Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

The Price Is Right: Analyzing Bidding Behavior On Contestants’ Row, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The TV game show “The Price is Right” features a bidding auction called Contestant’s Row that rewards the player (out of four) who bids closest to an item’s value without overbidding. By exploring 903 game outcomes from the 2000–2001 season, we show how player strategies are significantly inefficient, and compare the empirical results to probability outcomes for optimal bid strategies found in a recent study. Findings show that the last bidder would do better using the naïve strategy of bidding a dollar more than the highest of the three bids. We apply the EM algorithm in a novel way to …

Critical Fault-Detecting Time Evaluation In Software With Discrete Compound Poisson Models, Min-Hsiung Hsieh, Shuen-Lin Jeng, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Software developers predict their product’s failure rate using reliability growth models that are typically based on nonhomogeneous Poisson (NHP) processes. In this article, we extend that practice to a nonhomogeneous discrete-compound Poisson process that allows for multiple faults of a system at the same time point. Along with traditional reliability metrics such as average number of failures in a time interval, we propose an alternative reliability index called critical fault-detecting time in order to provide more information for software managers making software quality evaluation and critical market policy decisions. We illustrate the significant potential for improved analysis using wireless failure …

A Probability Model For Strategic Bidding On The Price Is Right, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The TV game show “The Price is Right” features a bidding auction called “Contestants’ Row” that rewards the player (out of 4) who bids closest to an item’s value, without overbidding. This paper considers ways in which players can maximize a winning probability based on the player's bidding order. We consider marginal strategies in which players assume opponents are bidding individually perceived values of the merchandise. Based on preceding bids of others, players have information available to create strategies. We consider conditional strategies in which players adjust bids knowing other players are using strategies. The last bidder has a large …

A Comprehensive Analysis Of Team Streakiness In Major League Baseball: 1962-2016, Paul H. Kvam, Zezhong Chen

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

A baseball team would be considered “streaky” if its record exhibits an unusually high number of consecutive wins or losses, compared to what might be expected if the team’s performance does not really depend on whether or not they won their previous game. If an average team in Major League Baseball (i.e., with a record of 81-81) is not streaky, we assume its win probability would be stable at around 50% for most games, outside of peculiar details of day-to-day outcomes, such as whether the game is home or away, who is the starting pitcher, and so on.

In this …

A Hybrid Agent-Based And Differential Equations Model For Simulating Antibiotic Resistance In A Hospital Ward, Lester Caudill, Barry Lawson

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Serious infections due to antibiotic-resistant bacteria are pervasive, and of particular concern within hospital units due to frequent interaction among health-care workers and patients. Such nosocomial infections are difficult to eliminate because of inconsistent disinfection procedures and frequent interactions among infected persons, and because ill-chosen antibiotic treatment strategies can lead to a growth of resistant bacterial strains. Clinical studies to address these concerns have several issues, but chief among them are the effects on the patients involved. Realistic simulation models offer an attractive alternative. This paper presents a hybrid simulation model of antibiotic resistant infections in a hospital ward, combining …

A Superposed Log-Linear Failure Intensity Model For Repairable Artillery Systems, Byeong Min Mun, Suk Joo Bae, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article investigates complex repairable artillery systems that include several failure modes. We derive a superposed process based on a mixture of nonhomogeneous Poisson processes in a minimal repair model. This allows for a bathtub-shaped failure intensity that models artillery data better than currently used methods. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate model parameters and construct confidence intervals for the cumulative intensity of the superposed process. Finally, we propose an optimal maintenance policy for repairable systems with bathtub-shaped intensity and apply it to the artillery-failure data.

