Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

An Examination Of Physical And Empirical Approaches In Forecasting Nonconvective Wind Gusts, Jeramie Lippman

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Nonconvective winds can be a dangerous and costly weather hazard. For example, over a ten year span from 2002 to 2011, there were over 200 fatalities and nearly 1,000 injuries, as well as over 6.4 billion dollars in monetary losses due to high, nonconvective winds. An important subset to nonconvective winds is the nonconvective wind gust. When winds are already relatively strong, a sudden wind gust can magnify already existing hazards. Three different methods were evaluated to determine if either of two physically based algorithms can outperform an empirical algorithm. The two physically based methods were the Wind Gust Estimate …

The Use Of Tree Rings To Study The Impacts Of Stream Flow And Climate Variability On Native And Invasive Woody Species Along A Semi-Arid Riparian Ecosystem In The Great Plains, Usa., Kristen M. Skolaut

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Forested riparian areas of the Northern Great Plains have historically been dominated by the native Populus deltoides L. vegetation type. Changes in climate, stream flow, groundwater, and management practices in the past few decades have promoted the expansion of the upland native woody species Juniperus virginiana L. and the invasion of the non-native Elaeagnus angustifolia L. into these riparian ecosystems. This study aims at using dendrochronology, or the study of tree rings, to assess the impacts of intra- and inter- annual climatic variability and stream flow over the past decades, on the annual tree ring growth, oxygen and carbon isotopic …

Autumn Migration Of Mississippi Flyway Mallards As Determined By Satellite Telemetry, David George G. Krementz, Kwasi Asante, Luke W. Naylor

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We used satellite telemetry to study autumn migration timing, routes, stopover duration, and final destinations of mallards Anas platyrhynchos captured the previous spring in Arkansas from 2004 to 2007. Of those mallards that still had functioning transmitters on September 15 (n = 55), the average date when autumn migration began was October 23 (SE = 2.62 d; range = September 17–December 7). For those mallards that stopped for .1 d during migration, the average stopover length was 15.4 d (SE = 1.47 d). Ten mallards migrated nonstop to wintering sites. The eastern Dakotas were a heavily utilized stopover area. The …

Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience For Weather And Climate Information?, Linda Stalker Prokopy, Tonya Haigh, Amber Saylor Mase, Jim Angel, Chad Hart, Cody Knutson, Maria Carmen Lemos, Yun Jia Lo, Jean Mcguire, Lois Wright Morton, Jennifer Perron, Dennis Todey, Melissa Widhalm

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

As the climate in the midwestern United States becomes increasingly variable because of global climate change, it is critical to provide tools to the agricultural community to ensure adaptability and profitability of agricultural cropping systems. When used by farmers and their advisors, agricultural decision support tools can reduce uncertainty and risks in the planning, operation, and management decisions of the farm enterprise. Agricultural advisors have historically played a key role in providing information and guidance in these decisions. However, little is known about what these advisors know or think about weather and climate information and their willingness to incorporate this …

An Analysis Of Deep Convection Initiation Environments, Noah Lock

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Initiation is the part of the convective life cycle which is currently least understood and least well forecast. The inability to properly forecast the timing and/or location of deep convection initiation degrades forecast skill, especially during the warm season. The goals of this research are examine the spatiotemporal distribution of thunderstorm initiation points and to determine which atmospheric parameters (and ultimately processes) are most important for the initiation of thunderstorms. The spatiotemporal distribution of thunderstorm initiation points shows the expected peaks during summer and during the afternoon. The warm season also produces significant concentrations of initiation points near mountains, mainly …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Droughtscape- Fall 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ....................... 1

