Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Evaluating And Improving Snow Prediction In The National Water Model In New York State Using New York State Mesonet Data, Sierra Liotta

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

When snow melts, the water drains into nearby streams and rivers which can impact water supply and flood hazards. The National Water Model (NWM) provides high quality forecast data for streamflow in the continental United States using mathematical representations of hydrologic processes. This research evaluates how the land surface model (LSM), Noah-MP, in the NWM simulates snowpack and snowmelt in New York State. To evaluate the representation of snow melt in Noah-MP, we examine point simulations at the New York State Mesonet (NYSM) sites where Noah-MP is forced by NYSM meteorological observations to avoid biases in the meteorological input and …

Investigating The Difference Between Members In The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (Hrrre) During The February 23rd, 2022 Winter Storm, Michael Barletta

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Probabilistic forecasting is one tool that is being used to help create more accurate and understandable forecasts. Using percentages and probabilities allows for more depth to a forecast and allows forecasters to be able to convey a clearer message of what exactly they are expecting. Ensembles are a set of forecast models that have either different starting conditions, boundary conditions or parameter settings. They are one way of creating probabilistic forecasts and can help in the understanding of the likelihood of a specific outcome. Forecasters use ensembles to attempt to analyze the range of possible outcomes and the likelihood of …

The Analysis Of Relationships Between Lightning Strikes And Particulate Matter 2.5 Utilizing Statistical And Numerical Modeling Methods Applied To The 2020 Wildfire Season, Megan Schiede

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Throughout 2020, ambient air pollution was reduced as a result from limiting anthropogenic activities to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Not all air pollution is created the same as measurements of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) were generally unaffected by this reduction due to PM2.5s source from wildfires. Despite influences from COVID-19 lockdowns, rises in PM2.5 concentrations can be attributed to the anomalously active wildfire season of 2020. As climate change progresses, these extraordinarily active seasons can be classified as the “new normal”; thus, comprehension of such events are vital. Given the ability of lightning to naturally cause wildfires, there exists …

Observations And Analysis Of The 7 October 2020 Derecho, Maxim Couillard

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

A serial derecho impacted Upstate New York and western Massachusetts on the afternoon of 7 October 2020, resulting in 120 damaging wind reports alonga 515-km swath. The magnitude and extent of this event was unexpected and not well forecast, motivating a closer examination. This study seeks to better understand the conditions prior to and during the derecho to diagnose what led to such a damaging wind event. The synoptic forcing for this event was an upper- level jet with a broad, negatively tilted trough over the northeast U.S. and southeast Canada. The upper-level pattern provided forcing for a 990-hPa surface …

High-Resolution Simulation Of A Tornado In Bangladesh On 13 May 1996, Katherine Hollinger

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The country of Bangladesh has been known to experience some of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the world. The severe weather season in this region only spans from late March to early May, but can produce significant severe weather outbreaks in that short time. Even with these outbreaks occurring, there has not been extensive analysis completed to evaluate the environmental parameters on these tornado event days in this region.

The goal of this project is to use a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation to evaluate a significant tornado that occurred in the Tangail and Jamalpur districts in Bangladesh …

Examining Terrain Effects On Upstate New York Tornado Events Utilizing High-Resolution Model Simulations, Luke Lebel

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The region at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York is characterized by complex terrain. It has been hypothesized that this complex terrain may have an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has hypothesized that terrain-channeled flow in the Hudson and Mohawk valleys contributed to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during past severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of observations in the region prevented this hypothesis from being robustly tested.

The goal of this study is to further examine this hypothesis and complement …

The Rapid Weakening Of Hurricane Fred (2009), Christina Talamo

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

This research project discusses the rapid weakening of Hurricane Fred, a major Category 3 hurricane that occurred in the Atlantic basin during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Between the days of 9 September and 13 September, Fred remained stationary off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean and never made landfall, all the while consistently weakening over open ocean from a major Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm. In the Atlantic basin, I will define the rapid weakening, or RW, of a tropical cyclone as a decrease in the storm’s maximum sustained winds by 10.3 m s⁻¹ in …

Potential Impact Of Climate Change On The Distribution Of Alpine Tundra In The Adirondack Mountains Of New York, Terry Allard

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Given the potential for significant changes in climate over the next century, understanding how biome locations may shift in response to these changes may be useful in informing conservation efforts. In this work the potential effect of climate change on the distribution of alpine tundra in the Adirondack Mountains of New York is examined. The ecological niche modelling software Maxent was used to analyze the distribution of alpine tundra relative to 30 year 800m PRISM climate normal data and terrain aspect over the Adirondacks. Random points from surveyed areas of alpine tundra in the Adirondacks were used as presence data …

Antecedent North Pacific Jet Regimes Conducive To The Development Of Cool Season Continental U.S. Tornado Outbreaks, Jessica Blair

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The occurrence of tornado outbreaks are often associated with considerable societal and economic impacts. The U.S. averages nearly 1000 tornadoes per year that result in 1500 injuries and 80 fatalities, many of which are associated with outbreak days. Additionally, one outbreak alone can cause millions of dollars in property damage. The location of these outbreaks can vary temporally throughout the cool season (September–May) and can vary substantially in terms of their severity.

