Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Bootstrap Prediction Intervals For Multivariate Time Series, Florian Sebastian Rueck

Doctoral Dissertations

"The theory and methodology of obtaining bootstrap prediction intervals for univariate time series using the forward representation of the series is extended to vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Kim has shown that simultaneous prediction intervals based on the Bonferroni method and the backward representation of the time series achieve coverage close to nominal when the parameter estimates are corrected for small sample bias. To utilize his method, it is necessary to assume that the innovations are normally distributed to maintain independence of the innovations associated with the backward representation of the time series. This assumption is not necessary if the forward …