Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
Articles 1 - 13 of 13
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Effectiveness Of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys To Members Of Multinational Professional Groups, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Thomas Yokum
Effectiveness Of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys To Members Of Multinational Professional Groups, J. Scott Armstrong, J. Thomas Yokum
J. Scott Armstrong
Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.)prepaid monetary incentive increased the response rates, and it was as effective for members as for nonmembers (gains of 18.6% and 15.3%, respectively). Surprisingly, the U.S. dollar monetary incentive had a greater effect on foreign than U.S. response rates (gains of 32.6% and 12.9%, respectively).
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with doing the best for oneself. The research comes from many fields, but primarily from education, sports, the performing arts,and psychology. The results have been consistent, clear-cut, and surprising: competition typically results in less creativity, poorer performance, and reduced satisfaction.
Forecasting For Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
Forecasting For Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
J. Scott Armstrong
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, …
Brand Trial After A Credibility Change, J. Scott Armstrong, David B. Montgomery
Brand Trial After A Credibility Change, J. Scott Armstrong, David B. Montgomery
J. Scott Armstrong
In most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in terms of significantly differentiated products. The staggering array of manufacturers' claims and counter claims of brand superiority seems to leave consumers somewhat bewildered or cynical. What would happen if the credibility of the appeals made on behalf of one brand should suddenly be enhanced by a seemingly legitimate authority? More specifically, what would characterize consumers who would respond to such a change in credibility?
Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions In Measuring Intentions To Purchase, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry Overton
Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions In Measuring Intentions To Purchase, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry Overton
J. Scott Armstrong
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their future purchasing plans has had considerable predictive success [1, 2, 4]. Any attempt to apply such "intention to purchase" methods to forecast demand for proposed products or services must determine some way to convey product information to the potential consumer [3]. Indeed, all the prospective consumer knows about the product or service is what he may infer from the information given to him by the researcher. This paper presents a study of the effect upon intention to purchase of this seemingly crucial element—the extent and …
Management Science: What Does It Have To Do With Management Or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
Management Science: What Does It Have To Do With Management Or Science?, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
This paper is an edited version of the College of Business Studies Silver Jubilee Commemoration lecture, given as part of celebrations recognizing 25 years of teaching and research in the Faculty of Business Studies, now the College of Business, at Massey University.
Return Postage In Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Edward J. Lusk
Return Postage In Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong, Edward J. Lusk
J. Scott Armstrong
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also helped to identify unpublished research and to supply missing information. Application of the five-step procedure to the issue of return postage in mail surveys yielded significantly more papers and produced more definitive conclusions than those derived from traditional reviews. This meta-analysis indicated that business reply postage is seldom cost effective because first class postage yields an additional 9% return. Business reply rates were lower than for other first class …
Effects Of Portfolio Planning Methods On Decision Making: Experimental Results, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
Effects Of Portfolio Planning Methods On Decision Making: Experimental Results, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
J. Scott Armstrong
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six administrators ran experiments on 27 occasions in six countries over a five-year period. Information about the BCG matrix increased the subjects' likelihood of selecting the project that was clearly less profitable. Of subjects exposed to the BCG matrix, 64% selected the unprofitable investment. Of subjects who used the BCG matrix in their analysis, 87% selected the less profitable investment.
Predicting The Outcome Of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing Versus Unaided Opinions, J. Scott Armstrong, Philip D. Hutcherson
Predicting The Outcome Of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing Versus Unaided Opinions, J. Scott Armstrong, Philip D. Hutcherson
J. Scott Armstrong
Role-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior research, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing negotiations, the predictions based on role-playing were correct for 53% of the predictions while unaided opinions were correct for only 7% (p < 0.001).
The Value Of Surprising Findings For Research On Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
The Value Of Surprising Findings For Research On Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
In the work of Armstrong (Journal of Business Research, 2002), I examined empirical research on the scientific process and related these to marketing science. The findings of some studies were surprising. In this reply, I address surprising findings and other issues raised by commentators.
Review Of Scott Plous, The Psychology Of Judgment And Decision Making, J. Scott Armstrong
Review Of Scott Plous, The Psychology Of Judgment And Decision Making, J. Scott Armstrong
J. Scott Armstrong
Where can one find basic marketing principles? Up to now, my favorite source has been Influence(Cialdini 1984, 1993). In The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Plous (rhymes with house) adds to Cialdini by summarizing important principles in an effective manner. The book contains a wonderful selection of the classic studies on psychology. These are organized into six sections: (1) perception, memory, and context; (2) how questions affect answers; (3) models of decision making; (43 heuristics and biases; (5) the social side of judgment and decision making; and (6) common traps.
A Note On The Use Of Markov Chains In Forecasting Store Choice, J. Scott Armstrong, John U. Farley
A Note On The Use Of Markov Chains In Forecasting Store Choice, J. Scott Armstrong, John U. Farley
J. Scott Armstrong
Ehrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models for aggregate analysis of consumer behavior. While it has been pointed out that some of his criticisms are not entirely correct [13], one of Ehrenberg's themes is unquestionably valid. The models tend to break down empirically due to violations of important Markovian stability assumptions [14]. A situation in which the assumptions of the model appear less restrictive is short-run forecasting of store choice behavior of individual families.
Estimating Nonresponse Bias In Mail Surveys, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton
Estimating Nonresponse Bias In Mail Surveys, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton
J. Scott Armstrong
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the magnitude of bias, the use of extrapolations led to substantial improvements over a strategy of not using extrapolations.