Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Development And Evaluation Of Seasonal, Continental-Scale Streamflow Forecasts, Elissa Marie Yeates

Theses and Dissertations

Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.

The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the …

Increased Drought Severity Tracks Warming In The United States’ Largest River Basin, Justin T. Martin, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Edward R. Cook, Gregory J. Mccabe, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Erika K. Wise, Patrick J. Erger, Larry Dolan, Marketa Mcguire, Subhrendu Gangopadhyay, Katherine J. Chase, Jeremy S. Litell, Stephen T. Gray, Scott St. George, Jonathan M. Friedman, David J. Sauchyn, Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques, John King

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of streamflow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has …

Observed Changes In Climate And Streamflow In The Upper Rio Grande Basin, Shaleene Chavarria

Earth and Planetary Sciences ETDs

Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting the streamflow volume derived from snow accumulation in ways consistent with climate model-based projections of 21st century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the upper Rio Grande (URG) near its headwaters in southern Colorado are assessed for water years 1958-2015. Trends in discharge are examined together with variations in snow water equivalent and surface climate variables. Results indicate that temperatures in the basin have increased significantly primarily in the winter and spring seasons, April 1 snow …