Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Grappling With Covid-19 By Imposing And Lifting Nonpharmaceutical Interventions In Sri Lanka: A Modeling Perspective, Mahesh Jayaweera, Chamath Dannongoda, Dilum Dilshan, Janith Dissanayake, Hasini Perera, Jagath Manatunge, Buddhika Gunawardana

Physics and Astronomy Faculty Publications and Presentations

The imposition and lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to avert the COVID19 pandemic have gained popularity worldwide and will continue to be enforced until herd immunity is achieved. We developed a linear regression model to ascertain the nexus between the time-varying reproduction number averaged over a time window of six days (Rts) and seven NPIs: contact tracing, quarantine efforts, social distancing and health checks, hand hygiene, wearing of facemasks, lockdown and isolation, and health-related supports. Our analysis suggests that the second wave that emerged in Sri Lanka in early October 2020 continued despite numerous NPIs. The model indicates that the …