Updated resources ................... 1

Drought outlook and review... 2

2012 and past droughters..... 4

Summer impacts summary.... 6

Urban planners and drought..... 9

USDM wins CLEAN seal... 10

Meixiu Yu's Chinese SPEI... 11

Ethiopian project..... 12

Mexican VegDRI.... 13

Drought monitor sculpture.... 14

Catching Air - Those Magnificent Jumping Suwannee Sturgeons, Ken Sulak

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

It starts deep at the bottom of the dark silent river, three to four powerful tail beats and three sharp acoustic clicks. Then, a sudden upturn of the body and the fish explodes upward, 100 pounds going vertical, catching air, lots of air. A good jump can power a big fish, six to nine feet into the air. You have to be quick to get a photo, hang time is only about a second, but an accomplished jump by a big old Suwannee River Gulf Sturgeon is impressive; a magnificent display of power. The exit is almost vertical. The tail …

The Geologic Records Of Dust In The Quaternary, Daniel R. Muhs

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Study of geologic records of dust composition, sources and deposition rates is important for understanding the role of dust in the overall planetary radiation balance, fertilization of organisms in the world’s oceans, nutrient additions to the terrestrial biosphere and soils, and for paleoclimatic reconstructions. Both glacial and non-glacial processes produce fine-grained particles that can be transported by the wind. Geologic records of dust flux occur in a number of depositional archives for sediments: (1) loess deposits; (2) lake sediments; (3) soils; (4) deep-ocean basins; and (5) ice sheets and smaller glaciers. These archives have several characteristics that make them highly …

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

Accuracy Assessment Of Aqua-Modis Aerosol Optical Depth Over Coastal Regions: Importance Of Quality Flag And Sea Surface Wind Speed, Jacob Anderson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Using data collected from 62 coastal stations worldwide from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) from 2002-2011, accuracy assessments are made for coastal aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved from MODIS aboard the Aqua satellite. It is found that coastal AODs (at 550 nm) characterized respectively by the MODIS Dark Land (Land) surface algorithm, the Open Ocean (Ocean) algorithm, and AERONET all exhibit a log-normal distribution. After filtering by quality flags, the coastal MODIS AODs retrieved from the Land and Ocean algorithms are highly correlated with AERONET (with R²≈0.8), but only the Land algorithm AODs fall within the expected error …

A Climatological Analysis Of The Warm-Season Wind Regimes Of The Beaufort/Chukchi Seas Coasts, William J. Baule

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Climate records for wind speed, wind direction, and temperature are analyzed for the period from 1979-2009 for the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas region of the Arctic. Wind records have historically been subject to far fewer analyses than other meteorological variables, such as temperature or precipitation. This is particularly true for data sparse regions. Data were collected for a large area in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas region, which includes portions of Russia, the United States, and Canada. Data from 250 stations were collected from a variety of networks throughout the region and uniformly quality controlled. Eight long-term stations were identified for data completeness and …

Droughtscape- Summer 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report ....................... 1

Drought expanse....................... 1

Upcoming ranch workshops.... 3

Drought outlook and review ... 4

Spring impacts summary ......... 6

Hawaii impact workshops........ 9

Remote sensing of drought.... 10

China workshop ...................... 12

Life Cycle Boundaries And Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Beef Cattle, Quentin M. Dudley

Department of Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations and Theses

Beef cattle are estimated to directly contribute 26% of U.S. agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and future climate change policy may target reducing these emissions. Life cycle assessment (LCA) of GHG emissions from U.S. feedlot beef cattle was conducted to compare methods of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) with a more complete evaluation of emissions. The inclusion of emissions from crop production for feed, associated land use change, and other minor factors nearly doubled GHG emissions associated with beef feedlots from the EPA Annual Inventory estimate of 1611 kgCO₂e hd^-1 yr^-1 to 3182 ± 167 …

Climate's Role In Polar Bear Past [Letters], Kurt E. Galbreath, Joseph A. Cook, Eric P. Hoberg

Harold W. Manter Laboratory of Parasitology: Faculty and Staff Publications

Striking temporal concordance between the new date for divergence of polar bears and persistent freezing of the Arctic Ocean suggests that this may be one of relatively few instances in which a specific paleoclimatological episode can be convincingly linked to a specific evolutionary event, and it provides vivid demonstration of climatic forcing as a determinant of diversification in biological systems.

