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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Modeling The Optimum Duration Of Antibiotic Prophylaxis In An Anthrax Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Robert Bollinger
Modeling The Optimum Duration Of Antibiotic Prophylaxis In An Anthrax Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Elizabeth Johnson, Robert Bollinger
Ron Brookmeyer
A critical consideration in effective and measured public health responses to an outbreak of inhalational anthrax is the optimum duration of antibiotic prophylaxis. We develop a competing-risks model to address the duration of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incubation period that accounts for the risks of spore germination and spore clearance. The model predicts the incubation period distribution, which is confirmed by empirical data. The optimum duration of antibiotic prophylaxis depends critically on the dose of inhaled spores. At high doses, we show that exposed persons would need to remain on antibiotic prophylaxis for at least 4 months, and considerable morbidity …
Statistical Models And Bioterrorism: Application To The U.S. Anthrax Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Natalie Blades
Statistical Models And Bioterrorism: Application To The U.S. Anthrax Outbreak, Ron Brookmeyer, Natalie Blades
Ron Brookmeyer
In the fall of 2001 an outbreak of inhalational anthrax occurred in the United States that was the result of bioterrorism. Letters contaminated with anthrax spores were sent through the postal system. In response to the outbreak, public health officials treated over 10,000 persons with antibiotic prophylaxis in the hopes of preventing further morbidity and mortality. No persons receiving the antibiotics subsequently developed disease. The question arises as to how many cases of disease may actually have been prevented by the public health intervention of antibiotic prophylaxis. A statistical model is developed to answer this question by relating to the …