Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Modeling The Effect Of Observational Social Learning On Parental Decision-Making For Childhood Vaccination And Diseases Spread Over Household Networks, Tamer Oraby, Andras Balogh

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

In this paper, we introduce a novel model for parental decision-making about vaccinations against a childhood disease that spreads through a contact network. This model considers a bilayer network comprising two overlapping networks, which are either Erdős–Rényi (random) networks or Barabási–Albert networks. The model also employs a Bayesian aggregation rule for observational social learning on a social network. This new model encompasses other decision models, such as voting and DeGroot models, as special cases. Using our model, we demonstrate how certain levels of social learning about vaccination preferences can converge opinions, influencing vaccine uptake and ultimately disease spread. In addition, …

Stability Analyses On The Effect Of Vaccination And Contact Tracing In Monkeypox Virus Transmission, Solomon Eshun, Richmond Essieku, James Ladzekpo

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Monkeypox is a significant health concern due to its potential for morbidity and occasional mortality. Vaccination and effective contact tracing play pivotal roles in controlling infectious diseases, including monkeypox. This study aims to contribute to our understanding of monkeypox dynamics by developing a comprehensive mathematical model that incorporates key factors such as vaccination, quarantining, and contact tracing. Through rigorous sensitivity analysis, we explore the impact of varying vaccination coverage and contact tracing on the disease’s dynamics. In particular, we investigate the dynamics of the disease in relation to variable vaccination coverage and contact tracing. Our findings highlight the critical role …

Effect Of Total Population, Population Density And Weighted Population Density On The Spread Of Covid-19 In Malaysia, Hui Shan Wong, Md Zobaer Hasan, Omar Sharif, Azizur Rahman

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since November 2019, most countries across the globe have suffered from the disastrous consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic which redefined every aspect of human life. Given the inevitable spread and transmission of the virus, it is critical to acknowledge the factors that catalyse transmission of the disease. This research investigates the relation of the external demographic parameters such as total population, population density and weighted population density on the spread of Covid-19 in Malaysia. Pearson correlation and simple linear regression were utilized to identify the relation between the population-related variables and the spread of Covid-19 in Malaysia using data from …

Comparative Analysis Of All-Terrain Vehicles, Motorcycle And Automobile-Related Trauma In A Rural Border Community Of The Usa, Haissam S. Elzaim, Kristina Vatcheva, Annelyn Torres-Reveron, Gregery Pequeno, Monica Michelle Betancourt-Garcia

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction: There is widespread use of all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) in the USA for both work-related and recreational activities. In this study, we aimed to determine the difference in injury severity, Glasgow Coma scales and length of stay between ATV-related injuries and injuries sustained from motorcycles (MOTOs) and automobiles (AUTOs).

Methods: We retrospectively analysed ATV, MOTO and AUTO injuries from a Level 2 Trauma Center between 01 January 2015 and 31 August 2020. Proportional odds regression analyses, as well as multivariable regression models, were used to analyse the data.

Results: There were significantly more male and paediatric patients that suffered ATV-related …

Statistical Analysis Methods Applied To Early Outpatient Covid-19 Treatment Case Series Data, Eleftherios Gkioulekas, Peter A. Mccullough, Vladimir Zelenko

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

When confronted with a public health emergency, significant innovative treatment protocols can sometimes be discovered by medical doctors at the front lines based on repurposed medications. We propose a statistical framework for analyzing the case series of patients treated with such new protocols, that enables a comparison with our prior knowledge of expected outcomes, in the absence of treatment. The goal of the proposed methodology is not to provide a precise measurement of treatment efficacy, but to establish the existence of treatment efficacy, in order to facilitate the binary decision of whether the treatment protocol should be adopted on an …

Networks Of Necessity: Simulating Covid-19 Mitigation Strategies For Disabled People And Their Caregivers, Thomas E. Valles, Hannah Shoenhard, Joseph Zinski, Sarah Trick, Mason A. Porter, Michael R. Lindstrom

