Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Application Of Tree-Structured Regression For Regional Precipitation Prediction Using General Circulation Model Output, Xiangshang Li, David J. Sailor

Mechanical and Materials Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study presents a tree-structured regression (TSR) method to relate daily precipitation with a variety of free-atmosphere variables. Historical data were used to identify distinct weather patterns associated with differing types of precipitation events. Models were developed using 67% of the data for training and the remaining data for model validation. Seasonal models were built for each of 2 US sites: San Francisco, California, and San Antonio, Texas. The average correlation between observed and simulated daily precipitation data series is 0.75 for the training set and 0.68 for the validation set. Relative humidity was found to be the dominant variable …