Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Using Methods From The Data-Mining And Machine-Learning Literature For Disease Classification And Prediction: A Case Study Examining Classification Of Heart Failure Subtypes, Peter C. Austin

Peter Austin

OBJECTIVE: Physicians classify patients into those with or without a specific disease. Furthermore, there is often interest in classifying patients according to disease etiology or subtype. Classification trees are frequently used to classify patients according to the presence or absence of a disease. However, classification trees can suffer from limited accuracy. In the data-mining and machine-learning literature, alternate classification schemes have been developed. These include bootstrap aggregation (bagging), boosting, random forests, and support vector machines.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We compared the performance of these classification methods with that of conventional classification trees to classify patients with heart failure (HF) …

Predictive Accuracy Of Risk Factors And Markers: A Simulation Study Of The Effect Of Novel Markers On Different Performance Measures For Logistic Regression Models, Peter C. Austin

Peter Austin

The change in c-statistic is frequently used to summarize the change in predictive accuracy when a novel risk factor is added to an existing logistic regression model. We explored the relationship between the absolute change in the c-statistic, Brier score, generalized R(2) , and the discrimination slope when a risk factor was added to an existing model in an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations. The increase in model accuracy due to the inclusion of a novel marker was proportional to both the prevalence of the marker and to the odds ratio relating the marker to the outcome but inversely …