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Using Evolutionary Programming To Generate A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model, Jesse Schaffer
Using Evolutionary Programming To Generate A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model, Jesse Schaffer
Theses and Dissertations
An innovative statistical-dynamical tropical cyclone (TC) intensity model is developed from a large ensemble of algorithms through evolutionary programming (EP). EP mimics the evolutionary principles of genetic information, reproduction, and mutation to develop through selective pressure a population of algorithms with skillful predictor combinations. From this process the 100 most skillful algorithms as determined by root-mean square error on cross-validation data is kept and bias corrected. Bayesian model combination is then used to assign individual weights to a subset of ten algorithms from the 100 best algorithms list, which are chosen to minimize mean-absolute error (MAE) and maximize mean-absolute difference …
Using Evolutionary Programming To Generate A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model, Jesse Schaffer
Using Evolutionary Programming To Generate A Tropical Cyclone Intensity Model, Jesse Schaffer
Theses and Dissertations
An innovative statistical-dynamical tropical cyclone (TC) intensity model is developed from a large ensemble of algorithms through evolutionary programming (EP). EP mimics the evolutionary principles of genetic information, reproduction, and mutation to develop through selective pressure a population of algorithms with skillful predictor combinations. From this process the 100 most skillful algorithms as determined by root-mean square error on cross-validation data is kept and bias corrected. Bayesian model combination is then used to assign individual weights to a subset of ten algorithms from the 100 best algorithms list, which are chosen to minimize mean-absolute error (MAE) and maximize mean-absolute difference …