Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Optimizing The Mix Of Games And Their Locations On The Casino Floor, Jason D. Fiege, Anastasia D. Baran

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

We present a mathematical framework and computational approach that aims to optimize the mix and locations of slot machine types and denominations, plus other games to maximize the overall performance of the gaming floor. This problem belongs to a larger class of spatial resource optimization problems, concerned with optimizing the allocation and spatial distribution of finite resources, subject to various constraints. We introduce a powerful multi-objective evolutionary optimization and data-modelling platform, developed by the presenter since 2002, and show how this software can be used for casino floor optimization. We begin by extending a linear formulation of the casino floor …

Stationary And Time-Dependent Optimization Of The Casino Floor Slot Machine Mix, Anastasia D. Baran, Jason D. Fiege

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Modeling and optimizing the performance of a mix of slot machines on a gaming floor can be addressed at various levels of coarseness, and may or may not consider time-dependent trends. For example, a model might consider only time-averaged, aggregate data for all machines of a given type; time-dependent aggregate data; time-averaged data for individual machines; or fully time dependent data for individual machines. Fine-grained, time-dependent data for individual machines offers the most potential for detailed analysis and improvements to the casino floor performance, but also suffers the greatest amount of statistical noise. We present a theoretical analysis of single …