Stress-Lifetime Joint Distribution Model For Performance Degradation Failure, Quan Sun, Yanzhen Tang, Jing Feng, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The high energy density self-healing metallized film pulse capacitor has been applied to all kinds of laser facilities for their power conditioning systems under several stress levels, such as 23kV, 30kV and 35kV, whose reliability performance and maintenance costs are affected by the reliability of capacitors. Due to the costs and time restriction, how to assess the reliability of highly reliable capacitors under a certain stress level as soon as possible becomes a challenge. Accelerated degradation test provides a way to predict its lifetime and reliability effectively. A model called stress-lifetime joint distribution model and an analysis method based on …

Comparing Hall Of Fame Baseball Players Using Most Valuable Player Ranks, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

We propose a rank-based statistical procedure for comparing performances of top major league baseball players who performed in different eras. The model is based on using the player ranks from voting results for the most valuable player awards in the American and National Leagues. The current voting procedure has remained the same since 1932, so the analysis regards only data for players whose career blossomed after that time. Because the analysis is based on quantiles, its basis is nonparametric and relies on a simple link function. Results are stratified by fielding position, and we compare 73 Hall of Fame players …

Adjusted Empirical Likelihood Models With Estimating Equations For Accelerated Life Tests, Ni Wang, Jye-Chyi Lu, Di Chen, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article proposes an adjusted empirical likelihood estimation (AMELE) method to model and analyze accelerated life testing data. This approach flexibly and rigorously incorporates distribution assumptions and regression structures by estimating equations within a semiparametric estimation framework. An efficient method is provided to compute the empirical likelihood estimates, and asymptotic properties are studied. Real-life examples and numerical studies demonstrate the advantage of the proposed methodology.

Adjusted Hazard Rate Estimator Based On A Known Censoring Probability, Ülkü Gürler, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In most reliability studies involving censoring, one assumes that censoring probabilities are unknown. We derive a nonparametric estimator for the survival function when information regarding censoring frequency is available. The estimator is constructed by adjusting the Nelson–Aalen estimator to incorporate censoring information. Our results indicate significant improvements can be achieved if available information regarding censoring is used. We compare this model to the Koziol–Green model, which is also based on a form of proportional hazards for the lifetime and censoring distributions. Two examples of survival data help to illustrate the differences in the estimation techniques.

Multi-Cause Degradation Path Model: A Case Study On Rubidium Lamp Degradation, Sun Quan, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

At the core of satellite rubidium standard clocks is the rubidium lamp, which is a critical piece of equipment in a satellite navigation system. There are many challenges in understanding and improving the reliability of the rubidium lamp, including the extensive lifetime requirement and the dearth of samples available for destructive life tests. Experimenters rely on degradation experiments to assess the lifetime distribution of highly reliable products that seem unlikely to fail under the normal stress conditions, because degradation data can provide extra information about product reliability. Based on recent research on the rubidium lamp, this article presents a multi‐cause …

Electoral Voting And Population Distribution In The United States, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In the United States, the electoral system for determining the president is controversial and sometimes confusing to voters keeping track of election outcomes. Instead of directly counting votes to decide the winner of a presidential election, individual states send a representative number of electors to the Electoral College, and they are trusted to cast their collective vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in their state.

Under the current rules, the value of a vote differs from state to state. A large state such as California has an immense effect on the national election, but, compared to a …

Extending The Skill Test For Disease Diagnosis, Shu-Chuan Lin, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

For diagnostic tests, we present an extension to the skill plot introduced by Briggs and Zaretski (Biometrics 2008; 64:250–261). The method is motivated by diagnostic measures for osteopetrosis in a study summarized by Hans et al. (The Lancet 1996; 348:511–514). Diagnostic test accuracy is typically defined using the area (or partial area) under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. If partial area is used, the resulting statistic can be highly subjective because the focus region of the ROC curve corresponds to a set of low false‐positive rates that are chosen by the experimenter. This paper introduces a more …

Load Sharing Models, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Consider a system of components whose lifetimes are governed by a probability distribution. Load sharing refers to a model of stochastic interdependency between components that operate within a system. If components are set up in a parallel system (see Parallel, Series, and Series–Parallel Systems) for example, the system survives as long as at least one component is operating. In a typical load-sharing system, once a component fails, the remaining components suffer an increase in failure rate due to the extra “load” they must encumber due to the failed component.

