Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-Eta Numerical Model Output, Christian S. Wohlwend
Theses and Dissertations
The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect …
Nowcasting Thunderstorms At Cape Canaveral, Florida, Using An Improved Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index, Cindy L. Howell
Nowcasting Thunderstorms At Cape Canaveral, Florida, Using An Improved Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index, Cindy L. Howell
Theses and Dissertations
The Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI) is used daily by the 45th Weather Squadron during the convective season to estimate the probability of afternoon thunderstorms. The current I , developed by Charles J. Neumann in the 1960s, i based on only 13 years of data taken over 30 years ago. The index was in desperate need of an upgrade. Following the multiple regression techniques outlined by Neumann, this thesis examines whether or not including additional data would improve the performance of the NPTI. After performing the multiple regressions and retuning the regression coefficients, both NPTs were validated using a 2-year independent …
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Calibrated Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based On The Mrf Ensemble, Frederick Anthony Eckel
Theses and Dissertations
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPF) based on the medium range forecast (MRF) ensemble are currently in operational use below their full potential quality (i.e., accuracy and reliability). This unfulfilled potential is due to the MRF ensemble being adversely affected by systematic errors which arise from an imperfect model and less than ideal ensemble initial perturbations. This thesis sought to construct a calibration to account for these systematic errors and thus produce higher quality PQPF. Systematic errors were explored with the use of the verification rank histogram, which tracks the performance of the ensemble. The information in these histograms was then …
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
A Comparison Of Advect Cloud Model And Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model Total Fractional Cloud Forecasts, Brian D. Pukall
Theses and Dissertations
Total fractional cloudiness (FC) forecasts from the advect cloud (ADVCLD) model and total FC forecasts diagnosed from the relative humidity and total cloud condensate (snow, ice, rain water, and cloud water) fields from the fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) were statistically and subjectively compared to determine which model produced the better total FC forecasts from August through November 1997 for a forecast window centered on Bosnia. The real time nephanalysis (RTNFPH) model was used to represent the true state of the atmosphere. ADVCLD and MM5 forecasts were also compared against a persistence forecast to provide a minimal skill baseline. The …
Analyzing Horizontal Distances Between Wsr-88d Thunderstorm Centroids And Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Strikes, Steve L. Renner
Analyzing Horizontal Distances Between Wsr-88d Thunderstorm Centroids And Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Strikes, Steve L. Renner
Theses and Dissertations
On April 29, 1996, lightning struck the airfield at Hurlburt Field, FL, killing one Airmen and injuring ten others. This cloud to ground lightning strike hit eight minutes after a lightning advisory was canceled. At the time of the strike, thunderstorms were observed 7 to 10 miles north and south of the airfield. The incident raised questions about Air Force Weather Agency's lightning criteria. Soon after the incident, a Lightning Safety Review Panel was assembled to determine the adequacy of lightning advisories. One of the questions posed to the panel was could an incident like Hurlburt happen again? The review …