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Could Cultures Determine The Course Of Epidemics And Explain Waves Of Covid-19?, Md Salman Rahman
Could Cultures Determine The Course Of Epidemics And Explain Waves Of Covid-19?, Md Salman Rahman
Theses and Dissertations
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is an infectious disease that quickly became a pandemic spreading with different patterns in each country. Travel bans, lockdowns, social distancing, and non-essential business closures caused significant economic disruptions and stalled growth worldwide in the pandemic’s first year. In almost every country, public health officials forced and/or encouraged Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) such as contact tracing, social distancing, masks, and quarantine. Human behavioral decision-making regarding social isolation significantly impedes global success in containing the pandemic. This thesis focuses on human behaviors and cultures related to the decision-making of social isolation during the pandemic. …
Empirical Bayes Estimates For The Reproduction Number Of Epidemics, Elijah Lee Hight
Empirical Bayes Estimates For The Reproduction Number Of Epidemics, Elijah Lee Hight
Theses and Dissertations
Epidemic outbreaks can be modelled as a branching process in which the total progeny or outbreak size, follows a Borel-Tanner (BT) distribution. Following a procedure described by Liang (2009), we construct empirical Bayes estimates for when the initial number of infected is a specified value r. Following the construction, we then simulate data and perform a numerical study, assuming BT distribution for the parameter θ, the reproduction number, with an initial outbreak size of three. Simulation results indicate that the empirical estimator suffers from “jumpiness.” We then proceed to monotonize the empirical estimate via a method outlined by Houwelingen (1979). …
Empirical Bayes Estimators And Borel-Tanner Distribution, Celestina Ruby Soltero
Empirical Bayes Estimators And Borel-Tanner Distribution, Celestina Ruby Soltero
Theses and Dissertations
The motivation for this paper stems from the role Borel-Tanner (BT) distribution has as the distribution of the total outbreak number in epidemics modeled by branching processes. We briefly review Borel-Tanner distribution and its applications. In Chapter II we outline the Bayes decision problem, a construction for an Empirical Bayes (EB) estimator proposed by Liang [9] and discuss risk analysis. In Chapter III, the importance of randomization addressed and a classical construction of a monotonized EB estimator proposed by Houwalingen [14] is outlined. Lastly in Chapter IV we use R software to perform a Monte Carlo simulation and conduct a …