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Forecasting The Effect Of The Amethyst Initiative On College Drinking, Ben G. Fitzpatrick, Richard Scribner, Azmy S. Ackleh, Jawaid Rasul, Geoffrey Jacquez, Neal Simonsen, Robert Rommel
Forecasting The Effect Of The Amethyst Initiative On College Drinking, Ben G. Fitzpatrick, Richard Scribner, Azmy S. Ackleh, Jawaid Rasul, Geoffrey Jacquez, Neal Simonsen, Robert Rommel
Mathematics Faculty Works
Background
A number of college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to consider lowering the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking.
Methods
A system model of college drinking siumlates MLDA changes through (1) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) due to the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (misperception), and (2) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students due to increased social availability of alcohol (wetness).
Results
For the proportion of HEDs on campus, effects …