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An Adaptive Bayesian Approach To Bernoulli-Response Clinical Trials, Andrew W. Stacey

Theses and Dissertations

Traditional clinical trials have been inefficient in their methods of dose finding and dose allocation. In this paper a four-parameter logistic equation is used to model the outcome of Bernoulli-response clinical trials. A Bayesian adaptive design is used to fit the logistic equation to the dose-response curve of Phase II and Phase III clinical trials. Because of inherent restrictions in the logistic model, symmetric candidate densities cannot be used, thereby creating asymmetric jumping rules inside the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. An order restricted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is implemented to account for these limitations. Modeling clinical trials in a Bayesian framework …