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Abstract

A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is the limiting of in-person contacts. However, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible for the many disabled people who do not live in care facilities but still require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living. We seek to determine which interventions can best prevent infections of disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model that includes susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatically ill, hospitalized, and removed/recovered individuals. The networks on which we simulate disease spread incorporate heterogeneity in the risk levels of …

Using A Stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain Model To Examine Alternative Timing And Duration Of The Covid-19 Lockdown In Kuwait: What Can Be Done Now?, Mustafa Al-Zoughool, Tamer Oraby, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Joseph C. Longenecker, Walid Al Ali, Mohammad Alseaidan, Susie Elsaadany, Michael G. Tyshenko

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background

Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.

Methods

The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and …

A Multilayer Network Model Of The Coevolution Of The Spread Of A Disease And Competing Opinions, Kaiyan Peng, Zheng Lu, Vanessa Lin, Michael R. Lindstrom, Christian Parkinson, Chuntian Wang, Andrea L. Bertozzi, Mason A. Porter

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

During the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicting opinions on physical distancing swept across social media, affecting both human behavior and the spread of COVID-19. Inspired by such phenomena, we construct a two-layer multiplex network for the coupled spread of a disease and conflicting opinions. We model each process as a contagion. On one layer, we consider the concurrent evolution of two opinions — pro-physical-distancing and anti-physical-distancing — that compete with each other and have mutual immunity to each other. The disease evolves on the other layer, and individuals are less likely (respectively, more likely) to become infected when they adopt the pro-physical-distancing …

Evaluation Of The United States Covid-19 Vaccine Allocation Strategy, Md Rafiul Islam, Tamer Oraby, Audrey Mccombs, Mohammad Mihrab Chowdhury, Mohammad Al-Mamun, Michael G. Tyshenko, Claus Kadelkai

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Anticipating an initial shortage of vaccines for COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States developed priority vaccine allocations for specific demographic groups in the population. This study evaluates the performance of the CDC vaccine allocation strategy with respect to multiple potentially competing vaccination goals (minimizing mortality, cases, infections, and years of life lost (YLL)), under the same framework as the CDC allocation: four priority vaccination groups and population demographics stratified by age, comorbidities, occupation and living condition (congested or non-congested).

Methods and findings: We developed a compartmental disease model that incorporates key elements of the …

Mitigating The Externality Of Diseases Of Poverty Through Health Aid, Kamal Jnawali, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Externality exists in healthcare when an individual benefits from others being healthy as it reduces the probability of getting sick from illness. Healthy workers are considered to be the more productive labourers leading to a country’s positive economic growth over time. Several research studies have modelled disease transmission and its economic impact on a single country in isolation. We developed a two-country diseaseeconomy model that explores disease transmission and crossborder infection of disease for its impacts. The model includes aspects of a worsening and rapid transmission of disease juxtaposed by positive impacts to the economy from tourism. We found that …

Modeling The Effect Of Lockdown Timing As A Covid‑19 Control Measure In Countries With Differing Social Contacts, Tamer Oraby, Michael G. Tyshenko, Jose Campo Maldonado, Kristina Vatcheva, Susie Elsaadany, Walid Q. Alali, Joseph C. Longenecker, Mustafa Al‑Zoughool

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The application, timing, and duration of lockdown strategies during a pandemic remain poorly quantified with regards to expected public health outcomes. Previous projection models have reached conflicting conclusions about the effect of complete lockdowns on COVID-19 outcomes. We developed a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model with eight states including the environment (SEAMHQRD-V), and derived a formula for the basic reproduction number, R0, for that model. Applying the R 0 formula as a function in previously-published social contact matrices from 152 countries, we produced the distribution and four categories of possible R 0 for the 152 countries and chose one …

Estimation Of The Healthcare Waste Generation During Covid-19 Pandemic In Bangladesh, Tamal Chowdhury, Hemal Chowdhury, Md Salman Rahman, Nazia Hossain, Ashfaq Ahmed, Sadiq M. Sait

