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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
A Statistical Approach To Characterize And Detect Degradation Within The Barabasi-Albert Network, Mohd-Fairul Mohd-Zaid
A Statistical Approach To Characterize And Detect Degradation Within The Barabasi-Albert Network, Mohd-Fairul Mohd-Zaid
Theses and Dissertations
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is widely used by the intelligence community when analyzing the relationships between individuals within groups of interest. Hence, any tools that can be quantitatively shown to help improve the analyses are advantageous for the intelligence community. To date, there have been no methods developed to characterize a real world network as a Barabasi-Albert network which is a type of network with properties contained in many real-world networks. In this research, two newly developed statistical tests using the degree distribution and the L-moments of the degree distribution are proposed with application to classifying networks and detecting degradation …
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
A Logistic Regression And Markov Chain Model For The Prediction Of Nation-State Violent Conflicts And Transitions, Nicholas Shallcross
Theses and Dissertations
Using open source data, this research formulates and constructs a suite of statistical models that predict future transitions into and out of violent conflict and forecasts the regional and global incidences of violent conflict over a ten-year time horizon. A total of thirty predictor variables are tested and evaluated for inclusion in twelve conditional logistic regression models, which calculate the probability that a nation will transition from its current conflict state, either In Conflict or Not in Conflict, to a new state in the following year. These probabilities are then used to construct a series of nation-specific Markov chain models …