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Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons™
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Articles 1 - 3 of 3
Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
On Efficacy And Effectiveness Of Vaccines: A Mathematical Approach Based On Conditional Probability With Applications To The Covid-19 Context, Flavius Guias
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
This paper presents a mathematically formalized approach which points out the relation between efficacy and effectiveness of vaccines. The first term denotes the relative degree of protection in clinical trials or under ideal conditions, while the latter is based on observed real-life data. We define the efficacy by a similar formula to the effectiveness, but the probabilities involved in the relative risk are conditional with respect to the exposure to the virus. If exposure and vaccination status are independent, the two quantities are equal. Otherwise, the observed value of the effectiveness is a biased one, as it could be seen …
Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer
Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, And Simulation Of The Covid-19 Pandemic With Behavioral Patterns And Group Mixing, Comfort Ohajunwa, Padmanabhan Seshaiyer
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
Due to the rise of COVID-19 cases, many mathematical models have been developed to study the disease dynamics of the virus. However, despite its role in the spread of COVID-19, many SEIR models neglect to account for human behavior. In this project, we develop a novel mathematical modeling framework for studying the impact of mixing patterns and social behavior on the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, we consider two groups, one exhibiting normal behavior who do not reduce their contacts and another exhibiting altered behavior who reduce their contacts by practicing non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and self-isolation. The dynamics …
Flattening The Curve: The Effects Of Intervention Strategies During Covid-19, Kelly A. Reagan, Rachel J. Pryor, Gonzalo M. Bearman, David M. Chan
Flattening The Curve: The Effects Of Intervention Strategies During Covid-19, Kelly A. Reagan, Rachel J. Pryor, Gonzalo M. Bearman, David M. Chan
Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics
COVID-19 has plagued countries worldwide due to its infectious nature. Social distancing and the use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are two main strategies employed to prevent its spread. A SIR model with a time-dependent transmission rate is implemented to examine the effect of social distancing and PPE use in hospitals. These strategies’ effect on the size and timing of the peak number of infectious individuals are examined as well as the total number of individuals infected by the epidemic. The effect on the epidemic of when social distancing is relaxed is also examined. Overall, social distancing was shown to …