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Old Dominion University

CCPO Publications

2012

Articles 1 - 21 of 21

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett Oct 2012

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating In The Chesapeake Bay? A Demonstation Of A Novel New Approach For Analyzing Sea Level Data, Tal Ezer, William Bryce Corlett

CCPO Publications

Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation, separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis shows that rates of SLR have increased from similar to 1-3 mm y(-1) in the 1930s to similar to 4-10 mm y(-1) in 2011, an acceleration of similar to 0.05-0.10 mm y(-2) that is …

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Developing Integrated Models Of Southern Ocean Food Webs: Including Ecological Complexity, Accounting For Uncertainty And The Importance Of Scale, E. J. Murphy, R. D. Cavanagh, E. E. Hofmann, S. L. Hill, A. J. Constable, D. P. Costa, M. H. Pinkerton, N. M. Johnston, P. N. Trathan, J. M. Klinck, D. A. Wolf-Gladrow, K. L. Daly, O. Maury, S. C. Doney Sep 2012

Developing Integrated Models Of Southern Ocean Food Webs: Including Ecological Complexity, Accounting For Uncertainty And The Importance Of Scale, E. J. Murphy, R. D. Cavanagh, E. E. Hofmann, S. L. Hill, A. J. Constable, D. P. Costa, M. H. Pinkerton, N. M. Johnston, P. N. Trathan, J. M. Klinck, D. A. Wolf-Gladrow, K. L. Daly, O. Maury, S. C. Doney

CCPO Publications

The Southern Ocean supports diverse and unique ecosystems that have been impacted by more than two centuries of exploitation and are now experiencing rapid changes in ocean temperature and seasonal ice cover due to climate warming. Understanding and projecting responses of Southern Ocean marine ecosystems to changing climate conditions and direct human impacts, such as fisheries, requires integrated ecosystem analyses at scales previously unexplored. Here we consider the main ecological and modelling challenges in predicting the responses of Southern Ocean ecosystems to change, and propose three inter-linked focus areas that will advance the development of integrated models for Southern Ocean …

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Understanding The Success And Failure Of Oyster Populations: Periodicities Of Perkinsus Marinus, And Oyster Recruitment, Mortality, And Size, Thomas M. Soniat, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann Aug 2012

Understanding The Success And Failure Of Oyster Populations: Periodicities Of Perkinsus Marinus, And Oyster Recruitment, Mortality, And Size, Thomas M. Soniat, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Ten-year time series (1992 to 2002) of salinity, Dermo disease, and size-class structure and mortality measured for an eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) population at a reef in Bay Tambour, Terrebonne Parish, LA, were analyzed using wavelet techniques to determine dominant frequencies and correlations. Along the Gulf Coast of the United States, Dermo disease (caused by Perkinsus marinus) responds to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate signal through its response to salinity. During the La Nina portion of ENSO, decreased rainfall leads to an increase in salinity, which triggers a rise in Dermo disease prevalence and intensity, producing increased oyster mortality. …

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Sensitivity Of Circumpolar Deep Water Transport And Ice Shelf Basal Melt Along The West Antarctic Peninsula To Changes In The Winds, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann Jul 2012

Sensitivity Of Circumpolar Deep Water Transport And Ice Shelf Basal Melt Along The West Antarctic Peninsula To Changes In The Winds, Michael S. Dinniman, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) can be found near the continental shelf break around most of Antarctica. Advection of this relatively warm water (up to 2 degrees C) across the continental shelf to the base of floating ice shelves is thought to be a critical source of heat for basal melting in some locations. A high-resolution (4 km) regional ocean-sea ice-ice shelf model of the west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) coastal ocean was used to examine the effects of changes in the winds on across-shelf CDW transport and ice shelf basal melt. Increases and decreases in the strength of the wind fields …

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Coupled Physical And Biological Modeling Of Atlantic Surfclam Larval Transport And Sub-Population Connectivity In The Middle Atlantic Bight And Georges Bank, Xinzhong (Peter) Zhang, Dale B. Haidvogel, John M. Klinck, Roger Mann, Eric N. Powell Apr 2012

Coupled Physical And Biological Modeling Of Atlantic Surfclam Larval Transport And Sub-Population Connectivity In The Middle Atlantic Bight And Georges Bank, Xinzhong (Peter) Zhang, Dale B. Haidvogel, John M. Klinck, Roger Mann, Eric N. Powell

CCPO Publications

No abstract provided.

