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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
Analysis Of Aftershock Parameters For The Alaskan Subduction Zone Tectonic Region, Gabrielle M. Paris
Analysis Of Aftershock Parameters For The Alaskan Subduction Zone Tectonic Region, Gabrielle M. Paris
Geology Undergraduate Honors Theses
Forecasting how many earthquakes will occur following a potentially damaging earthquake helps the public and emergency operators stay safe and make informed decisions. The U.S. Geological Survey issues aftershock forecasts following potentially damaging earthquakes, using models to predict the number of earthquakes that should occur within the next day, week, month, and year with 95% confidence to reflect the uncertainty in aftershock behavior. The USGS considers the forecast to be "successful" when the number of earthquakes observed within the forecasted time period is within the 95% confidence interval. For aftershock sequences that occur along the forearc of the Alaskan subduction …
Analysis Of Aftershock Parameters For The Alaskan Subduction Zone Tectonic Region, Gabrielle M. Paris (They/Them), Richard C. Hugo, Andrew J. Michael
Analysis Of Aftershock Parameters For The Alaskan Subduction Zone Tectonic Region, Gabrielle M. Paris (They/Them), Richard C. Hugo, Andrew J. Michael
Student Research Symposium
On 29 July 2021, a magnitude 8.2 earthquake was felt by over 200 people near Perryville, Alaska. The early aftershock forecasts issued by the USGS use default parameters based on expected productivity within a given tectonic region. These forecasts predicted a slower decrease in aftershock activity than what was observed. Even after the USGS adjusted the aftershock forecast parameters, the forecasts did not improve in the long term. Accurate aftershock predictions are important for maintaining public confidence in disaster alert systems. The question I want to explore is: are the generic parameters used in aftershock forecasting accurately describing the observed …
Gps Constraints On Deformation In Northern Central America From 1999 To 2017, Part 1 – Time-Dependent Modelling Of Large Regional Earthquakes And Their Post-Seismic Effects, A. Ellis, Charles Demets, P. Briole, Beatriz Cosenza, Omar Flores, Shannon Graham, Marco Guzmán-Speziale, Douglas Hernandez, Vladimir Kostoglodov, Peter Lafemina, Neal Lord, Cécile Lasserre, Hélène Lyon-Caen, Manuel Rodriguez Maradiaga, Robert Mccaffrey, Enrique Molina, Jeffrey Rivera, Robert Rogers, Alejandra Staller
Gps Constraints On Deformation In Northern Central America From 1999 To 2017, Part 1 – Time-Dependent Modelling Of Large Regional Earthquakes And Their Post-Seismic Effects, A. Ellis, Charles Demets, P. Briole, Beatriz Cosenza, Omar Flores, Shannon Graham, Marco Guzmán-Speziale, Douglas Hernandez, Vladimir Kostoglodov, Peter Lafemina, Neal Lord, Cécile Lasserre, Hélène Lyon-Caen, Manuel Rodriguez Maradiaga, Robert Mccaffrey, Enrique Molina, Jeffrey Rivera, Robert Rogers, Alejandra Staller
Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations
We use continuous and campaign measurements from 215 GPS sites in northern Central America and southern Mexico to estimate coseismic and afterslip solutions for the 2009 Mw = 7.3 Swan Islands fault strike-slip earthquake and the 2012 Mw = 7.3 El Salvador and Mw = 7.4 Guatemala thrust-faulting earthquakes on the Middle America trench. Our simultaneous, time-dependent inversion of more than 350 000 daily GPS site positions gives the first jointly consistent estimates of the coseismic slips for all three earthquakes, their combined time-dependent post-seismic effects and secular station velocities corrected for both the coseismic and post-seismic deformation. Our geodetic …
Earthquake And Tsunami Forecasts: Relation Of Slow Slip Events To Subsequent Earthquake Rupture, Timothy H. Dixon, Yan Jiang, Rocco Malservisi, Robert Mccaffrey, Nicholas Voss, Marino Protti, Victor Gonzalez
Earthquake And Tsunami Forecasts: Relation Of Slow Slip Events To Subsequent Earthquake Rupture, Timothy H. Dixon, Yan Jiang, Rocco Malservisi, Robert Mccaffrey, Nicholas Voss, Marino Protti, Victor Gonzalez
Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations
The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to …
Interseismic Locking On The Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties From Slow-Slip Events, Robert Mccaffrey
Interseismic Locking On The Hikurangi Subduction Zone: Uncertainties From Slow-Slip Events, Robert Mccaffrey
Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations
lnterseismic locking on the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand is examined in light of alternative assumed locking distributions and the impact of transients (slow-slip and volcanic sources) on temporal and spatial resolution. The modern pattern of locking in the north is poorly resolved and, based on simulations of possible transient behavior, may be an ephemeral feature of the subduction cycle. While there appears to be some contemporary locking in the northern half of the Hikurangi subduction zone (HSZ), its location is model dependent, and hence, its relationship to structure, slow-slip, or any transition zone there is unclear. Simulations of …
Strain Energy Release From The 2011 9.0 Mw Tōhoku Earthquake, Japan, Kenneth M. Cruikshank, Curt D. Peterson
Strain Energy Release From The 2011 9.0 Mw Tōhoku Earthquake, Japan, Kenneth M. Cruikshank, Curt D. Peterson
Geology Faculty Publications and Presentations
The purpose of this paper is to compare the strain energy released due to elastic rebound of the crust from the tragic 2011 9.0 Mw Tōhoku earthquake in Japan with the observed radiated seismic energy. The strain energy was calculated by analyzing coseismic displacements of 1024 GPS stations of the Japanese GEONET network. The value of energy released from the analysis is 1.75 × 1017 J, which is of the same order of magnitude as the USGS-observed radiated seismic energy of 1.9 × 1017 Nm (J). The strain energy method is independent of seismic methods for determining the energy released …