Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Microscale To Mesoscale Modeling Of The Ocean Under Tropical Cyclones: Effects Of Sea Spray And Surfactants On Tropical Cyclone Intensity And Air-Sea Gas Exchange, Breanna Lynn Cain Vanderplow

All HCAS Student Capstones, Theses, and Dissertations

Tropical cyclone intensity prediction remains a challenge despite computational and observational developments because successful intensity forecasting requires implementing a multitude of atmospheric and oceanic processes. Hurricane Maria 2017 and Hurricane Dorian 2019 serve as prime examples of rapidly intensifying storms that devastated communities in the Caribbean. A lack of understanding and parameterization of crucial physics involved in tropical cyclone intensity in existing forecast models may have led to these and other forecasting errors.

Microscale physical processes at the air-sea interface are a major factor in intensification of tropical cyclones that are often unaccounted for in forecasting models since they are …

Effects Of Surfactants On The Generation Of Sea Spray During Tropical Cyclones, Breanna L. Vanderplow

All HCAS Student Capstones, Theses, and Dissertations

Despite significant improvement in computational and observational capabilities, predicting intensity and intensification of major tropical cyclones remains a challenge. In 2017 Hurricane Maria intensified to a Category 5 storm within 24 hours, devastating Puerto Rico. In 2019 Hurricane Dorian, predicted to remain tropical storm, unexpectedly intensified into a Category 5 storm and destroyed the Bahamas. The official forecast and computer models were unable to predict rapid intensification of these storms. One possible reason for this is that key physics, including microscale processes at the air-sea interface, are poorly understood and parameterized in existing forecast models.

Under tropical cyclones, the air-sea …

Barrier Layer Impact On Rapid Intensification Of Hurricanes (2000-2018) In The Atlantic Ocean, J. Gaston Hayworth

HCNSO Student Capstones

Hurricane prediction is an evolving challenge that has seen much improvement over the years. While hurricane models have improved in predicting the path of storms, forecasts of hurricane intensity are unreliable due to the complexity of environmental data, lack of understanding of how relative humidity, vertical wind shear, hurricane structure and other possible factors affect intensity. Rapid Intensification (RI), which is a wind speed increase of +30 kts over a 24-hr period, can contribute to major destruction and loss of life to coastal communities affected by hurricanes, and is especially difficult to predict. Given the continued development of coastal regions …