Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Survival Model Predictive Accuracy And Roc Curves, Patrick Heagerty, Yingye Zheng

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

The predictive accuracy of a survival model can be summarized using extensions of the proportion of variation explained by the model, or R^2, commonly used for continuous response models, or using extensions of sensitivity and specificity which are commonly used for binary response models.

In this manuscript we propose new time-dependent accuracy summaries based on time-specific versions of sensitivity and specificity calculated over risk sets. We connect the accuracy summaries to a previously proposed global concordance measure which is a variant of Kendall's tau. In addition, we show how standard Cox regression output can be used to obtain estimates of …

Selecting Differentially Expressed Genes From Microarray Experiments, Margaret S. Pepe, Gary M. Longton, Garnet L. Anderson, Michel Schummer

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

High throughput technologies, such as gene expression arrays and protein mass spectrometry, allow one to simultaneously evaluate thousands of potential biomarkers that distinguish different tissue types. Of particular interest here is cancer versus normal organ tissues. We consider statistical methods to rank genes (or proteins) in regards to differential expression between tissues. Various statistical measures are considered and we argue that two measures related to the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve are particularly suitable for this purpose. We also propose that sampling variability in the gene rankings be quantified and suggest using the “selection probability function”, the probability distribution of rankings …

Semi-Parametric Regression For The Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, Lori E. Dodd, Margaret S. Pepe

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Medical advances continue to provide new and potentially better means for detecting disease. Such is true in cancer, for example, where biomarkers are sought for early detection and where improvements in imaging methods may pick up the initial functional and molecular changes associated with cancer development. In other binary classification tasks, computational algorithms such as Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and Evolutionary Algorithms have been applied to areas as diverse as credit scoring, object recognition, and peptide-binding prediction. Before a classifier becomes an accepted technology, it must undergo rigorous evaluation to determine its ability to discriminate between states. Characterization of …