This study focuses on continental U.S. tornado outbreaks during the cool season and their relation to the state and evolution of the North Pacific jet (NPJ) stream 0–5 …

Differences Between High Shear / Low Cape Environments In The Northeast Us Favoring Straight-Line Damaging Winds Versus Tornadoes, Michael E. Main, Ross A. Lazear, Lance F. Bosart

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

High shear / low CAPE (HSLC) environments are common in the Northeast US and can occur at any time of year. Severe weather in HSLC environments is notoriously hard to predict, often catching both forecasters and the general public off-guard. The goal of this project is to help forecasters to identify HSLC environments favorable for severe weather in the Northeast US, and to discriminate between HSLC environments that are supportive of tornadoes versus those that favor straight-line damaging winds (SDW). A 10-year HSLC severe weather environmental climatology was created for the Northeast US (New England, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania). …

Understanding Microphysical Processes Occurring In Lake-Effect Snowbands Using Quasi-Vertical Profiles Of Wsr-88d Parameters, Marquette Rocque

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Knowing the composition and microphysical processes that occur in lake-effect precipitation systems is important in making sure models capture these processes accurately, and could aid forecasters in predicting snow totals and snow water equivalents. Many studies have shown that processes such as riming and dendritic growth can be seen in dual-polarization radar data through parameters such as equivalent radar reflectivity factor, differential reflectivity (ZDR), correlation coefficient, and differential phase. This research examines WSR-88D data from the KTYX (Montague, NY) radar located on the Tug Hill Plateau for several long-lake-axis-parallel lake-effect systems from the Ontario Winter Lake-effect Systems (OWLeS) field campaign …

Assessing Effective Rhetoric On Twitter In Relation To Forecast Uncertainty In Hurricane Tracks, Erin K. Lynch

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

A forecast is only as good as the way it is communicated. As the National Weather Service (NWS) transitions to an Impact-Based Communication style, the new public forecasts discuss how to effectively prepare and protect oneself from harm in the face of severe and significant weather. After severe events, meteorologists need to take the time to analyze the language and style of the rhetoric to assess how effective it was at getting people in harm’s way to take protective actions. It is even more important to understand how information was communicated when there is large uncertainty in the forecast. Uncertainty …

Influence Of Topography On Convective Patterns Across The Greater Capital Region Of New York, Rachel O’Donnell

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The greater Albany region is unique in regards to its terrain. The various mountain ranges and river valleys play a significant role in convective patterns due to modification of flow. The purpose of this research is to compare the days of convection, both severe and non-severe, to the large scale flow pattern. Lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network was used to analyze the role terrain plays in organizing convection and the associated lightning. The greater Capital Region was divided into 0.1° grid boxes, and the number of total lightning strikes (both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground) was recorded within that …

Analysis Of Late Summer Heat Waves In The Northeast Us, Tomer Burg

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The climatological temperature maximum and heat wave frequency, defined as three or more consecutive days of maximum temperatures at or above 32 degrees Celsius, often peak around mid to late July in the Northeast United States. However, numerous notable heat waves have occurred in late August into early September, including 1953, 1973, and to a lesser extent 2015. An analysis of daily means of 500 hPa geopotential heights from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis dataset over a 67–year period (1948–2015), in addition to surface temperatures from numerous stations east of the Mississippi River, shows a secondary peak in mean temperatures, geopotential heights …

Exploring Bird Evolution: An Ornithology Lesson For Middle And High School Students, Amanda Marie Colley

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Hands-on learning is believed to be one of the best ways to engage students in science. Science is meant to invoke curiosity and imagination. It is up to educators to teach science in a way that will welcome students rather than scare them away. In this project, a science lab activity was designed, in collaboration with the New York State Museum, to help students better understand the concept of evolution as it appears in birds. Students must measure the leg and wing bones of six different bird species, and find the ratio between each bird’s leg and wing length. Students …

Mjo Influence In Continental United States Temperatures, Ernesto W. Findlay

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Heat and cold episodes in the continental United States (U.S.) affect millions of people each year. Severe episodes can cause crop damage, power failure, heat stress and hypothermia. The predictability of these extreme events decreases significantly after one week. It is, therefore, essential for scientists to discover new ways to forecast these events weeks in advance, which will provide society ample of prior warning to prepare. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the largest drivers of weather in the tropics (Madden and Julian 1971, 1994). Previous studies have found relationships between the MJO and midlatitude modes of climatic variability, …

“Southerly Mohawk Hudson Convergence”- An Exploratory Case Study Of Terrain-Induced Wind Convergence On The Formation Of Thunderstorms In New York’S Capital Region, Christine Elizabeth Bloecker