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

COVID-19 pandemic-borne wastes imposed a severe threat to human lives as well as the total environment. Improper handling of these wastes increases the possibility of future transmission. Therefore, immediate actions are required from both local and international authorities to mitigate the amount of waste generation and ensure proper disposal of these wastes, especially for low-income and developing countries where solid waste management is challenging. In this study, an attempt is made to estimate healthcare waste generated during the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh. This study includes infected, ICU, deceased, isolated and quarantined patients as the primary sources of medical waste. Results …

Analysis Of Intervention Effectiveness Using Early Outbreak Transmission Dynamics To Guide Future Pandemic Management And Decision-Making In Kuwait, Michael G. Tyshenko, Tamer Oraby, Joseph C. Longenecker, Harri Vainio, Janvier Gasana, Walid Q. Alali, Mohammad Alseaidan, Susie Elsaadany, Mustafa Al-Zoughool

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a World Health Organization designated pandemic that can result in severe symptoms and death that disproportionately affects older patients or those with comorbidities. Kuwait reported its first imported cases of COVID-19 on February 24, 2020. Analysis of data from the first three months of community transmission of the COVID-19 outbreak in Kuwait can provide important guidance for decision-making when dealing with future SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave management. The analysis of intervention scenarios can help to evaluate the possible impacts of various outbreak control measures going forward which aim to reduce the effective reproduction …

Sex And Age Differences In Prevalence And Risk Factors For Prediabetes In Mexican-Americans, Kristina Vatcheva, Belinda M. Reininger, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

AIMS:

Over 1/3 of Americans have prediabetes, while 9.4% have type 2 diabetes. The aim of our study was to estimate the prevalence of prediabetes in Mexican Americans, with known 28.2% prevalence of type 2 diabetes, by age and sex and to identify critical socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with prediabetes.

METHODS:

Data were collected between 2004 and 2017 from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort in Texas. Weighted crude and sex- and age- stratified prevalences were calculated. Survey weighted logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for prediabetes.

RESULTS:

The prevalence of prediabetes (32%) was slightly higher than …

The Precarious Health Of Young Mexican American Men In South Texas, Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, 2004–2015, Gordon P. Watt, Kristina Vatcheva, Derek M. Griffith, Belinda M. Reininger, Laura Beretta, Michael Fallon, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction

Hispanic men have higher rates of illness and death from various chronic conditions than do non-Hispanic men. We aimed to characterize the health of Mexican American men living on the US–Mexico border in South Texas and elucidate indications of chronic disease in young men.

Methods

We sampled all male participants from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, an ongoing population-based cohort of Mexican Americans in Brownsville, Texas. We calculated descriptive statistics and stratified the sample into 3 age groups to estimate the prevalence of sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical factors by age group and evaluated differences between age groups.

Results

Obesity …

Cirrhosis And Advanced Fibrosis In Hispanics In Texas: The Dominant Contribution Of Central Obesity, Jingjing Jiao, Gordon P. Watt, Minjae Lee, Mohammad H. Rahbar, Kristina Vatcheva, Jen-Jung Pan, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Michael Fallon, Laura Beretta

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Liver cirrhosis is a leading cause of death in Hispanics and Hispanics who live in South Texas have the highest incidence of liver cancer in the United States. We aimed at determining the prevalence and associated risk factors of cirrhosis in this population. Clinical and demographic variables were extracted for 2466 participants in the community-based Cameron County Hispanic Cohort in South Texas. Aspartate transaminase to Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) was used to predict cirrhosis in Cameron County Hispanic Cohort. The prevalence of cirrhosis using APRI≥2 was 0.94%, which is nearly 4-fold higher than the national prevalence. Using APRI≥1, the overall …

Liver And Other Gastrointestinal Cancers Are Frequent In Mexican Americans, Ariana L. Garza, Kristina Vatcheva, Jen-Jung Pan, Mohammad H. Rahbar, Michael Fallon, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background

Disease patterns in Mexican-American health-disparity populations differ from larger United States populations.

Aims

Determine frequency of gastrointestinal cancers in Mexican Americans.

