Physical Sciences and Mathematics | Open Access Articles

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …

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Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River-Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity …

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Estimating Economic Losses To Tourism In Africa From The Illegal Killing Of Elephants, Robin Naidoo, Brendan Fisher, Andrea Manica, Andrew Balmford

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Recent surveys suggest tens of thousands of elephants are being poached annually across Africa, putting the two species at risk across much of their range. Although the financial motivations for ivory poaching are clear, the economic benefits of elephant conservation are poorly understood. We use Bayesian statistical modelling of tourist visits to protected areas, to quantify the lost economic benefits that poached elephants would have delivered to African countries via tourism. Our results show these figures are substantial (∼USD $25 million annually), and that the lost benefits exceed the anti-poaching costs necessary to stop elephant declines across the continent's savannah …

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Disaggregating The Evidence Linking Biodiversity And Ecosystem Services, Taylor H. Ricketts, Keri B. Watson, Insu Koh, Alicia M. Ellis, Charles C. Nicholson, Stephen Posner, Leif L. Richardson, Laura J. Sonter

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Ecosystem services (ES) are an increasingly popular policy framework for connecting biodiversity with human well-being. These efforts typically assume that biodiversity and ES covary, but the relationship between them remains remarkably unclear. Here we analyse >500 recent papers and show that reported relationships differ among ES, methods of measuring biodiversity and ES, and three different approaches to linking them (spatial correlations, management comparisons and functional experiments). For spatial correlations, biodiversity relates more strongly to measures of ES supply than to resulting human benefits. For management comparisons, biodiversity of â € service providers' predicts ES more often than biodiversity of functionally …

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Opportunities For Biodiversity Gains Under The World's Largest Reforestation Programme, Fangyuan Hua, Xiaoyang Wang, Xinlei Zheng, Brendan Fisher, Lin Wang, Jianguo Zhu, Ya Tang, Douglas W. Yu, David S. Wilcove

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Reforestation is a critical means of addressing the environmental and social problems of deforestation. China's Grain-for-Green Program (GFGP) is the world's largest reforestation scheme. Here we provide the first nationwide assessment of the tree composition of GFGP forests and the first combined ecological and economic study aimed at understanding GFGP's biodiversity implications. Across China, GFGP forests are overwhelmingly monocultures or compositionally simple mixed forests. Focusing on birds and bees in Sichuan Province, we find that GFGP reforestation results in modest gains (via mixed forest) and losses (via monocultures) of bird diversity, along with major losses of bee diversity. Moreover, all …

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Limits Of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Calculators To Predict Soil N2O And Ch4 Fluxes In Tropical Agriculture, Meryl Richards, Ruth Metzel, Ngonidzashe Chirinda, Proyuth Ly, George Nyamadzawo, Quynh Duong Vu, Andreas De Neergaard, Myles Oelofse, Eva Wollenberg, Emma Keller, Daniella Malin, Jørgen E. Olesen, Jonathan Hillier, Todd S. Rosenstock

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Demand for tools to rapidly assess greenhouse gas impacts from policy and technological change in the agricultural sector has catalyzed the development of ' GHG calculators'-simple accounting approaches that use a mix of emission factors and empirical models to calculate GHG emissions with minimal input data. GHG calculators, however, rely on models calibrated from measurements conducted overwhelmingly under temperate, developed country conditions. Here we show that GHG calculators may poorly estimate emissions in tropical developing countries by comparing calculator predictions against measurements from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Estimates based on GHG calculators were greater than measurements in 70% of …

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Do Insect Outbreaks Reduce The Severity Of Subsequent Forest Fires?, Garrett W. Meigs, Harold S.J. Zald, John L. Campbell, William S. Keeton, Robert E. Kennedy

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Understanding the causes and consequences of rapid environmental change is an essential scientific frontier, particularly given the threat of climate- and land use-induced changes in disturbance regimes. In western North America, recent widespread insect outbreaks and wildfires have sparked acute concerns about potential insect-fire interactions. Although previous research shows that insect activity typically does not increase wildfire likelihood, key uncertainties remain regarding insect effects on wildfire severity (i.e., ecological impact). Recent assessments indicate that outbreak severity and burn severity are not strongly associated, but these studies have been limited to specific insect or fire events. Here, we present a regional …

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The Moral Basis For Conservation - Reflections On Dickman Et Al., Douglas Sheil, Jane Cohen, Carol J.Pierce Colfer, David Price, Rajindra Puri, Manuel Ruiz-Perez, Yulia Sugandi, Paul Vedeld, Eva Wollenberg, Yurdi Yasmi

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

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Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Estimating Economic Losses To Tourism In Africa From The Illegal Killing Of Elephants, Robin Naidoo, Brendan Fisher, Andrea Manica, Andrew Balmford

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Disaggregating The Evidence Linking Biodiversity And Ecosystem Services, Taylor H. Ricketts, Keri B. Watson, Insu Koh, Alicia M. Ellis, Charles C. Nicholson, Stephen Posner, Leif L. Richardson, Laura J. Sonter

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Opportunities For Biodiversity Gains Under The World's Largest Reforestation Programme, Fangyuan Hua, Xiaoyang Wang, Xinlei Zheng, Brendan Fisher, Lin Wang, Jianguo Zhu, Ya Tang, Douglas W. Yu, David S. Wilcove

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Do Insect Outbreaks Reduce The Severity Of Subsequent Forest Fires?, Garrett W. Meigs, Harold S.J. Zald, John L. Campbell, William S. Keeton, Robert E. Kennedy

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

The Moral Basis For Conservation - Reflections On Dickman Et Al., Douglas Sheil, Jane Cohen, Carol J.Pierce Colfer, David Price, Rajindra Puri, Manuel Ruiz-Perez, Yulia Sugandi, Paul Vedeld, Eva Wollenberg, Yurdi Yasmi

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications