Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Technical Note: Comparative Static Analysis Of Information Value In A Canonical Decision Problem, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

To gain insight into the behavior of the value of information, this paper identifies specific rules for a canonical decision problem: the two-act linear loss decision with normal prior probability distributions. Conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information increases when mean and standard deviation are both linear functions of an exogenous variable. A variety of richer decision problems can be adapted to the problem, so that the general results obtained here can be immediately applied to understand drivers of information value.

Drafting A Career In Sports: Determining Underclassmen College Players’ Stock In The Nba Draft, Byron J. Gajewski, Todd Bishop

Byron J Gajewski

No abstract provided.

Food Based Approaches For A Healthy Nutrition In Africa, Mamoudou Hama Dicko

Pr. Mamoudou H. DICKO, PhD

The latest estimates of the FAO demonstrate the problems of the fight against hunger. These problems are manifested by the ever-increasing number of chronically undernourished people worldwide. Their numbers during the 1999-2001 period were estimated at about 840 million of which 798 million live in developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa alone represented 198 million of those. In this part of Africa the prevalence of undernourishment ranges from 5-34%, causing growth retardation and insufficient weight gain among one third of the children under five years of age and resulting in a mortality of 5-15% among these children. Malnutrition resulting from undernourishment is …

Prediction Of Radiation Pneumonitis By Dose-Volume Histogram Parameters In Lung Cancer--A Systematic Review, George Rodrigues, Michael Lock, David D'Souza, Edward Yu, Jake Van Dyk

Edward Yu

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To perform a systematic review of the predictive ability of various dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters (V(dose), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)) in the incidence of radiation pneumonitis (RP) caused by external-beam radiation therapy. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Studies assessing the relationship between CT-based DVH reduction parameters and RP rate in radically treated lung cancer were eligible for the review. Synonyms for RP, lung cancer, DVH and its associated parameters (NTCP, V(20), V(30), MLD) were combined in a search strategy involving electronic databases, secondary reference searching, and consultation with experts. Individual or group data …

Model Development Techniques And Evaluation Methods For Prediction And Classification Of Consumer Risk In The Credit Industry, Jennifer Priestley, Satish Nargundkar

Jennifer L. Priestley

In this chapter, we examine and compare the most prevalent modeling techniques in the credit industry, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Analysis and the emerging technique of Neural Network modeling. K-S Tests and Classification Rates are typically used in the industry to measure the success in predictive classification. We examine those two methods and a third, ROC Curves, to determine if the method of evaluation has an influence on the perceived performance of the modeling technique. We found that each modeling technique has its own strengths, and a determination of the “best” depends upon the evaluation method utilized and the costs …

Consumption Function, Douglas G. Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

No abstract provided.

Analyzing Time-To-Event Data In A Clinical Trial When An Unknown Proportion Of Subjects Has Experienced The Event At Entry, Raji Balasubramanian, Stephen W. Lagakos

Raji Balasubramanian

Modelling Dynamic Conditional Correlations In Wti Oil Forward And Futures Returns, Alessandro Lanza, Matteo Manera, Micheal Mcaleer

Matteo Manera

This paper estimates the dynamic conditional correlations in the returns on WTI oil onemonth forward prices, and one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month futures prices, using recently developed multivariate conditional volatility models. The dynamic correlations enable a determination of whether the forward and various futures returns are substitutes or complements, which are crucial for deciding whether or not to hedge against unforeseen circumstances. The models are estimated using daily data on WTI oil forward and futures prices, and their associated returns, from 3 January 1985 to 16 January 2004. At the univariate level, the estimates are statistically significant, with the occasional …

Ensuring The Comparability Of Comparison Groups: Is Randomization Enough?, Vance Berger, Sherri Rose

Sherri Rose

It is widely believed that baseline imbalances in randomized trials must necessarily be random. In fact, there is a type of selection bias that can cause substantial, systematic and reproducible baseline imbalances of prognostic covariates even in properly randomized trials. It is possible, given complete data, to quantify both the susceptibility of a given trial to this type of selection bias and the extent to which selection bias appears to have caused either observable or unobservable baseline imbalances. Yet, in articles reporting on randomized trials, it is uncommon to find either these assessments or the information that would enable a …

Fall Prevention Programs For The Elderly: A Bayesian Secondary Meta-Analysis, Joseph F. Lucke

Joseph Lucke

A secondary meta-analysis of programs to reduce falls in the elderly is undertaken to demonstrate a Bayesian analysis. The Bayesian statistical tradition is carefully distinguished from the standard Neyman-Pearson-Wald (NPW) statistical tradition. In the 12 studies, the logit effect size is used to compare treatment groups using a prevention program to control groups without a program. To contrast the Bayesian analysis, independent-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses are first conducted in the NPW tradition. This is followed by Bayesian independent-effects and fixed-effect meta-analyses that numerically replicate the NPW results but have conceptually different interpretations. The final analyses comprise Bayesian random-effects and predictive …