Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Dataset: Marsh Migration Methodology Development For Wetland Restoration Targeting, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Data

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Synthesis Of Shoreline, Sea Level Rise, And Marsh Migration Data For Wetland Restoration Targeting Final Report, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Data

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Road Accessibility From County Seat Under Flooding: Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, Southside, Molly Mitchell, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Schatt, Marcia Berman

Data

The impacts of recurrent flooding on roadways present challenging social and economic considerations for all coastal jurisdictions. Maintenance, public and private accessibility, evacuation routes, and emergency services are just a few of the common themes local governments are beginning to address for low-lying roadways currently known to flood. The project implements a protocol developed by CCRM to analyze the level at which road flooding may impact communities and their ability to reach key locations at periodic intervals; through the year 2100 in coastal Virginia. Using a network analysis, road accessibility is evaluated at different levels of flooding (at 0.1 meter …

Increasing Use Of Natural And Nature-Based Features To Build Resilience To Storm-Driven Flooding, Final Report, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman, Karen Duhring, Carl Hershner

Reports

In coastal Virginia today, local governments are dealing with recurrent flooding driven by coastal storms, exacerbated by rising sea level and increased frequency of intense rain events. At the same time, they are confronted with increasing demands on limited resources to address issues coastal flooding in concert with water quality, wetlands management, shoreline erosion, habitat, and community needs such as infrastructure, flood insurance and open space. One solution is to maximize the protection of existing and implement new natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) to capitalize on the provision of multiple benefits to address many of these coastal issues.

There are …

Marsh Vulnerability Index And Index Applied To Coastal Shorelines, Molly Mitchell, Donna Marie Bilkovic, Julie Herman, Jessica Hendricks, Evan Hill

Data

The Marsh Vulnerability Index (MVI) is a spatially-resolved assessment of Virginia tidal marsh vulnerabilities from important climate-change drivers – erosion vulnerability, inundation from sea level rise, and salinity intrusion from sea level rise – that can support management decisions. Effects were evaluated for two time-steps (near and longer-term planning horizons): 2050 and 2100.

The Marsh Vulnerability Index Applied to Coastal Shorelines layer extends the MVI evaluation for use in evaluating living shoreline (i.e., created or enhanced shoreline marshes) vulnerability and applies it to tidal shorelines in coastal Virginia. Outputs from this analysis were intended to evaluate the vulnerability of areas …

Coastal Virginia Flooding Duration Maps Current And Projected For 2020, 2050 And 2100, Molly Mitchell, Daniel Schatt, Jessica Hendricks

Data

Geospatial layers displaying annual flooding duration in the coastal zone of Virginia. These were generated from publicly available historical hourly tidal data from the NOAA Tides and Currents website from various tide gauges in the Chesapeake Bay region for the last 20 years. Particular tide gauges were linked to specific localities depending on location. The data was processed to determine average annual flooding duration at various flooding levels. Flood levels corresponding to specified average annual duration levels were then determined and used with lidar-derived digital elevation models to extract flood areas corresponding to the specified ranges of flood duration. Specifically, …

Vims Marsh Migration Final Report + Metadata Sheets, Molly Mitchell, Karinna Nunez, Christine Tombleson, Julie Herman

Reports

Coastal marsh loss is a significant issue globally, due in part to rising sea levels and high levels of coastal human activity. Marshes have natural mechanisms to allow them to adapt to rising sea levels, however, migration across the landscape is one of those mechanisms and is frequently in conflict with human use of the shoreline. Ensuring the persistence of marshes into the future requires an understanding of where marshes are likely to migrate under sea level rise and targeting those areas for conservation and preservation activities. The goal of this project was to 1) compile existing datasets and information …

Effects Of Tidal Flooding On Estuarine Biogeochemistry: Quantifying Flood-Driven Nitrogen Inputs In An Urban, Lower Chesapeake Bay Sub-Tributary, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, Jon Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