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How Do Marine Protected Area Strategies Influence Metapopulation Genetic Connectivity? A Modeling Study With Oysters, Daphne Munroe, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann Apr 2012

How Do Marine Protected Area Strategies Influence Metapopulation Genetic Connectivity? A Modeling Study With Oysters, Daphne Munroe, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

No abstract provided.

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A Retrospective Analysis Of Sustainable Oyster Harvest From The Louisiana State Primary Seed Grounds, 1999-2010: A Shell-Neutral Modeling Approach, Thomas M. Soniat, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Shengru Tu, Nathan Cooper, Janak Dahal, John Finigan, Benjamin S. Eberline, Jerome F. La Peyre, Megan K. La Peyre, Keith B. Ibos, Brian Lezina, Patrick Banks Mar 2012

A Retrospective Analysis Of Sustainable Oyster Harvest From The Louisiana State Primary Seed Grounds, 1999-2010: A Shell-Neutral Modeling Approach, Thomas M. Soniat, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Eileen E. Hofmann, Shengru Tu, Nathan Cooper, Janak Dahal, John Finigan, Benjamin S. Eberline, Jerome F. La Peyre, Megan K. La Peyre, Keith B. Ibos, Brian Lezina, Patrick Banks

CCPO Publications

No abstract provided.

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A Shell-Neutral Modeling Approach Yields Sustainable Oyster Harvest Estimates: A Retrospective Analysis Of The Louisiana State Primary Seed Grounds, Thomas M. Soniat, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Nathan Cooper, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Eileen E. Hofmann, Janak Dahal, Shengru Tu, John Finigan, Benjamin S. Eberline, Jerome F. La Peyre, Megan K. La Peyre, Fareed Qaddoura Jan 2012

A Shell-Neutral Modeling Approach Yields Sustainable Oyster Harvest Estimates: A Retrospective Analysis Of The Louisiana State Primary Seed Grounds, Thomas M. Soniat, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Nathan Cooper, Mahdi Abdelguerfi, Eileen E. Hofmann, Janak Dahal, Shengru Tu, John Finigan, Benjamin S. Eberline, Jerome F. La Peyre, Megan K. La Peyre, Fareed Qaddoura

CCPO Publications

A numerical model is presented that defines a sustainability criterion as no net loss of shell, and calculates a sustainable harvest of seed (<75 mm) and sack or market oysters (>= 75 mm). Stock assessments of the Primary State Seed Grounds conducted east of the Mississippi from 2009 to 2011 show a general trend toward decreasing abundance of sack and seed oysters. Retrospective simulations provide estimates of annual sustainable harvests. Comparisons of simulated sustainable harvests with actual harvests show a trend toward unsustainable harvests toward the end of the time series. Stock assessments combined with shell-neutral models can be used to estimate sustainable harvest and manage …

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Oceanic Controls On The Mass Balance Of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Laurie Padman, Daniel P. Costs, M. S. Dinniman, Helen A. Fricker, Michael E. Goebel, Luis A. Huckstadt, Angelika Humbert, Ian Joughin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ted Scambos, Michiel R. Van Den Broeke Jan 2012

Oceanic Controls On The Mass Balance Of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Laurie Padman, Daniel P. Costs, M. S. Dinniman, Helen A. Fricker, Michael E. Goebel, Luis A. Huckstadt, Angelika Humbert, Ian Joughin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg, Ted Scambos, Michiel R. Van Den Broeke

