Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Impacts Of Hurricane Idalia’S Surge On Coastal Sand Biogeochemistry, Wendy "Cor" Mchone

Honors Theses

Beaches are heavily influenced by extreme events, such as hurricanes. Biological and chemical processes, such as primary production and diagenesis are often interrupted by these events. To examine the effects of hurricanes on coastal biogeochemistry, this study used sand and porewater samples from Waties Island, SC, which were collected before and after Hurricane Idalia. The samples were analyzed for macronutrient concentrations, organic content, and chlorophyll concentrations. Macronutrient pore water concentration changes were not uniform. The inventory of nitrite decreased significantly after the storm, which was reflected in slight increases in the inventories of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of nitrate, which …

Microscale To Mesoscale Modeling Of The Ocean Under Tropical Cyclones: Effects Of Sea Spray And Surfactants On Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Air-Sea Gas Exchange, Breanna Lynn Cain Vanderplow

All HCAS Student Capstones, Theses, and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction remains a challenge despite computational and observational developments because successful intensity forecasting requires implementing a multitude of atmospheric and oceanic processes. Hurricane Maria 2017 and Hurricane Dorian 2019 serve as prime examples of rapidly intensifying storms that devastated communities in the Caribbean. A lack of understanding and parameterization of crucial physics involved in tropical cyclone intensity in existing forecast models may have led to these and other forecasting errors.

Microscale physical processes at the air-sea interface are a major factor in intensification of tropical cyclones that are often unaccounted for in forecasting models since they are …

Understanding Comprehensive Flood Risk With Noaa Data, Kate Quigley

Benefits of Ocean Observing Catalog (BOOC)

Timestamp: 44806.3799229514 Email Address: kate.quigley@noaa.gov Name: Kate Quigley Affiliation: NOAA Program Office/Division: NOS OCM Position Title: Economist Title of use case: Understanding Comprehensive Flood Risk with NOAA Data Authors or Creators: NOAA OCM Digital Coast website Affiliations of Authors or Creators: NOAA OCM Contributors: Doug Marcy Affiliation of Contributors: NOAA OCM Description: The Beyond Floods app features a flood outlook score and detailed reports for each individual property. This score is an abstraction of more than 25 factors related to real estate, social perception, flood insurance, flood mitigation and losses, infrastructure, and geomorphology. Syndeste used data from NOAA’s digital elevation …

Modeling The Impacts Of Sea Level Rise In Coastal Virginia At Multiple Scales, George Murray Mcleod Iv

OES Theses and Dissertations

Relative sea level is increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States and the rate of relative sea level rise (ΔRSL) for Coastal Virginia is approximately double the rate of global sea level rise (ΔSLRG)(1). The potential impacts posed to communities by ΔRSL are best understood by examining the spatial relationship between the upper limits of ocean-connected waters and the geographic positioning of critical natural and societal assets. This research examines this problem at three spatial scales to quantify the impacts of ΔRSL and storm flooding events on (i) structural and transportation infrastructure for the tide-influenced coastal zone of …

An Analysis Of Hurricane Laura's Storm Surge In Cameron Parish Using Synthetic Storm Tracks, Climatology, And Statistics, Cameron Goff

LSU Master's Theses

Cameron Parish is a large coastal parish in southwest Louisiana that has been impacted by several powerful tropical cyclones. In 2020, the strongest hurricane in recorded history to ever hit this region, Hurricane Laura, set a state record for the highest storm surge measurement at 6.34 meters. I examine the climatology of tropical cyclone landfalls in this parish, looking for trends in intensity and frequency with time. I then compare the extreme surge of Hurricane Laura with a dataset of 645 synthetic tropical cyclones generated and used by the Coastal Hazards System for Louisiana. Plots comparing various meteorological statistics to …

Geomorphology Of Tidal Wetlands: Impacts Of Extreme And Annual Flood Events To Salt Marsh And Mangrove Systems, Frances R. Griswold

Doctoral Dissertations

Tidal wetlands are vital for buffering coastal settings from the threats of accelerated sea level rise and storms. Understanding the factors that are most influential for the maintenance and recovery of tidal wetlands after extreme events compounded by future accelerated sea level rise is of the utmost importance, yet this knowledge is not well established. Two tidal wetland schemas investigated in this dissertation are mangrove systems in Vieques, Puerto Rico (including robust lagoonal-mangrove forest systems and fringing mangrove forests), and salt marshes in New England. While the climatic forcings, vegetation type, and locations are vastly different for these two tidal …

Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades …

Tropical Cyclone And Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions In The Gulf Of Mexico, Emily Nichole Eley

Theses and Dissertations

The Gulf of Mexico (GoM) is historically a favorable region for the formation, maintenance and intensification of tropical cyclones that frequently evolve into powerful hurricanes. These natural disasters threaten the basin’s innate habitat and wildlife diversity, and the expansive coastal economies and communities. The dominant ocean circulation feature in the GoM is the Loop Current System (LCS) which includes the Loop Current (LC) and its associated mesoscale eddy field. The LC originates at the Yucatán Channel, loops anticyclonically into the basin, and ends at the Florida Straits; further it produces both anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies. The existence of the LCS …

Inland Tropical Cyclone Intensity Decay In The Continental United States, Yijie Zhu

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone (TC) hazard preparation is mostly focused on coastal cities with less attention typically paid to inland regions. The impact of TCs that propagate far inland is often underestimated and can cause unexpected loss of life and economic loss. This dissertation aims to understand the decay process of TCs during the post-landfall stage by answering three main research questions: (1) What are the general patterns of inland tropical cyclones, including spatial variations, decay rates, and translation speeds? (2) Are there temporal changes in the intensity decay from inland moving hurricanes? (3) How is the hurricane post-landfall dissipation related to …

A Numerical Investigation Of Tornado Production And Intensification In Tropical Cyclones, Marco Paredes

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The environmental conditions required for tornado formation and development in tropical cyclones (TCs) and the mechanisms underlying the intensification of TC tornadoes remain poorly understood. Previous research has suggested that low and mid-level dry air intrusion in TCs may enhance convective instability and influence the production of tornadoes. However, observations have their limitations in answering some of the key questions regarding the relationship among thermodynamic instability, dry air, and TC tornado genesis, development, and dissipation. In this study, a multiple nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in a hindcasting mode is used to simulate Hurricane Ivan (2004) by resolving …

An Agent-Based Exploration Of The Hurricane Forecast-Evacuation System Dynamics, Austin Reed Harris

Theses and Dissertations

In the mainland US, the hurricane-forecast-evacuation system is uncertain, dynamic, and complex. As a result, it is difficult to know whether to issue warnings, implement evacuation management strategies, or how to make forecasts more useful for evacuations. This dissertation helps address these needs, by holistically exploring the system’s complex dynamics from a new perspective. Specifically, by developing – and using – an empirically informed, agent-based modeling framework called FLEE (Forecasting Laboratory for Exploring the Evacuation-system). The framework represents the key, interwoven elements to hurricane evacuations: the natural hazard (hurricane), the human system (information flow, evacuation decisions), the built environment (road …

Storm Surge Simulation From Hurricane Isabel (2003) On The Virginia Shoreline, Karinna Nunez, Yinglong J. Zhang, Evan Hill, Catherine Riscassi Duning

Data

Hurricane Isabel made landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina on September 16, 2003 as a category 2 hurricane. The storm continued northwest after making landfall and significantly impacted Virginia with strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. The height of the storm surge generated by Hurricane Isabel was modelled throughout Virginia using SCHISM (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model). SCHISM outputs were translated to GIS and processed to be overlaid upon the LUBC (land use and bank cover) shoreline of coastal Virginia.

Sea Surface Temperatures And Vertical Wind Shear As Precursors To Tropical Cyclone Activity In The Caribbean And An Expanding Main Developing Region, Keneshia Hibbert

Dissertations and Theses

Sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear are essential to tropical cyclone formation. TCs need warm SSTs and low shear for genesis. Increasing SSTs and VWS changes influence storm development. This work analyzes SST and VWS trends for the Caribbean, surrounding region, and the Atlantic hurricane main developing region from 1982 to 2020. Storm intensity increases significantly during this period. Annual and seasonal trends show regional SSTs in the MDR are warming annually (0.0219°C yr^-1) and per season (0.0280°C yr^-1). Simultaneously, VWS decreases during the late rainfall season at 0.0556m/s yr^-1 in the MDR and …

Effects Of Surfactants On The Generation Of Sea Spray During Tropical Cyclones, Breanna L. Vanderplow

All HCAS Student Capstones, Theses, and Dissertations

Despite significant improvement in computational and observational capabilities, predicting intensity and intensification of major tropical cyclones remains a challenge. In 2017 Hurricane Maria intensified to a Category 5 storm within 24 hours, devastating Puerto Rico. In 2019 Hurricane Dorian, predicted to remain tropical storm, unexpectedly intensified into a Category 5 storm and destroyed the Bahamas. The official forecast and computer models were unable to predict rapid intensification of these storms. One possible reason for this is that key physics, including microscale processes at the air-sea interface, are poorly understood and parameterized in existing forecast models.