VIMS Articles

Sea level rise has increased the frequency of tidal flooding even without accompanying precipitation in many coastal areas worldwide. As the tide rises, inundates the landscape, and then recedes, it can transport organic and inorganic matter between terrestrial systems and adjacent aquatic environments. However, the chemical and biological effects of tidal flooding on urban estuarine systems remain poorly constrained. Here, we provide the first extensive quantification of floodwater nutrient concentrations during a tidal flooding event and estimate the nitrogen (N) loading to the Lafayette River, an urban tidal sub-tributary of the lower Chesapeake Bay (USA). To enable the scale of …

Coastal Natural And Nature-Based Features (Nnbfs) Ranked: Co-Benefits For Coastal Buildings And Target Areas For The Creation Of New Or Restoration Of Nnbfs In Coastal Virginia, Pamela Mason, Jessica Hendricks, Julie Herman

Data

Community resilience to storm-driven coastal flooding is improved with the presence of natural and nature-based features (NNBFs) such as wetlands, wooded areas, living shorelines, and beaches. These natural and created features can provide multiple benefits for a local community, including mitigating the impacts of storm surge and sea-level rise and allowing communities to take advantage of programmatic incentive programs like FEMA’s Community Rating System and nutrient reduction crediting.

As part of a NOAA-funded project NA17NOS4730142, an exportable geospatial protocol and NNBF ranking methodology was developed with the goal of incentivizing the protection and creation of NNBFs across Chesapeake Bay localities …

Road Accessibility From County Seat Under Flooding: Hampton, Newport News, James City, Poquoson, Williamsburg, York, Accomack, Northampton, Alexandria, Fairfax, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Molly Mitchell, Jessica Hendricks, Daniel Schatt, Marcia Berman

Data

The impacts of recurrent flooding on roadways present challenging social and economic considerations for all coastal jurisdictions. Maintenance, public and private accessibility, evacuation routes, and emergency services are just a few of the common themes local governments are beginning to address for low-lying roadways currently known to flood. The project implements a protocol developed by CCRM to analyze the level at which road flooding may impact communities and their ability to reach key locations at periodic intervals; through the year 2100 in coastal Virginia. Using a network analysis, road accessibility is evaluated at different levels of flooding (at 0.1 meter …

Physical Vulnerability Index, Karinna Nunez, Molly Mitchell, Alexander Renaud

Data

The Center for Coastal Resources Management at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science has developed a Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) for the Chesapeake Bay region. PVI provides a broad perspective on the vulnerability of the Tidewater region, creating a composite measure of general flood impact rather than the threat of any one particular storm track. While there have been a number of efforts to categorize physical risk, the analysis behind this physical vulnerability index allows for application at a variety of scales, such as the county or US Census tract level. Calculating physical risk for geopolitically defined boundaries generates values …

Impact Assessment And Management Challenges Of Key Rural Human Health Infrastructure Under Sea Level Rise, Molly Mitchell, Robert Isdell, Julie Herman, Christine Tombleson

VIMS Articles

Accelerating sea level rise in Virginia, United States, will significantly increase the flooding threat to low-lying roads, residences, and critical infrastructure as well as raise the water table, allowing saltwater intrusion into well water and threatening the function of septic fields. Although most of the adaptation work in Virginia has focused on urban economic centers, the majority of the coastline is rural and faces different threats and opportunities to address them compared to urban areas due to their reduced economic assets and their reliance on private infrastructure. In this case study, we assess the potential for geospatially quantifying impact to …

Migration Of The Tidal Marsh Range Under Sea Level Rise For Coastal Virginia, With Land Cover Data, Julie Herman, Molly Mitchell

Data

The layers in this geodatabase were intended to represent the land that is encompassed by the average tidal range as sea level rises in the Virginia coastal region, including Chesapeake Bay and tributaries, the Atlantic Ocean side of the Eastern Shore, and Virginia Beach. The data layers in this geodatabase represent each two foot range of elevation incremented by 0.5 ft (e.g. 0-2 ft, 0.5-2.5 ft, 1-3 ft, etc.) with the current land cover that exists in that range.

ArcGIS metadata is included in the geodatabase.

