Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Alternative Principal Components Regression Procedures For Dendrohydrologic Reconstructions, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Thomas C. Piechota, John A. Dracup

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Streamflow reconstruction using tree ring information (dendrohydrology) has traditionally used principal components analysis (PCA) and stepwise regression to form a transfer function. However, PCA has several procedural choices that may result in very different reconstructions. This study assesses the different procedures in PCA-based regression and suggests alternative procedures for selection of variables and principal components. Cross-validation statistics are presented as an alternative for independently testing and identifying the optimal model. The objective is to use these statistics as a measure of the model's performance to find a conceptually acceptable model with a low prediction error and the fewest number of …