Methods

We analyzed self-reported data from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort where we find high rates of risk factors for cancer: obesity (48.5%), diabetes (30.7%). Participants provided cancer histories about themselves and first and second degree relatives. Logistic regression models assessed risk factors. Frequencies of cancer sites were ranked and validated using concurrent age local cancer registry data.

Results

Among 9,249 individuals (participants and their relatives) there were 1,184 individuals with reports of cancer. Among cohort participants under …

Depression In Mexican Americans With Diagnosed And Undiagnosed Diabetes, Rene L. Olvera, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Douglas E. Williamson, Kristina Vatcheva, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Depression and diabetes commonly co-occur; however, the strength of the physiological effects of diabetes as mediating factors towards depression is uncertain.

Method: We analyzed extensive clinical, epidemiological and laboratory data from n = 2081 Mexican Americans aged 35-64 years, recruited from the community as part of the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) divided into three groups: Diagnosed (self-reported) diabetes (DD, n = 335), Undiagnosed diabetes (UD, n = 227) and No diabetes (ND, n = 1519). UD participants denied being diagnosed with diabetes, but on testing met the 2010 American Diabetes Association and World Health Organization definitions of diabetes. …

Metabolic Health Has Greater Impact On Diabetes Than Simple Overweight/Obesity In Mexican Americans, Shenghui Wu, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Belinda M. Reininger, Kristina Vatcheva, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

To compare the risk for diabetes in each of 4 categories of metabolic health and BMI. Methods. Participants were drawn from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, a randomly selected Mexican American cohort in Texas on the US-Mexico border. Subjects were divided into 4 phenotypes according to metabolic health and BMI: metabolically healthy normal weight, metabolically healthy overweight/obese, metabolically unhealthy normal weight, and metabolically unhealthy overweight/obese. Metabolic health was defined as having less than 2 metabolic abnormalities. Overweight/obese status was assessed by BMI higher than 25 kg/m2. Diabetes was defined by the 2010 ADA definition or by being on a diabetic …

Hepatitis C Virus In Mexican Americans: A Population-Based Study Reveals Relatively High Prevalence And Negative Association With Diabetes, Gordon P. Watt, Kristina Vatcheva, Laura Beretta, Jen-Jung Pan, Michael Fallon, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and risk factors for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Mexican Americans living in South Texas. We tested plasma for the presence of HCV antibody from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC), a randomized, population-based cohort in an economically disadvantaged Mexican American community on the United States/Mexico border with high rates of chronic disease. A weighted prevalence of HCV antibody of 2·3% [n = 1131, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·2-3·4] was found. Participants with diabetes had low rates of HCV antibody (0·4%, 95% CI 0·0-0·9) and logistic regression revealed a statistically significant negative …

Depression, Obesity, And Metabolic Syndrome: Prevalence And Risks Of Comorbidity In A Population-Based Study Of Mexican Americans, Rene L. Olvera, Douglas E. Williamson, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Kristina Vatcheva, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction: We examined the prevalence of depression, obesity, and metabolic syndrome and associations between them in a population-based representative cohort of Mexican Americans living on the United States-Mexico border.

Method: The sample in this cross-sectional analysis consisted of 1,768 Mexican American adults (≥ 18 years of age) assessed between the years 2004 and 2010, with whom we tested our central hypothesis of a significant relationship between obesity and depression. Depression was measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D) with a cutoff score of ≥ 16 for depression and a cutoff score of ≥ 27 for severe depression. We …

Anxiety, Depression And Smoking Status Among Adults Of Mexican Heritage On The Texas-Mexico Border, Anna V. Wilkinson, Kristina Vatcheva, Adriana Pérez, Belinda M. Reininger, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

The goal of the current analysis is to examine relationships between smoking status and anxiety and depression among adults of Mexican heritage to inform the development of culturally relevant smoking cessations efforts. Mexican heritage residents (N=1,791) of the city of Brownsville, TX, aged 18 years or older, enrolled in the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, were selected through two stage cluster sampling of randomly selected census tracts from the first and third quartile of SES using Census 2000. Among current smokers, anxiety and depression scores were highest among women who had not completed high school (p<0.05). Former smoking women, but not men, with at least a high school education and former smoking women born in the United States reported higher levels of anxiety and depression than never smoking women. Negative affective states may represent a greater barrier to smoking cessation among women than men.