Further details are provided in the Geodatabase Information file located from the download tab.

Farm Resiliency Education For At-Risk Coastal Areas In The Chesapeake Bay, Kristen Saacke Blunk, Kristen Hughes Evans, Jennifer Miller Herzog, Julie Herman, Carl Hershner, Donna Bilkovic, Kirk J. Havens

Reports

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) in collaboration with its partners, the Land Trust Alliance, Sustainable Chesapeake, and The Nature Conservancy, explored and refined questions critical for advising and guiding landowners who farm within coastal areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, and ultimately, loss of arable cropland in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. While the questions posed are those that agricultural experts across the coastal zones are struggling with, this effort focused on identifying the current state of the science and informational gaps; building current, best professional guidance for landowner conservation program choices; and developing …

Living Shoreline Sea-Level Resiliency: Performance And Adaptive Management Of Existing Sites, C. Scott Hardaway Jr., Donna A. Milligan, Christine A. Wilcox

Reports

The goal of this project is to monitor effectiveness of nature-based resiliency projects such as those that use living shoreline management strategies. Living shoreline strategies can effectively control shoreline erosion while providing water quality benefits and maintaining natural habitat and coastal processes. These ecosystem-based management systems have been the preferred alternative for stabilizing tidal shorelines in the Commonwealth of Virginia since 2011. However, a recent analysis has shown that between 2011 and 2016 only 24% of the permits granted for shore protection were considered living shorelines (ASMFC, 2016). These types of systems may be relatively new to many landowners and …

Forecasting Coastal Water Levels In Virginia, Center For Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute Of Marine Science

Reports

Rivers & Coast is a periodic publication of the Center for Coastal Resources Management, Virginia Institute of Marine Science. The goal of Rivers & Coast is to keep readers well informed of current scientific understanding behind key environmental issues related to watershed rivers and coastal ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay.

Anthropocene Sea Level Change: A History Of Recent Trends Observed In The U.S. East, Gulf, And West Coast Regions, John D. Boon, Molly Mitchell, Jon Derek Loftis, David L. Malmquist

Reports

Relative sea level (RSL) observations since 1969 at U.S. tide stations exhibit trends in RSL rise rate and acceleration that vary in response to both global and regional processes. Trend histories display a high degree of similarity between locations in coastal regions that are experiencing similar processes. With the exception of the U.S. Northeast Coast and Alaska,every other coastal location in the continental U.S. has experienced an upturn in RSL rise rate since 2013-2014 despite wide differences in the magnitude and trending direction of RSL acceleration. High RSL acceleration along the U.S. Northeast Coast has trended downward since 2011 while …

Massive Upland To Wetland Conversion Compensated For Historical Marsh Loss In Chesapeake Bay, Usa, Nathalie W. Schieder, David C. Walters, Matthew L. Kirwan

VIMS Articles

Sea level rise leads to coastal transgression, and the survival of ecosystems depends on their ability to migrate inland faster than they erode and submerge. We compared marsh extent between nineteenth-century maps and modern aerial photographs across the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in North America, and found that Chesapeake marshes have maintained their spatial extent despite relative sea level rise rates that are among the fastest in the world. In the mapped region (i.e., 25% of modern Chesapeake Bay marshland),94 km2of marsh was lost primarily to shoreline erosion,whereas 101 km2of marsh was created by upland drowning.Simple projections over the …

Sea Level Rise: Local Fact Sheet For The Middle Peninsula, Virginia, William G. Reay, Sandra Y. Erdle

Reports

A look at the geologic record of Chesapeake Bay shows a long and dynamic history - from the bolide (asteroid or comet) impact about 35 million years ago which formed the Chesapeake Bay impact crater, to the melting of glaciers beginning about 18,000 years ago, resulting in a continued rise of sea level and drowning of the Susquehanna River valley. Given that the rise in sea level has been occurring for thousands of years and is fundamental to the present formation of the Chesapeake Bay and our local tidal waters, why is there a recent heightened level of concern regarding …