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Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

University at Albany, State University of New York

2015

Articles 1 - 9 of 9

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Evolution Of African Easterly Waves And Their Relationship To Tropical Cyclogenesis, Alan Brammer Jan 2015

Evolution Of African Easterly Waves And Their Relationship To Tropical Cyclogenesis, Alan Brammer

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The research in this thesis explores the relationship between African easterly waves (AEWs) and tropical cyclogenesis over the eastern Atlantic. This research utilises 33 years of reanalysis and satellite data to investigate the interaction between AEW troughs, the surrounding environment and the embedded vortex.

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Evaluating Preferred Direction Tropical Cyclone Track Variability In An Operational Global Ensemble Prediction System, Travis Elless Jan 2015

Evaluating Preferred Direction Tropical Cyclone Track Variability In An Operational Global Ensemble Prediction System, Travis Elless

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Ensemble forecasts of Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight instances where variability in tropical cyclone (TC) position forecasts are stretched along a preferred direction. The goal of this thesis is to analyze this stretching of variability in a global ensemble prediction system, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), to determine how often and under what conditions does variability stretching occur, and ultimately what feature(s) are responsible for generating this variability.

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Diagnosis Of The Source Of Medium-Range Forecast Errors For An Extratropical Cyclone, William Lamberson Jan 2015

Diagnosis Of The Source Of Medium-Range Forecast Errors For An Extratropical Cyclone, William Lamberson

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Medium-range forecasts of an extratropical cyclone set to impact Western Europe on 16 Dec 2011 consistently predicted that the cyclone would be intense, with a minimum pressure as low as 930-hPa and an expansive area of high winds. In actuality, the cyclone never deepened below 965-hPa and its impact on Western Europe was minimal.

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The Impacts Of Varability In Temperature And Humidity On Electricity Consumption In New York State, Eric Adamchick Jan 2015

The Impacts Of Varability In Temperature And Humidity On Electricity Consumption In New York State, Eric Adamchick

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

A seasonal harmonic linear regression approach is presented to model the seasonal and diurnal relationships between surface weather observations and electricity load data in New York State. The relationships between dry-bulb, dew point, and wet-bulb temperatures with electricity load were evaluated using the correlation coefficient to test the strength of the relationships, while the regression slope coefficient provided an interpretable scale for those relationships. We found that the strongest seasonal and diurnal relationships occur during boreal summer from the afternoon through the overnight hours, while similar but negative relationships are observed during the winter. Using the same seasonal harmonic linear …

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The Intensification Of Sheared Tropical Cyclones, Leon Nguyen Jan 2015

The Intensification Of Sheared Tropical Cyclones, Leon Nguyen

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Environmental vertical wind shear has been shown to have a generally detrimental impact on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. However, many cases of rapidly intensifying (RI) sheared TCs have been observed, and TCs in moderate (5-10 m s-1) shear often have the largest intensity forecast errors. Thus, advancing the understanding of TC-shear interactions is vital to improving TC intensity forecasts, which have not seen much improvement over the past few decades. This dissertation employs both observational and high-resolution numerical modeling approaches to investigate how some TCs are able to resist shear and intensify.

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The Variability Of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection And The Role Of The Western Hemisphere Circulation, Naoko Sakaeda Jan 2015

The Variability Of Madden-Julian Oscillation Convection And The Role Of The Western Hemisphere Circulation, Naoko Sakaeda

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The convective initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Indian basin is often associated with eastward-propagating intraseasonal circulation approaching from the Western Hemisphere (WH), which is suggested to influence the onset of MJO convection. This dissertation first documents the event-to-event variability in the characteristics of MJO convection, which shows a geographical discrepancy in the relative roles of moist and dry dynamics on MJO convection. This dissertation then examines the structural evolution and dynamics of the intraseasonal upper-tropospheric circumnavigating circulation over the WH and its subsequent impact on MJO convection over the Indian basin, where MJO convective characteristics are highly …

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Modulation Of East African Precipitation By The Indian Ocean Dipole (Iod) And Enso, Ahmed Shaaban Jan 2015

Modulation Of East African Precipitation By The Indian Ocean Dipole (Iod) And Enso, Ahmed Shaaban

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tropical East Africa is influenced by two main rainy seasons, during autumn and spring. During autumn, tropical East African precipitation is clearly influenced by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or ENSO. During spring, there is no clear SST pattern in the Indian Ocean. The association between El Niño and positive IOD phases is much stronger than the association between La Niña and negative IOD during October and November. During October, the association between El Niño and wet condition over tropical eastern Africa is stronger than association between La Niña and dry conditions. During November, the association between positive IOD and eastern …

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Extreme Hydrometeorological Events In The Peruvian Central Andes During Austral Summer And Their Relationship With The Large-Scale Circulation, Juan Carlos Sulca Jan 2015

Extreme Hydrometeorological Events In The Peruvian Central Andes During Austral Summer And Their Relationship With The Large-Scale Circulation, Juan Carlos Sulca

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In this Master's dissertation, atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme hydrometeorological events in the Mantaro Basin, Peruvian Central Andes, and their teleconnections during the austral summer (December-January-February-March) are addressed. Extreme rainfall events in the Mantaro basin are related to variations of the large-scale circulation as indicated by the changing strength of the Bolivian High-Nordeste Low (BH-NL) system. Dry (wet) spells are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of the BH-NL system and reduced (enhanced) influx of moist air from the lowlands to the east due to strengthened westerly (easterly) wind anomalies at mid- and upper-tropospheric levels. At the same time extreme …

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An Analysis Of High-Impact, Low-Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events In The Northeast U.S, Matthew Thomas Vaughan Jan 2015

An Analysis Of High-Impact, Low-Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events In The Northeast U.S, Matthew Thomas Vaughan

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

An objective evaluation of Storm Prediction Center slight risk convective outlooks, as well as a method to identify high-impact severe weather events with poor-predictive skill are presented in this study. The objectives are to assess severe weather forecast skill over the northeast U.S. relative to the continental U.S., build a climatology of high-impact, low-predictive skill events between 1980–2013, and investigate the dynamic and thermodynamic differences between severe weather events with low-predictive skill and high-predictive skill over the northeast U.S. Severe storm reports of hail, wind, and tornadoes are used to calculate skill scores including probability of detection (POD), false alarm …

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