CCPO Publications

Several Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice shelves have lost significant fractions of their volume over the past decades, coincident with rapid regional climate change. Wilkins Ice Shelf (WIS), on the western side of the AP, is the most recent, experiencing a sequence of large calving events in 2008 and 2009. We analyze the mass balance for WIS for the period 1992-2008 and find that the averaged rate of ice-shelf thinning was similar to 0.8 m a(-1), driven by a mean basal melt rate of < w(b)> = 1.3 +/- 0.4 m a(-1). Interannual variability was large, associated with changes in both surface mass …

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Can Oysters Crassostrea Virginica Develop Resistance To Dermo Disease In The Field: The Impediment Posed By Climate Cycles, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Ximing Guo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Susan E. Ford, David Bushek Jan 2012

Can Oysters Crassostrea Virginica Develop Resistance To Dermo Disease In The Field: The Impediment Posed By Climate Cycles, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Ximing Guo, Eileen E. Hofmann, Susan E. Ford, David Bushek

CCPO Publications

Populations of eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, are commonly limited by mortality from dermo disease. Little development of resistance to Perkinsus marinus, the dermo pathogen, has occurred, despite the high mortality rates and frequency of epizootics. Can the tendency of the parasite to exhibit cyclic epizootics limit the oyster's response to the disease despite the presence of alleles apparently conferring disease resistance? We utilize a gene-based population dynamics model to simulate the development of disease resistance in Crassostrea virginica populations exposed to cyclic mortality encompassing periodicities expected of dermo disease over the geographic range at which epizootics have been …

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Modeling The Dispersal Of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea Virginica) Larvae In Delaware Bay, Diego A. Narvaez, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann, John Wilkin, Dale B. Haidvogel Jan 2012

Modeling The Dispersal Of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea Virginica) Larvae In Delaware Bay, Diego A. Narvaez, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann, John Wilkin, Dale B. Haidvogel

CCPO Publications

The interactions of circulation and growth processes in determining the horizontal distribution of eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) larvae in the Delaware Bay estuary were investigated with a coupled circulation-individual-based larvae model that used environmental conditions from the spawning seasons (mid-June to mid-September) of 1984, 1985, 1986, 2000, and 2001. Particles, representing oyster larvae, were released at five-day intervals from areas in Delaware Bay that correspond to natural oyster reefs. The simulated larval development time was used to estimate potential larval success, determined by the percent of larvae that successfully reached settlement size (330 µm) within the planktonic larval …

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Circulation And Behavior Controls On Dispersal Of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea Virginica) Larvae In Delaware Bay, Diego A. Narvaez, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann, John Wilkin, Dale B. Haidvogel Jan 2012

Circulation And Behavior Controls On Dispersal Of Eastern Oyster (Crassostrea Virginica) Larvae In Delaware Bay, Diego A. Narvaez, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann, John Wilkin, Dale B. Haidvogel

CCPO Publications

The degree of genetic connectivity among populations in a metapopulation has direct consequences for species evolution, development of disease resistance, and capacity of a metapopulation to adapt to climate change. This study used a metapopulation model that integrates population dynamics, dispersal, and genetics within an individual-based model framework to examine the mechanisms and dynamics of genetic connectivity within a metapopulation. The model was parameterized to simulate four populations of oysters (Crassostrea virginica) from Delaware Bay on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Differences among the four populations include a strong spatial gradient in mortality, a spatial gradient …

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Circulation And Water Properties And Their Relationship To The Oyster Disease Msx In Delaware Bay, Zhiren Wang, Dale B. Haidvogel, David Bushek, Susan E. Ford, Eileen E. Hofmann, Eric N. Powell, John Wilkin Jan 2012

