Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons

Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®

Journal of System Simulation

Risk

Publication Year

Articles 1 - 3 of 3

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Simulation Analysis Of Assessment Method For Missile Accuracy, Shuqing Li, Zhili Zhang, Yumiao Wei, Haitao Wang Aug 2021

Simulation Analysis Of Assessment Method For Missile Accuracy, Shuqing Li, Zhili Zhang, Yumiao Wei, Haitao Wang

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The missile accuracy of the falling points is one of the important performance indexes of missile systems, so the assessment method is very important. An improved algorithm for missile accuracy assessment is proposed. Accuracy assessment problem is simplified as a hypothesis check for probability circle, and the accuracy difference coefficients are defined to describe the accuracy difference between the real falling points and the expected situation. Based on the probability circle method, an improved risk assessment method is put forward to balance and minimize producer's risk and consumer's risk. According to sequential check method, this risk assessment …


Attribute Reduction Algorithm On Balancing Profit And Risk, Dexing Wang, Jielong Xu, Hongchun Yuan Sep 2020

Attribute Reduction Algorithm On Balancing Profit And Risk, Dexing Wang, Jielong Xu, Hongchun Yuan

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: Usually it is taken for granted to achieve the maximal profit at the cost of the minimal risk. It is an important problem of how to balance profit and risk, considering introducing profit and risk to attribute reduction so as to find practical algorithms in decision-making process. A decision-theoretic model was built, which could balance profit and risk combining with decision-theoretic rough set model and minimum risk of Bayes decision and find optimal combinations of risk in a certain level of expected profit, then a heuristic algorithm of attribute reduction was proposed, which took the function of balancing …


Real-Time Pricing Strategy Considering The Risk Of Smart Grid, Hongbo Zhu, Gao Yan, Yeming Dai Jan 2019

Real-Time Pricing Strategy Considering The Risk Of Smart Grid, Hongbo Zhu, Gao Yan, Yeming Dai

Journal of System Simulation

Abstract: The real-time electricity price mechanism is an ideal method to adjust the power balance between supply and demand in smart grid. Its implementation has profound impacts on the users' behavior and the operation and management of electricity power grid’s safety. The users’ demand behavior plays a regulatory role in designing real-time electricity pricing strategy. Aiming at maximizing social welfare, the dynamic change of users’ aggregate demand is analyzed, which corrects the electricity risk items in online real-time risk model in the way of changing the individual user’s power fluctuations to all the users’ demand power fluctuations, and the optimization …