Periodicities Of Peak Current And Flash Multiplicity In Cloud To Ground Lightning, Alexander R. Gibbs

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Research on lightning has been conducted on various topics including thunderstorm electrification and climatology of lightning strikes however; there are still some characteristics of lightning that are not well known, such as flash multiplicity and peak current as a function of individual thunderstorms. These characteristics are the leading cause of injuries and damage each year. This study examines a severe weather event in Minnesota on 16 September 2006, in order to determine what may cause peak current and flash multiplicity. Cycles in peak current and flash multiplicity are identified and then associated with CAPE to determine if a thunderstorm’s updraft …

Reservoir Potential Of Sands Formed In Glaciomarine Environments: An Analog Study Based On Cenozoic Examples From Mcmurdo Sound, Antarctica, Christopher R. Fielding, Brian A. Blackstone, Tracy D. Frank, Zi Gui

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

This paper provides documentation of unexpectedly high-reservoir-quality glaciomarine sands found in the Cenozoic succession beneath McMurdo Sound, Antarctica, as an analogue study for evaluations of hydrocarbon prospectivity in basins elsewhere. The Oligocene to Lower Miocene succession of the Victoria Land Basin, an extant portion of the West Antarctic Rift System, comprises diamictites, mudrocks, and sandstones with minor conglomerates. These lithologies are arranged in repetitive stacking patterns (cycles), interpreted to record repeated advance and retreat of glaciers into and out of the basin, with attendant eustatic and isostatic effects. Phases of ice retreat within the cycles comprise an array of mudrocks, …

Droughtscape- Spring 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Contents

Director’s report......................1

Climate Masters ..................... 1

Ranch plan workshop ............. 3

Winter climate summary ........ 4

Winter impacts summary ....... 6

Zhao research.........................9

Getachew research ..............10

Other international news......12

Wardlow move ..................... 13

IPCC disaster report .............14

Water And Energy Balance Response Of A Riparian Wetland To The Removal Of Phragmites Australis, Phillip Mykleby

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Vegetation and climate both play integral roles in water availability, particularly for arid to semi-arid regions. Changes in these variables can lead to extreme shortages in water for regions that rely on water for crop irrigation (i.e., the Great Plains). The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts of vegetation on water availability in the Republican River basin in central Nebraska. Decreases in streamflow have been observed in the river basin for many years and, as a result, an invasive riparian plant species (Phragmites australis) is being removed in an effort to reduce evapotranspiration and reclaim …

Feeding Habitats Of The Gulf Sturgeon, Acipenser Oxyrinchus Desotoi, In The Suwannee And Yellow Rivers, Florida, As Identified By Multiple Stable Isotope Analyses, Kenneth J. Sulak, J. J. Berg, M. Randall

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Stable ¹³C, ¹⁵N, and ³⁴S isotopes were analyzed to define the feeding habitats of Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi in the Suwannee and Yellow River populations. For the majority (93.9%) of Suwannee sub adults and adults, 13C and 34S signatures indicate use of nearshore marine waters as primary winter feeding habitat, probably due to the limiting size of the Suwannee Sound estuary. In the Yellow River population, 13C isotope signatures indicate that adults remain primarily within Pensacola Bay estuary to feed in winter, rather than immigrating to the open Gulf of Mexico. A minor Suwannee River subset (6% of …

Habitat And Prey Availability Attributes Associated With Juvenile And Early Adult Pallid Sturgeon Occurrence In The Missouri River, Usa, Bryan D. Spindler, Steven R. Chipps, Robert A. Klumb, Brian D. S. Graeb, Michael C. Wimberly