Under tropical cyclones, the air-sea …

The Rapid Weakening Of Hurricane Fred (2009), Christina Talamo

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

This research project discusses the rapid weakening of Hurricane Fred, a major Category 3 hurricane that occurred in the Atlantic basin during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Between the days of 9 September and 13 September, Fred remained stationary off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean and never made landfall, all the while consistently weakening over open ocean from a major Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm. In the Atlantic basin, I will define the rapid weakening, or RW, of a tropical cyclone as a decrease in the storm’s maximum sustained winds by 10.3 m s⁻¹ in …

Barrier Layer Impact On Rapid Intensification Of Hurricanes (2000-2018) In The Atlantic Ocean, J. Gaston Hayworth

HCNSO Student Capstones

Hurricane prediction is an evolving challenge that has seen much improvement over the years. While hurricane models have improved in predicting the path of storms, forecasts of hurricane intensity are unreliable due to the complexity of environmental data, lack of understanding of how relative humidity, vertical wind shear, hurricane structure and other possible factors affect intensity. Rapid Intensification (RI), which is a wind speed increase of +30 kts over a 24-hr period, can contribute to major destruction and loss of life to coastal communities affected by hurricanes, and is especially difficult to predict. Given the continued development of coastal regions …

A Numerical Investigation Of Sediment Dynamics In The Northern Gulf Of Mexico In Connection With Hurricanes, Fluid Mud, Climate Change, And Biogeochemical Cycling, Zhengchen Zang

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Sediment transport and deposition in marginal seas is jointly controlled by many factors including hydrodynamics, fluvial inputs, and the characteristics of sediment particles. This dissertation study employs the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-and-sediment transport modeling system (COAWST) to investigate the mechanism of sediment transport in the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGoM) on different temporal scales, as well as its interaction with biogeochemical processes.

First of all, a three-way coupled (atmosphere-wave-ocean) hurricane model reproduced the hydro- and sediment dynamics during hurricane Gustav (2008). Intensive alongshore and offshore currents were simulated on the eastern/western sectors of hurricane track, respectively. High suspended sediment concentration (SSC) was …

Analysis Of Hurricane Track Forecast Accuracy During The 2018 Season, Jonathan D. Unger

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

Hurricane track forecasting has become more accurate in recent years due to technological advances in modeling methods. However, due to the complex nature of the relationship between oceanic and atmospheric variables and hurricane tracks, noteworthy errors in track prediction, especially for predictions several days into the future, still remain. In this study, two different methods of forecasting hurricane tracks are compared. Using the four United States landfalling hurricanes of the 2018 season as a sample, the official forecast tracks published by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and hypothetical tracks based purely on climatology were mapped simultaneously with the preliminary best …

Spatial And Temporal Trends In The Xestospongia Muta (Giant Barrel Sponge) Population On The Southeast Florida Reef Tract, Alanna D. Waldman

HCNSO Student Theses and Dissertations

Xestospongia muta, the giant barrel sponge, is a key component of coral reef benthic communities in Southeast Florida and the Caribbean. Xestospongia muta increases habitat complexity and stability, and filters large volumes of water, enhancing water quality and facilitating nutrient cycling. Therefore, it is important to investigate trends in the X. muta population on Southeast Florida reefs in response to anthropogenic stressors, changing environmental conditions and acute disturbances and how these events affect its ecological role in the benthic community. This study identified trends in X. muta population density, volume, and size class distribution over time and across reef …

Analysis Of Hurricane Track Forecast Accuracy During The 2018 Season, Jonathan Unger

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Synergistic Effects Of Midlevel Dry Air And Vertical Wind Shear On Tropical Cyclone Development, Joshua James Alland

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This dissertation seeks to better understand how midlevel moisture and vertical wind shear (VWS) modulate tropical cyclone (TC) development. The first component of this dissertation simplifies the objective by focusing solely on how midlevel moisture modulates TC development, utilizing an axisymmetric modeling framework. Results show that low-entropy midlevel air affects the upward vertical mass flux in these experiments through subsidence into the subcloud layer, which results in a longer recovery time before deep convection develops. This process, as well as descending motion closer to the inner core, limits the radial width of deep convection, reduces the area of upward motions, …