Length Bias In The Measurements Of Carbon Nanotubes, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

To measure carbon nanotube lengths, atomic force microscopy and special software are used to identify and measure nanotubes on a square grid. Current practice does not include nanotubes that cross the grid, and, as a result, the sample is length-biased. The selection bias model can be demonstrated through Buffon’s needle problem, extended to general curves that more realistically represent the shape of nanotubes observed on a grid. In this article, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator is constructed for the length distribution of the nanotubes, and the consequences of the length bias are examined. Probability plots reveal that the corrected length …

Degradation Models, Suk Joo Bae, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Reliability testing typically generates product lifetime data, but for some tests, covariate information about the wear and tear on the product during the life test can provide additional insight into the product’s lifetime distribution. This usage, or degradation, can be the physical parameters of the product (e.g., corrosion thickness on a metal plate) or merely indicated through product performance (e.g., the luminosity of a light emitting diode). The measurements made across the product’s lifetime are degradation data, and degradation analysis is the statistical tool for providing inference about the lifetime distribution from the degradation data.

Detection And Estimation Of A Mixture In Power Law Processes For A Repairable System, Ni Wang, Paul Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

The power law process has proved to be a useful tool in characterizing the failure process of repairable systems. This paper presents a procedure for detecting and estimating a mixture of reliable and unreliable (defective) systems. The test of a mixture, based on a simple likelihood ratio, is illustrated with truncated failure data for copy machines. Bootstrap methods are used to gauge the estimation uncertainty, and optimal decisions for system replacement are determined based on the observed likelihood.

Statistical Models For Hot Electron Degradation In Nano-Scaled Mosfet Devices, Suk Joo Bae, Seong-Joon Kim, Way Kuo, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In a MOS structure, the generation of hot carrier interface states is a critical feature of the item's reliability. On the nano-scale, there are problems with degradation in transconductance, shift in threshold voltage, and decrease in drain current capability. Quantum mechanics has been used to relate this decrease to degradation, and device failure. Although the lifetime, and degradation of a device are typically used to characterize its reliability, in this paper we model the distribution of hot-electron activation energies, which has appeal because it exhibits a two-point discrete mixture of logistic distributions. The logistic mixture presents computational problems that are …

Degradation Models And Implied Lifetime Distributions, Suk Joo Bae, Way Kuo, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

In experiments where failure times are sparse, degradation analysis is useful for the analysis of failure time distributions in reliability studies. This research investigates the link between a practitioner's selected degradation model and the resulting lifetime model. Simple additive and multiplicative models with single random effects are featured. Results show that seemingly innocuous assumptions of the degradation path create surprising restrictions on the lifetime distribution. These constraints are described in terms of failure rate and distribution classes.

A Conversation With Harry Martz, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Harry F. Martz was born June 16, 1942 and grew up in Cumberland, Maryland. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in mathematics (with a minor in physics) from Frostburg State University in 1964, and earned a Ph.D. in statistics at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University in 1968. He started his statistics career at Texas Tech University's Department of Industrial Engineering and Statistics right after graduation. In 1978, he joined the technical staff at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in Los Alamos, New Mexico after first working as Full Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Utah State …

Reliability Modeling In Spatially Distributed Logistics System, Ni Wang, Jye-Chyi Lu, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This article proposes methods for modeling service reliability in a supply chain. The logistics system in a supply chain typically consists of thousands of retail stores along with multiple distribution centers (DC). Products are transported between DC & stores through multiple routes. The service reliability depends on DC location layouts, distances from DC to stores, time requirements for product replenishing at stores, DC's capability for supporting store demands, and the connectivity of transportation routes. Contingent events such as labor disputes, bad weather, road conditions, traffic situations, and even terrorist threats can have great impacts on a system's reliability. Given the …

A Logistic Regression/Markov Chain Model For Ncaa Basketball, Paul H. Kvam, Joel Sokol

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and …

Statistical Reliability With Applications, Paul H. Kvam, Jye-Chyi Lu

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This chapter reviews fundamental ideas in reliability theory and inference. The first part of the chapter accounts for lifetime distributions that are used in engineering reliability analyis, including general properties of reliability distributions that pertain to lifetime for manufactured products. Certain distributions are formulated on the basis of simple physical properties, and other are more or less empirical. The first part of the chapter ends with a description of graphical and analytical methods to find appropriate lifetime distributions for a set of failure data.

