Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Wave Heating And Jeans Escape In The Martian Upper Atmosphere, R. L. Walterscheid, Michael P. Hickey Ph.D., G. Schubert

Publications

Gusty flow over rough terrain is likely to be a significant source of fast gravity waves and acoustic waves in the atmosphere of Mars, as it is in Earth’s atmosphere. Accordingly, we have used a numerical model to study the dissipation in the thermosphere and exosphere of Mars of upward-propagating fast gravity waves and acoustic waves. Model simulations are performed for a range of wave periods and horizontal wavelengths. Wave amplitudes are constrained by the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey aerobraking data, and gravity wave phase velocities are limited by occultation data. Dissipating gravity waves heat some regions of …

Observed Versus Gcm-Generated Local Tropical Cyclone Frequency: Comparisons Using A Spatial Lattice, Sarah Strazzo, Daniel J. Halperin, James Elsner, Tim Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

Of broad scientific and public interest is the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future regional and local tropical cyclone (TC) occurrences. Atmospheric GCMs are now able to generate vortices resembling actual TCs, but questions remain about their fidelity to observed TCs. Here the authors demonstrate a spatial lattice approach for comparing actual with simulated TC occurrences regionally using observed TCs from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset and GCM-generated TCs from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) and Florida State University (FSU) Center for Ocean–Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) …

Ionospheric Signatures Of Acoustic Waves Generated By Transient Tropospheric Forcing, M. D. Zettergren, J. B. Snively

Publications

Acoustic waves generated by tropospheric sources may attain significant amplitudes in the thermosphere and overlying ionosphere. Although they are weak precursors to gravity waves in the mesosphere below, acoustic waves may achieve temperature and vertical wind perturbations on the order of approximately tens of Kelvin and m/s throughout the E and F regions. Their perturbations to total electron content are predicted to be detectable by groundbased radar and GPS receivers; they also drive field-aligned currents that may be detectable in situ via magnetometers. Although transient and short lived, ionospheric signatures of acoustic waves may provide new and quantitative insight into …

A Meteorological Analysis Of Important Contributions To The 1999-2005 Canadian Prairie Drought, Lisa M. Hryciw, Eyad H. Atallah, Shawn M. Milrad, John R. Gyakum

Publications

Drought is a complex natural hazard that is endemic to the Canadian prairies. The 1999–2005 Canadian prairie drought, which had great socioeconomic impacts, was meteorologically unique in that it did not conform to the traditional persistent positive Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern and west coast ridging paradigm normally associated with prairie drought. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the unique synoptic-scale mechanisms responsible for modulating subsidence during this drought. Using 30-day running means of the percent of normal precipitation from station data, key severe dry periods during 1999–2005 are identified. Analysis of the mean fields from reanalysis data shows …

Numerical And Statistical Evidence For Long-Range Ducted Gravity Wave Propagation Over Halley, Antarctica, J. B. Snively, K. Nielsen, M. P. Hickey, C. J. Heale, M. J. Taylor, T. Moffat-Griffin

Publications

Abundant short-period, small-scale gravity waves have been identified in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere over Halley, Antarctica, via ground-based airglow image data. Although many are observed as freely propagating at the heights of the airglow layers, new results under modeled conditions reveal that a significant fraction of these waves may be subject to reflections at altitudes above and below.The waves may at times be trapped within broad thermal ducts, spanning from the tropopause or stratopause to the base of the thermosphere (~140 km), which may facilitate long-range propagation (~1000s of km) under favorable wind conditions.

Mesospheric Hydroxyl Airglow Signatures Of Acoustic And Gravity Waves Generated By Transient Tropospheric Forcing, J. B. Snively

Publications

"Numerical model results demonstrate that acoustic waves generated by tropospheric sources may produce cylindrical “concentric ring” signatures in the mesospheric hydroxyl airglow layer. They may arrive as precursors to upward propagating gravity waves, generated simultaneously by the same sources, and produce strong temperature perturbations in the thermosphere above. Transient and short-lived, the acoustic wave airglow intensity and temperature signatures are predicted to be detectable by ground-based airglow imaging systems and may provide new insight into the forcing of the upper atmosphere from below."--From publisher's website.

