Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Bayesian Model Comparisons In Planetary Science, John Henry Boisvert

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Model comparison in the modern era allows us to use statistical methods that were previously difficult with older machines. I present a state-of-the-art model comparison code that uses modern Bayesian statistics to measure the Bayes factor between two competing models. The Bayes factor is the ratio of the probability of the data given one model to the probability of the data given another model. My code was used to compare models in five problems in planetary science. The first three pertain to radial velocity exoplanet data. There is a degeneracy in the radial velocity exoplanet signal between a single planet …