The second part of the chapter describes statistical methods for analyzing reliability data, including maximum likelihood …

Estimating Load-Sharing Properties In A Dynamic Reliability System, Paul H. Kvam, Edsel A. Peña

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

An estimator for the load-share parameters in an equal load-share model is derived based on observing k-component parallel systems of identical components that have a continuous distribution function F (˙) and failure rate r (˙). In an equal load-share model, after the first of k components fails, failure rates for the remaining components change from r (t) to γ1r (t), then to γ2r (t) after the next failure, and so on. On the basis of observations on n independent and identical systems, a semiparametric estimator of the component baseline …

Teaching Statistics With Sports Examples, Paul Kvam, Joel Sokol

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

Class material for introductory and advanced statistics can be colorfully illustrated by using appropriate data and examples from sports. Specific methods, including statistical graphics (e.g., boxplots), ball-and-urn probabilities, and statistical regression are demonstrated. Examples are drawn from popular American sports such as baseball, basketball, soccer and American football. Classroom feedback indicates that most students enjoy sports examples as a way to learn abstract concepts using familiar, recreational settings.

A Nonlinear Random Coefficients Model For Degradation Testing, Suk Joo Bae, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

As an alternative to traditional life testing, degradation tests can be effective in assessing product reliability when measurements of degradation leading to failure can be observed. This article presents a degradation model for highly reliable light displays, such as plasma display panels and vacuum fluorescent displays (VFDs). Standard degradation models fail to capture the burn-in characteristics of VFDs, when emitted light actually increases up to a certain point in time before it decreases (or degrades) continuously. Random coefficients are used to model this phenomenon in a nonlinear way, which allows for a nonmonotonic degradation path. In many situations, the relative …

Reliability Estimation Based On System Data With An Unknown Load Share Rule, Hyoungtae Kim, Paul H. Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

We consider a multicomponent load-sharing system in which the failure rate of a given component depends on the set of working components at any given time. Such systems can arise in software reliability models and in multivariate failure-time models in biostatistics, for example. A load-share rule dictates how stress or load is redistributed to the surviving components after a component fails within the system. In this paper, we assume the load share rule is unknown and derive methods for statistical inference on load-share parameters based on maximum likelihood. Components with (individual) constant failure rates are observed in two environments: (1) …

Ranked Set Sampling Based On Binary Water Quality Data With Covariates, Paul Kvam

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

A ranked set sample (RSS) is composed of independent order statistics, formed by collecting and ordering independent subsamples, then measuring only one item from each subsample. If the cost of sampling is dominated by data measurement rather than collection or ranking, the RSS technique is known to be superior to ordinary sampling. Experiments based on binary data are not designed to exploit the advantages of ranked set sampling because categorical data typically are as easily measured as ranked, making RSS methods impractical. However, in some environmental and biological studies, the success probability of a bivariate outcome is related to one …

Discrete Predictive Analysis In Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Paul Kvam, J. Glenn Miller

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

This paper presents methods for predicting future numbers of component failures for probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). The research is motivated and illustrated by discrete failure data from the nuclear industry, including failure counts for emergency diesel generators, pumps, and motor operated valves. Failure counts are modeled with Poisson and binomial distributions. Multiple-failure environments create extra problems for predictive inference, and are a primary focus of this paper. Common cause failures (CCFs), in particular, refer to the simultaneous failure of system components due to an external event. CCF prediction is investigated, and approximate inference methods are derived for various CCF models.

Nonparametric Estimation Of A Distribution Subject To A Stochastic Precedence Constraint, Miguel A. Arcones, Paul H. Kvam, Francisco J. Samaniego

Department of Math & Statistics Faculty Publications

For any two random variables X and Y with distributions F and G defined on [0,∞), X is said to stochastically precede Y if P(X≤Y) ≥ 1/2. For independent X and Y, stochastic precedence (denoted by X≤_spY) is equivalent to E[G(X–)] ≤ 1/2. The applicability of stochastic precedence in various statistical contexts, including reliability modeling, tests for distributional equality versus various alternatives, and the relative performance of comparable tolerance bounds, is discussed. The problem of estimating the underlying distribution(s) of experimental data under the assumption that they obey a …