Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Mixtures Of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves, Mithat Gonen

Mithat Gönen

Rationale and Objectives: ROC curves are ubiquitous in the analysis of imaging metrics as markers of both diagnosis and prognosis. While empirical estimation of ROC curves remains the most popular method, there are several reasons to consider smooth estimates based on a parametric model.

Materials and Methods: A mixture model is considered for modeling the distribution of the marker in the diseased population motivated by the biological observation that here is more heterogeneity in the diseased population than there is in the normal one. It is shown that this model results in an analytically tractable ROC curve which is itself …

Multinomial Logistic Regression: An Application To Estimating Performance Of A Multiple Screening Test For Bowel Cancer When Negatives Are Unverified., Chris Lloyd, Don Frommer

Chris J. Lloyd

This paper describes a method of estimating the performance of a multiple screening test where those who test negative do not have their true disease status determined. The methodology is motivated by a dataset on 49,927 subjects who were given K=6 binary tests for bowel cancer. A complicating factor is that individuals may have polyps present in the bowel, a condition that the screening test is not designed to detect but which may be worth diagnosing. The methodology is based on a multinomial logit model for Pr(S|R_6), the probability distribution of patient status S (healthy, polyps or diseased) conditional on …

Adjusting For Non-Ignorable Verification Bias In Clinical Studies For Alzheimer’S Disease, Xiao-Hua Zhou, Pete Castelluccio

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

A common problem for comparing the relative accuracy of two screening tests for Alzheimer’s disease (D) in a two-stage design study is verification bias. If the verification bias can be assumed to be ignorable, Zhou and Higgs (2000) have proposed a maximum likelihood approach to compare the relative accuracy of screening tests in a two-stage design study. However, if the verification mechanism also depends on the unobserved disease status, the ignorable assumption does not hold. In this paper, we discuss how to use a profile likelihood approach to compare the relative accuracy of two screening tests for AD without assuming …

Selecting Differentially Expressed Genes From Microarray Experiments, Margaret S. Pepe, Gary M. Longton, Garnet L. Anderson, Michel Schummer

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

High throughput technologies, such as gene expression arrays and protein mass spectrometry, allow one to simultaneously evaluate thousands of potential biomarkers that distinguish different tissue types. Of particular interest here is cancer versus normal organ tissues. We consider statistical methods to rank genes (or proteins) in regards to differential expression between tissues. Various statistical measures are considered and we argue that two measures related to the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve are particularly suitable for this purpose. We also propose that sampling variability in the gene rankings be quantified and suggest using the “selection probability function”, the probability distribution of rankings …