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Southerly Mohawk-Hudson Convergence (SMHC) is a mesoscale phenomenon over New York’s Capital Region whereby a southwesterly wind flow over Eastern New York is channeled by the mountainous terrain westerly through the Mohawk River Valley and southerly through the Hudson River Valley. When these winds converge over the Capital Region, thunderstorms may suddenly erupt, disrupting air and ground traffic in the area. On rare occasions, these storms may be severe. This is the first comprehensive study to be conducted on this phenomenon. Climatology was compiled and showed that SMHC occurs on average at least twice a year. A case study was …

The Effects Of Downsloping On Storm Precipitation Distributions In The Capital District Of New York State, Kyle James Pallozzi

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Downsloping is a process which has an impact on many precipitation events in the Capital District of New York State. This study examines the effect of 850 hPa and 925 hPa mean vector wind direction, as well as the individual 850 hPa and 925 hPa wind directions observed through soundings, during precipitation events on precipitation distributions in the Capital District of New York State. Results from this study suggests that 850 hPa and 925 hPa mean vector wind as well as the 850 hPa and 925 hPa wind favor downsloping off of the Greens and Taconics, and therefore lower precipitation …

The Rapid Intensification Of Hurricane Gustav (2008), Jason H. Keefer

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Hurricane Gustav was one of two major hurricanes that occurred in the Atlantic basin during the 2008 hurricane season. The storm caused more than $6 billion U. S. dollars of damage in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico from 25 August 2008 to 5 September 2008. The greatest amount of damage and highest number of casualties produced by the storm can be attributed to the rapid intensification of the hurricane. Rapid intensification (RI) of a tropical cyclone is defined as an increase in maximum sustained winds by 15.4 m s⁻¹ (30 kts) in a …

An Evaluation Of Cape Tendency In Tornado Outbreaks, Timothy W. Humphrey, Lance F. Bosart

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Previous studies (e.g., Rasmussen, 2003; Thompson et al., 2003) have examined the impact that instability has on the occurrence of tornadic supercells. However, few studies (e.g., Calas et al., 2000) have examined the impact that the rate of destabilization has on the development of severe convection. Utilizing a CAPE tendency equation derived by Emanuel (1994), this study examines the impact of the rate of atmospheric destabilization on the severity of convection. Comparing six hour analyses of CAPE tendency with observed tornado tracks from the 4-6 May 2007, 5-6 February 2008, and 17 June 2010 tornado outbreaks reveals a potential correlation …

Largescale Precursors To Major Lake Effect Snowstorms Lee Of Lake Erie, Hannah E. Attard, Ross A. Lazear

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Lake‐effect snowstorms are primarily a mesoscale feature; however, major lakeeffect snowstorms are linked closely to their synoptic environment. Thus, a lakeeffect system which lasts for more than 24 h cannot only be explained by the boundary layer; it is also associated with the upper tropospheric flow. This research will address whether major lake‐effect snow events off of Lake Erie can also be associated with large‐scale planetary features several days prior to event onset. The goal is to aid in the forecast process by increasing the accuracy and leadtime of lake‐effect snow forecasts. This study includes 31 cases recorded from the …

A Preliminary Climatology Of Tropical Moisture Exports In The Southern Hemisphere, Alicia M. Bentley, Lance F. Bosart, Jason M. Cordeira

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Heavy precipitation events in the midlatitudes can be supported by the poleward transport of tropical air masses within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. Previous studies have established a climatology of the four preferred pathways of tropical moisture export (TME) events into the midlatitudes over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The present study constructs a similar climatology of TME timing and frequency over the Southern Hemisphere (SH), highlighting three preferential regions for tropicalmidlatitude interaction. These regions correspond to the locations of the: (i) South Pacific convergence zone (Pacific Ocean pathway, PO), (ii) South Atlantic convergence zone (South American pathway, SA), and …

Searching For Melting-Induced Cold-Pool Circulations In An Oklahoma Winter Storm, Gabriel Susca-Lopata

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

This paper investigates the thermodynamic and dynamic impacts of melting precipitation through a case study of an Oklahoma winter storm. On 28 January 2005 a rain and snow event affected the state of Oklahoma. A combination of radiosonde data, wind profiler data, radar imagery and Oklahoma Mesonet surface data show that latent cooling from melting caused the surface temperatures to fall in western Oklahoma while evaporation caused surface cooling in central and eastern Oklahoma. The wind and surface pressure fields in western Oklahoma are analyzed along with radar data from Frederick Air Force Base, and some limited evidence for melting-driven …

Analysis Of Banding In 26-27 December 2010 East Coast Blizzard, Sara Ganetis

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

Blizzard conditions occurred in the New York City metropolitan area and portions of adjacent southern New England on 26-27 December 2010 in conjunction with a strong coastal cyclone. Parts of New Jersey received over 80 cm of snow while Long Island and coastal Connecticut observed wind gusts of over 30 ms-1. The heaviest snow was concentrated along a north-south oriented mesoscale snowband that extended from coastal New Jersey northward through the New York City metropolitan area. This mesoscale snowband, which remained quasi-stationary for approximately 12 h, was associated with strong low and mid-level frontogenetical forcing. In addition to the primary …