Synoptic-Scale Precursors, Characteristics And Typing Of Nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes In The Great Plains, Shawn M. Milrad, Cailee M. Kelly

Publications

Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) occur frequently during the warm season in the central U.S. and can produce flooding rains, hail and tornadoes. Previous work has found that the synoptic-scale environment can greatly affect, and be affected by, the development and maintenance of MCCs. Ninetytwo MCC cases from 2006–2011 are manually identified using infrared satellite imagery and partitioned into three types (upstream trough, zonal and ridge) using a unique manual synoptic typing based on 500- hPa height patterns. Upstream trough cases feature an amplified longwave 500-hPa trough upstream of the MCC genesis region (GR), while the 500-hPa flow is relatively flat …

Sensitivity Of Limiting Hurricane Intensity To Sst In The Atlantic From Observations And Gcms, James Elsner, Sarah Strazzo, Thomas H. Jagger, Timothy Larow, Ming Zhao

Publications

No abstract provided.

Frequency, Intensity, And Sensitivity To Sea Surface Temperature Of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones In Best-Track And Simulated Data, Sarah Strazzo, James B. Elsner, Jill C. Trepanier, Kerry A. Emanuel

Publications

Synthetic hurricane track data generated from a downscaling approach are compared to best-track (observed) data to analyze differences in regional frequency, intensity, and sensitivity of limiting intensity to sea surface temperature (SST). Overall, the spatial distributions of observed and simulated hurricane counts match well, although there are relatively fewer synthetic storms in the eastern quarter of the basin. Additionally, regions of intense synthetic hurricanes tend to coincide with regions of intense observed hurricanes. The sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST computed from synthetic data is slightly lower than sensitivity computed from observed data (5.561.31 m s21 (standard error, SE) …

The Optical Manifestation Of Dispersive Field‐Aligned Bursts In Auroral Breakup Arcs, H. Dahlgren, J. L. Semeter, R. A. Marshall, M. Zettergren

Publications

High‐resolution optical observations of a substorm expansion show dynamic auroral rays with surges of luminosity traveling up the magnetic field lines. Observed in ground‐based imagers, this phenomenon has been termed auroral flames, whereas the rocket signatures of the corresponding energy dispersions are more commonly known as field‐aligned bursts. In this paper, observations of auroral flames obtained at 50 frames/s with a scientific‐grade Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) sensor (30° × 30° field of view, 30 m resolution at 120 km) are used to provide insight into the nature of the precipitating electrons similar to high‐resolution particle detectors. Thanks to the …

Tips From The Board Of Broadcast Meteorology For Gaining The Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (Cbm) Designation, Rob Eicher

Publications

These notes are intended to maximize the likelihood that you will pass the AMS CBM evaluation on your first attempt. Typically half of first-time applicants pass the evaluation.

Precipitation Modulation By The Saint Lawrence River Valley In Association With Transitioning Tropical Cyclones, Shawn M. Milrad, Eyad H. Atallah, John R. Gyakum

Publications

The St. Lawrence River valley (SLRV) is an important orographic feature in eastern Canada that can affect surface wind patterns and contribute to locally higher amounts of precipitation. The impact of the SLRV on precipitation distributions associated with transitioning, or transitioned, tropical cyclones that approached the region is assessed. Such cases can result in heavy precipitation during the warm season, as during the transition of Hurricane Ike (2008). Thirty-eight tropical cyclones tracked within 500 km of the SLRV from 1979 to 2011. Utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), 19 of the 38 cases …

A Thermodynamic Analysis Of An Intense North American Arctic Air Mass, Jessica K. Turner, John Gyakum, Shawn M. Milrad

Publications

Northwestern Canada is a genesis region of arctic air masses often considered to be formed primarily through radiative processes. However, the details of their life cycle are poorly understood. This paper examines the formation, maintenance, and dissipation of an intense and long-lived arctic air mass, using a thermodynamic budget analysis.

The airmass formation is characterized by a deep-layer, multistage process that begins with snow falling into a nascent air mass. Radiative cooling from cloud tops begins the process. After the snow abates and clear skies are observed, the surface temperature drops rapidly, aided by the high emissivity of fresh snow …