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Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology

Air Force Institute of Technology

Theses/Dissertations

2019

Articles 1 - 10 of 10

Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics

Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore Mar 2019

Quantifying Uncertainty Of Ensemble Transport And Dispersion Simulations Using Hysplit, Daniel W. Bazemore

Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty associated with determining the source location of nuclear pollutants in the atmosphere after a nuclear fallout using a numerical model is difficult to determine. Uncertainty can originate from input data (meteorological and emissions), internal model error, physics parameterizations, and stochastic processes. This study uses the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model with data from the 1983 Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) (Ferber et al. 1986) and simulating six nuclear detonations (Rolph et al. 2014) to quantify and communicate uncertainty in ensemble dispersion simulations. This is accomplished by utilizing an ensemble of forward trajectory simulations varying initial conditions …

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Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer Mar 2019

Coupled Atmospheric Surface Observations With Surface Aerosol Particle Counts For Daytime Sky Radiance Quantification, Scott S. Wolfmeyer

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the radiative transfer code, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), developed by the Center for Directed Energy at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Many multi- and hyperspectral applications are limited to the nighttime due in large part to daytime solar background noise and it is advantageous to be able to quantify this background noise using LEEDR. Real-time meteorological surface observations, numerical weather prediction, and aerosol particle concentrations were used to investigate the accuracy of LEEDR radiances simulations. Comparisons between simulations and measured values show that aerosol concentrations, weather predictions, and meteorological observations provide enough information …

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Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasting Over Africa Using The Galwem, William A. Hanson Mar 2019

Analysis Of The Gálvez-Davison Index For Convective Forecasting Over Africa Using The Galwem, William A. Hanson

Theses and Dissertations

From the hot, arid Sahara Desert to the humid, West African monsoon, Africa is a continent with vastly different weather and climate patterns from one region to the next. For this reason, thunderstorm forecasting over Africa has presented significant difficulty. The Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI) was developed for the Americas and provides a more accurate convective forecasting index than the conventional indices for thunderstorm forecasting, including the K, Total Totals, Showalter, and Lifted indices. Previous research using the GDI via the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model data over Africa showed promising results for areal coverage (Donndelinger 2018), especially during the spring …

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Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski Mar 2019

Comparing Dual-Polarization Radar Lightning Forecast Methods Across Southwest Utah, Daniel O. Katuzienski

Theses and Dissertations

Lightning poses a significant hazard to space launch operations to include ground processing, launch window forecasts, and rocket-triggered lightning events. Two lightning initiation forecast methods using weather radar developed in Gremillion and Orville (1999) and Travis (2015) for Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida are tested in a new geographical region. This is accomplished by applying the highest-performing radar parameters from Gremillion and Orville (1999): reectivity (Z) ≥ 40 dBZ for two consecutive volume scans at the -10°C thermal height and Travis (2015): Z ≥ 36.5 dBZ with differential reflectivity (ZDR) ≥ 0.31 dB …

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Variations Of Heavy Ion Abundances Relative To Proton Abundances In Large Solar Energetic Particle Events, Joseph F. Round Mar 2019

Variations Of Heavy Ion Abundances Relative To Proton Abundances In Large Solar Energetic Particle Events, Joseph F. Round

Theses and Dissertations

Past studies of heavy ions (Z>2) in large (E>10 MeV/nuc) gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events have focused on elemental abundances relative to those of a single element, such as Fe or O, and have often neglected ionized H (the primary element used for space weather purposes). This work analyzes SEP abundances in a group of 15 large gradual SEP events from 2000 to 2015 across the energy range of 13.5-50.7 MeV. Hourly flux averages of He, C, O, Mg and Fe from the Advanced Composition Explorer/Solar Isotope Spectrometer (ACE/SIS) are compared to two-hour averages of H flux …

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Global Ionosonde And Gps Radio Occultation Sporadic-E Intensity And Height Comparison, Joshua Y. Gooch Mar 2019

Global Ionosonde And Gps Radio Occultation Sporadic-E Intensity And Height Comparison, Joshua Y. Gooch

Theses and Dissertations

A global, multi-year comparison of low and mid-latitude COSMIC GPS radio occultation (RO) sporadic-E (Es) plasma frequency and altitude and Digisonde blanketing frequency (fbEs) and altitude within 150 km and 30 minutes of each other. RO methods used to estimate the intensity of the Es layer include the scintillation index S4, total electron content (TEC) with both a constant and variable Es cloud thickness, and an Abel transform. The S4 and TEC with varying thickness techniques both under-represent the fbEs values while the TEC with constant thickness and Abel transform better estimate Digisonde fbEs values. …

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Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick Mar 2019

Source Term Estimation Of Atmospheric Pollutants Using An Ensemble Of Hysplit Concentration Simulations, Casey L. Zoellick

Theses and Dissertations

In support of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring and nuclear event detection, this study works toward source term estimation (STE) of dispersive pollutants using a novel method|an ensemble of forward trajectory concentration simulations using a meteorology-coupled dispersion model. Traditionally a mathematically and physically rigorous problem, STE of a plume of atmospheric pollutants can be solved in a variety of ways depending on what is known regarding the emission, but little has been studied on the sensitivity between the horizontal resolution of the meteorology data in relation to the dispersion model and the results derived from known concentrations at multiple locations. …

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Characterization Of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Microwave Imagery, Amanda M. Nelson Mar 2019

Characterization Of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using Microwave Imagery, Amanda M. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

In the absence of wind speed data from aircraft reconnaissance of tropical cyclones (TCs), analysts rely on remote sensing tools to estimate TC intensity. For over 40 years, the Dvorak technique has been applied to estimate intensity using visible and infrared (IR) satellite imagery, but its accuracy is sometimes limited when the radiative effects of high clouds obscure the TC convective structure below. Microwave imagery highlights areas of precipitation and deep convection revealing different patterns than visible and IR imagery. This study explores application of machine learning algorithms to identify patterns in microwave imagery to infer storm intensity, particularly focusing …

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Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold Mar 2019

Effect Of Using Probabilistic Contingency Tables To Modify Forecast Predictions, Sarah A. Gold

Theses and Dissertations

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) records daily rain and lightning probabilistic forecasts and the associated binary event outcomes. Subsequently, they evaluate forecast performance and determine necessary adjustments with an implemented verification process. For deterministic outcomes, weather forecast analysis typically utilizes a Tradition Contingency Table (TCT) for verification, however the 45 WS uses an alternative tool, the Probabilistic Contingency Table (PCT). Using the TCT for verification requires a threshold, typically at 50%, to dichotomize probabilistic forecasts. The PCT maintains the valuable information in probabilities and verifies the true forecasts being reported. Simulated forecasts and outcomes as well as 2015-2018 45 …

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Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza Mar 2019

Lightning Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Networks, Dominick V. Speranza

Theses and Dissertations

Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB) all reside in the thunderstorm capital of the United States. According to the Florida Climate Center, these installations experience more thunderstorms per year than any other place in the United States. It is the mission of the 45th Weather Squadron to provide timely and accurate warnings of weather conditions such as lightning that pose a risk to assets and personnel CCAFS, KSC and PAFB. To aid 45th Weather Squadron forecasters, a network of 30 Electric Field Mills (EFM) was installed in the area in …

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