Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

A Critique Of The False-Positive Report Probability, Joseph Lucke

Joseph Lucke

The false positive report probability (FPRP) was proposed as a Bayesian prophylactic against false reports of significant associations. Unfortunately, the derivation of the FPRP is unsound. A heuristic derivation fails to make its point, and a formal derivation reveals a probabilistic misrepresentation of an observation. As a result, the FPRP can yield serious inferential errors. In particular, the FPRP can use an observation that is many times more likely under the null hypothesis than under the alternative to infer that the null hypothesis is far less probable than the alternative. Contrary to its intended purpose, the FPRP can promote false …

Evaluation Of Heterogeneity In Pharmacotherapy Trials For Drug Dependence: A Bayesian Approach, Charles E. Green, F. G. Moeller, J. M. Schmitz, Joseph F. Lucke, S. D. Lane, A. C. Swann, Robert E. Lasky, Joseph P. Carbonari

Joseph Lucke

Difficulty identifying effective pharmacotherapies for cocaine dependence has led to suggestions that subgroup differences may account for some of the heterogeneity in treatment response. Well-attested methodologicalifficulties associated with these analyses recommend the use of Bayesian statistical reasoning for evaluation of salient interaction effects.

Methods: A secondary data analysis of a previously published, double-blind, randomized controlled trial examines the interaction of decision-making, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task, and citalopram in increasing longest sustained abstinence from cocaine use.

Results: Bayesian analysis indicated that there was a 99% chance that improved decision-making enhances response to citalopram. Given the strong positive nature …

Bayesian Statistics, Joseph F. Lucke

Joseph Lucke

No abstract provided.