Circulation And Water Properties And Their Relationship To The Oyster Disease Msx In Delaware Bay, Zhiren Wang, Dale B. Haidvogel, David Bushek, Susan E. Ford, Eileen E. Hofmann, Eric N. Powell, John Wilkin

CCPO Publications

We apply a high-resolution hydro-dynamical model to investigate the role of physical factors influencing infection prevalence of Haplosporidium nelsoni, causative agent of MSX disease in the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), in Delaware Bay, USA. Validation studies conducted for the years 2000 and 2010-2011 confirm that the model, based upon the Regional Ocean Modeling System, has significant skill in the recovery of observed water level, temperature, salinity, and velocity. Multi-year simulations are performed for periods representing temporal and spatial variations in H. nelsoni infection prevalence (1974-76, 1979-81, 1984-86, 1990-92, and 2006-09) to assess the degree to which the …

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The Rise And Fall Of Crassostrea Virginica Oyster Reefs: The Role Of Disease And Fishing In Their Demise And A Vignette On Their Management, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Kathryn Ashton-Alcox, Eileen E. Hofmann, Jason Morson Jan 2012

The Rise And Fall Of Crassostrea Virginica Oyster Reefs: The Role Of Disease And Fishing In Their Demise And A Vignette On Their Management, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Kathryn Ashton-Alcox, Eileen E. Hofmann, Jason Morson

CCPO Publications

We describe a model designed to simulate the shell carbonate budget of an oyster reef.We identify five parameters descriptive of basic characteristics of the shell carbonate budget of a reef that limit simulation accuracy. Two describe the TAZ (taphonomically-active zone) and the distribution of shell carbonate within it. One is the taphonomic rate in the TAZ. Two determine the volume contribution of shell carbonate and the taphonomic loss rate within the reef framework. For Mid-Atlantic estuaries, model simulations suggest that reef accretion only occurs if oyster abundance is near carrying capacity. Simulations further suggest that reef accretion is infeasible for …

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Does Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Structure Life History Connectivity In Antarctic Toothfish (Dissostichus Mawsoni)?, Julian Ashford, Michael S. Dinniman, Cassandra Brooks, Allen H. Andrews, Eileen E. Hofmann, Gregor Cailliet, Christopher Jones, Nakul Ramanna Jan 2012

Does Large-Scale Ocean Circulation Structure Life History Connectivity In Antarctic Toothfish (Dissostichus Mawsoni)?, Julian Ashford, Michael S. Dinniman, Cassandra Brooks, Allen H. Andrews, Eileen E. Hofmann, Gregor Cailliet, Christopher Jones, Nakul Ramanna

CCPO Publications

A multidisciplinary approach incorporating otolith chemistry, age data, and numerical Lagrangian particle simulations indicated a single, self-recruiting population of Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Southeast Pacific Basin (SPB) and Ross Sea, with a life history structured by the large-scale circulation. Chemistry deposited prior to capture along otolith edges demonstrated strong environmental heterogeneity, yet the chemistry in otolith nuclei, deposited during early life, showed no differences. Age data showed only adult fish in catches on the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge in the SPB and structuring of life stages consistent with transport pathways from the northern Ross Sea. Lagrangian particle simulations …

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Could Satellite Altimetry Have Improved Early Detection And Warning Of The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami?, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, O. A. Godin, E. Gica, V. V. Titov, B. J. Haines, S. D. Desai Jan 2012

Could Satellite Altimetry Have Improved Early Detection And Warning Of The 2011 Tohoku Tsunami?, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, O. A. Godin, E. Gica, V. V. Titov, B. J. Haines, S. D. Desai

CCPO Publications

The 2011 Tohoku tsunami devastated Japan and affected coastal populations all around the Pacific Ocean. Accurate early warning of an impending tsunami requires the detection of the tsunami in the open ocean. While the lead-time was not sufficient for use in warning coastal populations in Japan, satellite altimetry observations of the tsunami could have been used to improve predictions and warnings for other affected areas. By comparing to both model results and historical satellite altimeter data, we use near-real-time satellite altimeter measurements to demonstrate the potential for detecting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami within a few hours of the tsunami being …

