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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger
Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Ocean Warmth, James B. Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Jill C. Trepanier, Thomas H. Jagger
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A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay Hobgood
A Statistical Model To Forecast Short-Term Atlantic Hurricane Intensity, Kevin Law, Jay Hobgood
Kevin Law
An alternative 24-h statistical hurricane intensity model is presented and verified for 13 hurricanes during the 2004–05 seasons. The model uses a new method involving a discriminant function analysis (DFA) to select from a collection of multiple regression equations. These equations were developed to predict the future 24-h wind speed increase and the 24-h pressure drop that were constructed from a dataset of 103 hurricanes from 1988 to 2003 that utilized 25 predictors of rapid intensification. The accuracy of the 24-h wind speed increase models was tested and compared with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24-h intensity forecasts, which …