Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Identification And Verification Of Hazardous Convective Cells Over Oceans Using Visible And Infrared Satellite Observations, Michael F. Donovan, Earle R. Williams, Cathy Kessinger, Gary Blackburn, Paul H. Herzegh, Richard L. Bankert, Steve Miller, Frederick R. Mosher

Publications

Three algorithms based on geostationary visible and infrared (IR) observations are used to identify convective cells that do (or may) present a hazard to aviation over the oceans. The performance of these algorithms in detecting potentially hazardous cells is determined through verification with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations of lightning and radar reflectivity, which provide internal information about the convective cells. The probability of detection of hazardous cells using the satellite algorithms can exceed 90% when lightning is used as a criterion for hazard, but the false-alarm ratio with all three algorithms is consistently large (40%), thereby exaggerating …