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A Conceptual Model Of An Arctic Sea, P. St-Laurent, F. Straneo, D. G. Barber Jan 2012

A Conceptual Model Of An Arctic Sea, P. St-Laurent, F. Straneo, D. G. Barber

CCPO Publications

We propose a conceptual model for an Arctic sea that is driven by river runoff, atmospheric fluxes, sea ice melt/growth, and winds. The model domain is divided into two areas, the interior and boundary regions, that are coupled through Ekman and eddy fluxes of buoyancy. The model is applied to Hudson and James Bays (HJB, a large inland basin in northeastern Canada) for the period 1979-2007. Several yearlong records from instruments moored within HJB show that the model results are consistent with the real system. The model notably reproduces the seasonal migration of the halocline, the baroclinic boundary current, spatial …

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Impact Of Tide-Topography Interactions On Basal Melting Of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, R. D. Mueller, Laurie Padman, Michael S. Dinniman, S. Y. Erofeeva, Helen A. Fricker, M. A. King Jan 2012

Impact Of Tide-Topography Interactions On Basal Melting Of Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica, R. D. Mueller, Laurie Padman, Michael S. Dinniman, S. Y. Erofeeva, Helen A. Fricker, M. A. King

CCPO Publications

Basal melting of ice shelves around Antarctica contributes to formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and can affect global sea level by altering the offshore flow of grounded ice streams and glaciers. Tides influence ice shelf basal melt rate (w(b)) by contributing to ocean mixing and mean circulation as well as thermohaline exchanges with the ice shelf. We use a three-dimensional ocean model, thermodynamically coupled to a nonevolving ice shelf, to investigate the relationship between topography, tides, and w(b) for Larsen C Ice Shelf (LCIS) in the northwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Using our best estimates of ice shelf thickness and seabed …

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End-To-End Models: Management Applications, John H. Steele, Eileen E. Hofmann, Dian J. Gifford Jan 2012

End-To-End Models: Management Applications, John H. Steele, Eileen E. Hofmann, Dian J. Gifford

CCPO Publications

Preface to the 2012 issue of Progress in Oceanography.

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Improving Sea Level Reconstructions Using Non-Sea Level Measurements, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K.-Y. Kim Jan 2012

Improving Sea Level Reconstructions Using Non-Sea Level Measurements, B. D. Hamlington, R. R. Leben, K.-Y. Kim

CCPO Publications

We present a new method for reconstructing sea level involving cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs). While we show results from a CSEOF reconstruction using basis functions computed from satellite altimetry and subsequently fit to tide gauge data, our focus is on how other ocean observations such as sea surface temperature can be leveraged to create an improved reconstructed sea level data set spanning the time period from 1900 to present. Basis functions are computed using satellite measurements of sea surface temperature, and using a simple regression technique, these basis functions are transformed to represent a similar temporal evolution to corresponding …

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Analysis Of Relative Sea Level Variations And Trends In The Chesapeake Bay: Is There Evidence For Acceleration In Sea Level Rise?, Tal Ezer, William B. Corlett Jan 2012

Analysis Of Relative Sea Level Variations And Trends In The Chesapeake Bay: Is There Evidence For Acceleration In Sea Level Rise?, Tal Ezer, William B. Corlett

CCPO Publications

Over the past few decades the pace of relative sea level rise (SLR) in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) has been 2-3 times faster than that of the globally mean absolute sea level. Our study is part of ongoing research that tries to determine if this SLR trend is continuing at the same pace, slowing down (SLR deceleration) or speeding up (SLR acceleration). We introduce a new analysis method for sea level data that is based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT); the analysis separates the SLR trend from other oscillating modes of different scales. Bootstrap calculations using …

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