Influence Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs On Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change And Structure : Observational, Reanalysis, And Idealized Numerical Modeling Perspectives, Casey Peirano

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The interaction between tropical cyclones (TCs) and upper-tropospheric troughs is a

Climate Modeling, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, And Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, Thomas Rechtman

Honors Undergraduate Theses

Climate modeling and tropical cyclone forecasting are two significant is- sues that are continuously being improved upon for more accurate weather forecasting and preparedness. In this thesis, we have studied three climate models and formulated a new model with a view to determine the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) as ob- served by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) satellite based Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). In 2006, Karnauskas proposed the African meridional OLR as an Atlantic hur- ricane predictor, the relation was further proven in 2016 by Karnauskas and Li …

The Upper-Level Turbulence, Static Stability And Tropopause Structure Of Tropical Cyclones, Patrick Duran

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Upper-tropospheric thermodynamic processes can play an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) structure and evolution. Despite its importance, until recently few in-situ observations were available in the upper levels of TCs. Two recent field campaigns -- the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) and the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment -- provided a wealth of high-altitude observations within TCs. These observations revealed that the upper-level static stability and tropopause structure of TCs can change dramatically with both space and time.

Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification In Environments Of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs : Environmental Influences And Convective Characteristics, Michael Fischer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones that undergo a period of rapid intensification are particularly susceptible to large errors. For those storms that interact with an upper-tropospheric trough, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are complicated, as upper-tropospheric troughs can provide unique intensification mechanisms, but are often associated with unfavorable environmental conditions. Although tropical cyclones in environments with nearby upper-tropospheric troughs are associated with lesser intensification rates than tropical cyclones in environments devoid of upper-tropospheric troughs, some tropical cyclone--trough interactions are associated with a period of rapid intensification. This dissertation utilizes reanalysis output, satellite observations, and ensemble modeling simulations to understand whether rapid …

How Lessons From A Past Disaster Can Influence Resilience And Climate Adaptation In Broward County, Florida, Hannah Rose Torres

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the face of future uncertainties, many places are struggling with decisions about how to prepare for and adapt to climate change. The purpose of this research is to shed light on the concept of resilience, and uncover lessons for resilience-building exposed by a past disaster, Hurricane Wilma.

The dissertation begins with an introduction (Chapter 1) detailing the research problem, key terms and overall research design. The study was conducted in three distinct phases. The first phase (Chapter 2), explored the concept of resilience to understand how it was defined in three South Florida communities. Content analyses of city and …

Ensemble Variability In Rainfall Forecasts Of Hurricane Irene (2011), Molly Becker Smith

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As tropical cyclones (TCs) move into the midlatitudes, they are often associated with extensive heavy precipitation. This precipitation can lead to widespread flooding events, such as occurred with Hurricane Irene (2011) over the northeastern United States. Despite the high-impact nature of these events, there are relatively few studies that explore the sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions, beyond focusing on the variability in forecast TC track.

Changing Trends In Wave Heights In The U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region, Hillary Lane

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The pace and effects of climate change are an area of constant focus for coastal engineers as evolving patterns in the atmosphere worldwide affect the oceans and coasts on a regional and global scale. Surface waves respond to changing wind patterns both locally and from propagating swell, and the difficulty in predicting future wind patterns is well-established. Expectations that climate change will result in more frequent and intense coastal storms and consequently greater wave heights in the North Atlantic are still unrealized, and recent forecasts from a variety of atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models instead predict decreasing wave heights through …

Determining The Influence Of Emission Pathways On Outgoing Longwave Radiation Over Africa, Thomas Rechtman

Thomas Rechtman

Sediment Records From Coastal Ponds: Temporal Archives Of Storm Inundation And Environmental Change, Christine M. Brandon

Doctoral Dissertations

Hurricanes are powerful storms that can cause billions of dollars in damage and kill many people when they strike populated coastal areas. Understanding how frequently coastal cities can expect storms of a certain magnitude would help inform more effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Unfortunately, current estimates of hurricane frequency rely on numerical models based on weather observations that, on the east coast of the United States, only extend ~150 years into the past. While this is sufficient for estimating the characteristics (i.e. wind speed and storm surge height) of annual or decadal storms, the properties of larger, rarer, and more …