Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Measurement-Type "Calibration" Of Expert Estimates Improves Their Accuracy And Their Usability: Pavement Engineering Case Study, Edgar Daniel Rodriguez Velasquez, Carlos M. Chang Albitres, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

In many applications areas, including pavement engineering, experts are used to estimate the values of the corresponding quantities. Expert estimates are often imprecise. As a result, it is difficult to find experts whose estimates will be sufficiently accurate, and for the selected experts, the accuracy is often barely within the desired accuracy. A similar situations sometimes happens with measuring instruments, but usually, if a measuring instrument stops being accurate, we do not dismiss it right away, we first try to re-calibrate it -- and this re-calibration often makes it more accurate. We propose to do the same for experts -- …