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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless
Predictability Of African Easterly Waves In An Operational Ensemble Prediction System, Travis J. Elless
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
African easterly waves (AEWs) are the primary synoptic-scale weather feature found in sub-Saharan Africa during boreal summer. Many studies have used observations and idealized models to highlight processes associated with the movement and growth of AEWs, yet there have been few studies documenting the performance of operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for these phenomena. Here, the predictability of AEWs in ECMWF EPS forecasts is assessed during two periods of enhanced AEW activity (July--September 2007--2009 and 2011--2013). Specifically, AEW predictability is analyzed through three main areas of focus: 1) verifying AEW position and intensity forecasts, and assessing their relation to convective …
Global Response To The Madden-Julian Oscillation As A Function Of Phase Speed In Era-Interim Reanalysis And Miroc5 Model Data, Kaitlyn Krzyzaniak
Global Response To The Madden-Julian Oscillation As A Function Of Phase Speed In Era-Interim Reanalysis And Miroc5 Model Data, Kaitlyn Krzyzaniak
Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)
Many authors state that the phase speed of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is near 5ms–1, but observations suggest it varies considerably. MJO propagation typically sets off Rossby wave trains that interact with and alter this extratropical pattern; however, differences in the MJO phase speed could alter the Rossby wave response, leading to a unique response in the extratropics. An understanding of the mechanisms and extratropical responses to variable MJO phase speeds would provide innovative and invaluable insight for subseasonal forecasting.