions Answered, Warren Campbell, William P. Dolan

SEAS Faculty Publications

Superstitious discussion of fair and unfair dice has pervaded the tabletop gaming industry since its inception. Many of these are not based on any quantitative data or studies. Consequently, misconceptions have been spread widely. One dice float test video on Youtube currently has 925,000 views (Fisher, 2015a). To combat the flood of misconceptions we investigated the following questions: 1) Are dice cursed? 2) Are D20s (20-sided dice) less fair than D6s (6-sided dice)? 3) Do float tests tell anything about the fairness of dice? 4) Are some dice systems inherently fairer than others? 5) Are density differences or dimensions more …


Pair-A-Dice Lost: Experiments In Dice Control, Robert H. Scott Iii, Donald R. Smith Jan 2020

Pair-A-Dice Lost: Experiments In Dice Control, Robert H. Scott Iii, Donald R. Smith

UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal

This paper presents our findings from experiments designed to test whether we could use a custom-made dice throwing machine applying common dice control methods to produce dice rolls that differ from random. In earlier research we calculated the percentages of control a craps player needs to break even or beat the house (Smith and Scott, 2018). Using the most common practices of dice control in craps, we established how dice should be configured (i.e., set) and thrown to achieve certain outcomes such as not rolling a seven in the point cycle. We decided to run experiments to see if a …


Measuring And Modeling Information Flow On Social Networks, Tyson Charles Pond Jan 2020

Measuring And Modeling Information Flow On Social Networks, Tyson Charles Pond

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

With the rise of social media, researchers have become increasingly interested in understanding how individuals inform, influence, and interact with others in their social network and how the network mediates the flow of information. Previous research on information flow has primarily used models of contagion to study the adoption of a technology, propagation of purchase recommendations, or virality of online activity. Social (or "complex") contagions spread differently than biological ("simple") contagions. A limitation when researchers validate contagion models is that they neglect much of the massive amounts of data now available through online social networks. Here we model a recently …