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus is a federally endangered species native to the Missouri and lower Mississippi Rivers, USA. As part of recovery efforts, over 360 000 pallid sturgeon have been stocked into the Missouri River since 1994, and a standardized, long-term monitoring program was initiated in 2003. Understanding the distribution and habitat requirements of juvenile and early adult pallid sturgeon (fork length <720 mm, age <10 yr) is an important goal of the monitoring and recovery programs. In this study, we collected information on habitat characteristics and prey availability from the upper Missouri River along the Nebraska-South Dakota border and compared these attributes between capture (present) and non-capture (absent) locations (N = 59). To evaluate the relative influence of habitat and prey availability on pallid sturgeon occurrence, we examined several candidate models using an informationtheoretic approach. A prey availability model had the most support and included site-specific information on Diptera and Ephemeroptera abundance. A habitat-based model showed that juveniles and early adults were found in relatively deeper water and avoided areas where bottom velocities were greater than 1.2 m s−1. Although not as well supported as the prey-effects model (evidence ratio = 6.4), habitat features also provided a plausible model for predicting occurrence. The models developed here could be used to evaluate pallid sturgeon habitat potential in the Missouri River basin and help guide future monitoring and conservation management of this endangered species.

Heterogeneous Detection Probabilities For Imperiled Missouri River Fishes: Implications For Large-River Monitoring Programs, Joshua T. Schloesser, Craig P. Paukert, Wyatt J. Doyle, Tracy D. Hill, Kirk D. Steffensen, Vince H. Travnichek

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Occupancy modeling was used to determine (1) if detection probabilities (p) for 7 regionally imperiled Missouri River fishes (Scaphirhynchus albus, Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, Cycleptus elongatus, Sander canadensis, Macrhybopsis aestivalis, Macrhybopsis gelida, and Macrhybopsis meeki) differed among gear types (i.e. stationary gill nets, drifted trammel nets, and otter trawls), and (2) how detection probabilities were affected by habitat (i.e. pool, bar, and open water), longitudinal position (five 189 to 367 rkm long segments), sampling year (2003 to 2006), and season (July 1 to October 30 and October 31 to June 30). Adult, large-bodied fishes were …

The Response Of Calcareous Nannofossil Communities To Environmental Variation During The Late Middle Eocene At Blake Nose, Western North Atlantic, Odp Leg 171b, Johnathon P. Kell

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 171B Hole 1051B penetrated a continuous sequence of upper middle Eocene pelagic sediment dominated by rich calcareous nannofossil assemblages. Samples were taken at 10 cm spacing from a 20.2 meter section of the upper middle Eocene. This interval of pelagic sediment had previously been interpreted to represent ~500ky. Our revised age model, using additional data, indicates this section represents ~842ky.

The Eocene Epoch was characterized by one of the most dramatic climatic transitions in the last 65 my, changing the greenhouse earth of the early Eocene to the icehouse world of early Oligocene. Here changes in …

Interannual And Spatial Impacts Of Phenological Transitions, Growing Season Length, And Spring And Autumn Temperatures On Carbon Sequestration: A North America Flux Data Synthesis, Chaoyang Wu, Alemu Gonsamo, Jing Ming Chen, Werner A. Kurz, David T. Price, Peter M. Lafleur, Rachhpal S. Jassal, Danilo Dragoni, Gil Bohrer, Christopher M. Gough, Shashi B. Verma, Andrew E. Suyker, J. William Munger

School of Natural Resources: Faculty Publications

Understanding feedbacks of ecosystem carbon sequestration to climate change is an urgent step in developing future ecosystem models. Using 187 site-years of flux data observed at 24 sites covering three plant functional types (i.e. evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF) and non-forest ecosystems (NF) (e.g., crop, grassland, wetland)) in North America, we present an analysis of both interannual and spatial relationships between annual net ecosystem production (NEP) and phenological indicators, including the flux-based carbon uptake period (CUP) and its transitions, degree-day-derived growing season length (GSL), and spring and autumn temperatures. Diverse responses were acquired between annul NEP and these indicators …