Assessing The Optimal Virulence Of Malaria‐Targeting Mosquito Pathogens: A Mathematical Study Of Engineered Metarhizium Anisopliae, Bernhard Konrad, Michael R. Lindstrom, Anja Gumpinger, Jielin Zhu, Daniel Coombs

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background

Metarhizium anisopliae is a naturally occurring fungal pathogen of mosquitoes. Recently, Metarhizium has been engineered to act against malaria by directly killing the disease agent within mosquito vectors and also effectively blocking onward transmission. It has been proposed that efforts should be made to minimize the virulence of the fungal pathogen, in order to slow the development of resistant mosquitoes following an actual deployment.

Results

Two mathematical models were developed and analysed to examine the efficacy of the fungal pathogen. It was found that, in many plausible scenarios, the best effects are achieved with a reduced or minimal pathogen …

High Prevalence Of Subclinical Atherosclerosis By Carotid Ultrasound Among Mexican Americans: Discordance With 10-Year Risk Assessment Using The Framingham Risk Score, Susan T. Laing, Beverly Smulevitz, Kristina Vatcheva, Anne R. Rentfro, David D. Mcpherson, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Framingham risk scores (FRS) were validated in a mostly Caucasian population. Evaluation of subclinical atherosclerosis by carotid ultrasound may improve ascertainment of risk in nonwhite populations. This study aimed to evaluate carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaquing among Mexican Americans, and to correlate these markers with coronary risk factors and the FRS.

Methods/results: Participants (n = 141) were drawn from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort. Carotid artery ultrasound was performed and cIMT measured. Carotid plaque was defined as areas of thickening >50% of the thickness of the surrounding walls. Mean age was 53.1 ± 11.7 years (73.8% female). …

Missed Opportunities For Diagnosis And Treatment Of Diabetes, Hypertension, And Hypercholesterolemia In A Mexican American Population, Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, 2003-2008, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Kristina Vatcheva, Susan T. Laing, Monir Hossain, M Hossein Rahbar, Craig Hanis, H Shelton Brown, Anne R. Rentfro, Belinda M. Reininger, Joseph B. Mccormick

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Introduction

Diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia are common chronic diseases among Hispanics, a group projected to comprise 30% of the US population by 2050. Mexican Americans are the largest ethnically distinct subgroup among Hispanics. We assessed the prevalence of and risk factors for undiagnosed and untreated diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia among Mexican Americans in Cameron County, Texas.

Methods

We analyzed cross-sectional baseline data collected from 2003 to 2008 in the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort, a randomly selected, community-recruited cohort of 2,000 Mexican American adults aged 18 or older, to assess prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia; to assess the extent to …

Electrocardiographic Abnormalities Among Mexican Americans: Correlations With Diabetes, Obesity, And The Metabolic Syndrome, Saulette R. Queen, Beverly Smulevitz, Anne R. Rentfro, Kristina Vatcheva, David D. Mcpherson, Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, Joseph B. Mccormick, Susan T. Laing

School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Resting ischemic electrocardiographic abnormalities have been associated with cardiovascular mortality. Simple markers of abnormal autonomic tone have also been associated with diabetes, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome in some populations. Data on these electrocardiographic abnormalities and correlations with coronary risk factors are lacking among Mexican Americans wherein these conditions are prevalent.

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the prevalent resting electrocardiographic abnormalities among community-dwelling Mexican Americans, and correlate these findings with coronary risk factors, particularly diabetes, obesity, and the metabolic syndrome.

Methods: Study subjects (n=1280) were drawn from the Cameron County Hispanic Cohort comprised of community-dwelling Mexican Americans living …