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Full-Text Articles in Physical Sciences and Mathematics
The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns
The Reliability And Skill Of Air Force Weather’S Ensemble Prediction Suites, Derek A. Burns
Theses and Dissertations
The Ensemble Prediction Suites (EPS) used at the 557th Weather Wing (557 WW) provide probability based forecasts for thousands of worldwide locations. Point Ensemble Probability (PEP) bulletins are tailored specifically to the United States military and its criteria for operationally significant weather. This study assesses the performance of PEPs from each EPS at 17 Continental United States (CONUS) locations. Results from April to October of 2015 show that each EPS is underforecasting ceilings and visibility for most forecast hours at several locations. The underforecasting of ceilings is most severe at Vandenberg AFB, an area prone to frequent marine layer fog …
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Forecasting Sea Breeze Enhanced Thunderstorms At Eglin Air Force Base: A Comparison Between Empirical Methods And The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, Matthew P. King
Theses and Dissertations
Summer thunderstorms pose the greatest forecast challenge for the United States Air Force's 96th Weather Flight (96WF) which provides weather support for Eglin Air Force Base (AFB). Located on Florida's panhandle, Eglin AFB encompasses the Department of Defense's largest range complex which covers 134,000 sq mi (347,000 sq km) of water and 724 sq mi (1875 sq km) of land. Due to the base's coastal location and unique coastline geometry, sea breeze is a dominant forecast consideration for thunderstorms. The 96 WF currently utilizes an empirical method, called WINNDEX, developed by former staff meteorologist Roger Winn to aid in thunderstorm …