Droughtscape- Winter 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

Drought Planning for Kansas Ranchers Jan. 21

South Hoping La Niña Dryness Stays Away

2011 Brought Record-Breaking Extent of D4

Reported Impacts Ease as Growing Season Ends

Disaster Planning in Nanjing at Hohai U

Ag, Fire and Water Supply Topped 2011 Impacts

Fragilariopsis Tigris Sp. Nov., A New Late Pliocene Antarctic Continental Shelf Diatom With Biostratigraphic Promise, Christina R. Riesselman

ANDRILL Research and Publications

Anew species within the genus Fragilariopsis, F. tigris, is described and illustrated using light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. This species is restricted to a single 8-meter-thick diatom unit within the 585-meter-long section of alternating diatomites and diamictites recovered in the upper portion of the ANtarctic geological DRILLing (ANDRILL) McMurdo Ice Shelf Project (MIS) AND-1B marine sediment core. This new taxon from a diverse, well-preserved diatom assemblage is inferred to be the youngest member of the well-documented, biostratigraphically useful F. praeinterfrigidaria – F. interfrigidaria – F. weaveri lineage and may represent a near-shore corollary to the open-ocean species …

Diatom Evidence For The Onset Of Pliocene Cooling From And-1b, Mcmurdo Sound, Antarctica, Christina R. Riesselman, Robert B. Dunbar

ANDRILL Research and Publications

The late Pliocene, ~3.3–3.0 Ma, is the most recent interval of sustained global warmth in the geologic past. This window is the focus of climate reconstruction efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Data/Model Cooperative, and may provide a useful climate analog for the coming century. Reconstructions of past surface ocean conditions proximal to the Antarctic continent are essential to understanding the sensitivity of the cryosphere to this key interval in Earth’s climate evolution. An exceptional marine sediment core collected from the southwestern Ross Sea (78° S), Antarctica, during ANDRILL’s McMurdo Ice Shelf Project …

A Diatom Record Of Late Pliocene Cooling From The Ross Sea Continental Shelf, And-1b, Antarctica, Charlotte Sjunneskog, Diane Winter

ANDRILL Research and Publications

A late Pliocene – early Pleistocene, 2.9–2.0Ma, diatom record from the Antarctic Geological Drilling Program (ANDRILL) MIS drillcore AND-1B is presented. This core, recovered from beneath the Ross Ice Shelf south of Ross Island, comprises multiple diatomaceous-sediment units deposited during interglacial periods with open water over the core site. These represent interglacial phases of orbitally paced climate cycles and are punctuated by glacial advances. Extant diatom assemblages have limited presence in the late Pliocene record, which makes environmental interpretation less straight forward. We employ modern ecological data in combination with late Pliocene to present variation in diatom assemblages across the …

Fragilariopsis Diatom Evolution In Pliocene And Pleistocene Antarctic Shelf Sediments, Charlotte Sjunneskog, Christina R. Riesselman, Diane Winter, Reed Scherer

ANDRILL Research and Publications

The late Pliocene – early Pleistocene sediment record in the AND-1B core from the McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea, Antarctica, displays a rich diversity and high abundance of diatoms, including several new morphologies within the genus Fragilariopsis. These new morphologies exhibit similarities to the extinct late Miocene/early Pliocene species Fragilariopsis aurica Gersonde and Fragilariopsis praecurta Gersonde, as well as to the modern sea ice-associated species Fragilariopsis ritscheri Hustedt and Fragilariopsis obliquecostata van Heurck. From the diverse morphologies present, we use light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy to identify and describe the characteristics of three new taxa, Fragilariopsis laqueata Riesselman, Fragilariopsis …

Standardized Precipitation Index: User Guide, Mark Svoboda, Michael Hayes, Deborah Wood

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Over the years, there has been much discussion on what drought indices should be used in a particular climate and for what application. Many drought definitions and indices have been developed and attempts have been made to provide some guidance on this issue. With this in mind, the Interregional Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems for Drought was organized and held at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, United States of America, from 8 to 11 December 2009. It was jointly sponsored by the School of Natural Resources (SNR) of the University of Nebraska, the United States National Drought Mitigation Center …