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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry
The Wargaming Commodity Course Of Action Automated Analysis Method, William T. Deberry
Theses and Dissertations
This research presents the Wargaming Commodity Course of Action Automated Analysis Method (WCCAAM), a novel approach to assist wargame commanders in developing and analyzing courses of action (COAs) through semi-automation of the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). MDMP is a seven-step iterative method that commanders and mission partners follow to build an operational course of action to achieve strategic objectives. MDMP requires time, resources, and coordination – all competing items the commander weighs to make the optimal decision. WCCAAM receives the MDMP's Mission Analysis phase as input, converts the wargame into a directed graph, processes a multi-commodity flow algorithm on …
Sample Size Requirements And Considerations For Models To Assess Human-Machine System Performance, Jennifer S. G. Lopez
Sample Size Requirements And Considerations For Models To Assess Human-Machine System Performance, Jennifer S. G. Lopez
Theses and Dissertations
Hierarchical Linear Models (HLMs), also known as multi-level models, are an extension of multiple regression analysis and can aid in the understanding of human and machine workloads of a system. These models allow for prediction and testing in systems with hierarchies of two or more levels. The complex interrelated variability of these multi-level models exists in operational settings, such as the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System Full Motion Video (AF DCGS FMV) community which is composed of individuals (Level-1), groups (Level-2), units (Level-3), and organizations (Level-4). Through the development of sample size requirements and considerations for multi-level models, this …
Modeling Multimodal Failure Effects Of Complex Systems Using Polyweibull Distribution, Daniel A. Timme
Modeling Multimodal Failure Effects Of Complex Systems Using Polyweibull Distribution, Daniel A. Timme
Theses and Dissertations
The Department of Defense (DoD) enlists multiple complex systems across each of their departments. Between the aging systems going through an overhaul and emerging new systems, quality assurance to complete the mission and secure the nation‘s objectives is an absolute necessity. The U.S. Air Force‘s increased interest in Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) and the Space Warfighting domain are current examples of complex systems that must maintain high reliability and sustainability in order to complete missions moving forward. DoD systems continue to grow in complexity with an increasing number of components and parts in more complex arrangements. Bathtub-shaped hazard functions arise …
Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez
Predicting Schedule Duration For Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation To Initial Operational Capability, Christopher A. Jimenez
Theses and Dissertations
Accurately predicting the most realistic schedule for a defense acquisitions program is an extremely difficult task considering the inherent risk and uncertainties present in the early stages of a program. We use a multiple regression analysis to predict schedule duration in a defense acquisition program. The prediction scope of our research is limited to predicting schedule duration from program initiation to initial operation capability (IOC).We use the data from 56 programs across all services, which was acquired from a SAR database created by RAND. We were able to achieve an R2 of 0.429 and an Adjusted R2 of 0.384 in …
Theory Of Effectiveness Measurement, Richard K. Bullock
Theory Of Effectiveness Measurement, Richard K. Bullock
Theses and Dissertations
Effectiveness measures provide decision makers feedback on the impact of deliberate actions and affect critical issues such as allocation of scarce resources, as well as whether to maintain or change existing strategy. Currently, however, there is no formal foundation for formulating effectiveness measures. This research presents a new framework for effectiveness measurement from both a theoretical and practical view. First, accepted effects-based principles, as well as fundamental measurement concepts are combined into a general, domain independent, effectiveness measurement methodology. This is accomplished by defining effectiveness measurement as the difference, or conceptual distance from a given system state to some reference …