Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Deep Neural Ranking For Crowdsourced Geopolitical Event Forecasting, Giuseppe Nebbione, Derek Doran, Srikanth Nadella, Brandon Minnery

Computer Science and Engineering Faculty Publications

There are many examples of “wisdom of the crowd” effects in which the large number of participants imparts confidence in the collective judgment of the crowd. But how do we form an aggregated judgment when the size of the crowd is limited? Whose judgments do we include, and whose do we accord the most weight? This paper considers this problem in the context of geopolitical event forecasting, where volunteer analysts are queried to give their expertise, confidence, and predictions about the outcome of an event. We develop a forecast aggregation model that integrates topical information about a question, meta-data about …