Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

On The Lack Of Stratospheric Dynamical Variability In Low‐Top Versions Of The Cmip5 Models, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Mark P. Baldwin, Thomas Birner, Robert X. Black, Amy H. Butler, Natalia Calvo, Nicholas A. Davis, Edwin P. Gerber, Nathan Gillett, Steven Hardiman, Junsu Kim, Kirsten Krüger, Yun-Young Lee, Elisa Manzini, Brent A. Mcdaniel, Lorenzo Polvani, Thomas Reichler, Tiffany A. Shaw, Michael Sigmond, Seok-Woo Son, Matthew Toohey, Laura Wilcox, Shigeo Yoden, Bo Christiansen, François Lott, Drew Shindell, Seiji Yukimoto, Shingo Watanabe

Faculty and Research Publications

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events …