Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Optimizing The Safety Margins Governing A Deterministic Design Process While Considering The Effects Of A Future Test And Redesign On Epistemic Model Uncertainty, Nathaniel B. Price

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

At the initial design stage, engineers often rely on low-fidelity models that have high uncertainty. Model uncertainty is reducible and is classified as epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty due to variability is irreducible and classified as aleatory uncertainty. In a deterministic safety-margin-based design approach, uncertainty is implicitly compensated for by using fixed conservative values in place of aleatory variables and ensuring the design satisfies a safety-margin with respect to design constraints. After an initial design is selected, testing (e.g. physical experiment or high-fidelity simulation) is performed to reduce epistemic uncertainty and ensure the design achieves the targeted levels of safety. Testing is …