Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Forecasting Covid-19 With Temporal Hierarchies And Ensemble Methods, Li Shandross

Masters Theses

Infectious disease forecasting efforts underwent rapid growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, providing guidance for pandemic response and about potential future trends. Yet despite their importance, short-term forecasting models often struggled to produce accurate real-time predictions of this complex and rapidly changing system. This gap in accuracy persisted into the pandemic and warrants the exploration and testing of new methods to glean fresh insights.

In this work, we examined the application of the temporal hierarchical forecasting (THieF) methodology to probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 incident hospital admissions in the United States. THieF is an innovative forecasting technique that aggregates time-series data into …

Real-Time Dengue Forecasting In Thailand: A Comparison Of Penalized Regression Approaches Using Internet Search Data, Caroline Kusiak

Masters Theses

Dengue fever affects over 390 million people annually worldwide and is of particu- lar concern in Southeast Asia where it is one of the leading causes of hospitalization. Modeling trends in dengue occurrence can provide valuable information to Public Health officials, however many challenges arise depending on the data available. In Thailand, reporting of dengue cases is often delayed by more than 6 weeks, and a small fraction of cases may not be reported until over 11 months after they occurred. This study shows that incorporating data on Google Search trends can improve dis- ease predictions in settings with severely …

Multiple Testing Correction With Repeated Correlated Outcomes: Applications To Epigenetics, Katie Leap

Masters Theses

Epigenetic changes (specifically DNA methylation) have been associated with adverse health outcomes; however, unlike genetic markers that are fixed over the lifetime of an individual, methylation can change. Given that there are a large number of methylation sites, measuring them repeatedly introduces multiple testing problems beyond those that exist in a static genetic context. Using simulations of epigenetic data, we considered different methods of controlling the false discovery rate. We considered several underlying associations between an exposure and methylation over time.

We found that testing each site with a linear mixed effects model and then controlling the false discovery rate …

A Comparison Of Techniques For Handling Missing Data In Longitudinal Studies, Alexander R. Bogdan

Masters Theses

Missing data are a common problem in virtually all epidemiological research, especially when conducting longitudinal studies. In these settings, clinicians may collect biological samples to analyze changes in biomarkers, which often do not conform to parametric distributions and may be censored due to limits of detection. Using complete data from the BioCycle Study (2005-2007), which followed 259 premenopausal women over two menstrual cycles, we compared four techniques for handling missing biomarker data with non-Normal distributions. We imposed increasing degrees of missing data on two non-Normally distributed biomarkers under conditions of missing completely at random, missing at random, and missing not …

Regional Dynamic Price Relationships Of Distillers Dried Grains In U.S. Feed Markets, Matthew Fulton Johnson

Masters Theses

Distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) is now a mainstream substitute in U.S. animal feed rations. DDGS is rich in fat and protein content and serves as a competitive feed source in livestock markets. The objective of this study is to identify dynamic price relationships among DDGS, corn, soybean meal, and livestock outputs in context of specific livestock sectors and their geographic location. Four locations associated with a predominant livestock sector are selected for analysis by measuring density and relative proportion of a livestock sector’s grain consumption at the county level. A vector error correction model is applied to post-mandate …

Effects Of Bullying And Victimization On Friendship Selection, Reciprocation, And Maintenance In Elementary School Children, Marisa Lynn Whitley

Masters Theses

This study examined the effects of elementary school children’s bullying and victimization experiences on their friendships over time. The majority of children experience acts of aggression or bullying before the end of elementary school, and bullying and peer victimization is associated with academic, social, behavioral, and psychological difficulties. This study used social networks analysis (R SIENA 4.0) to examine whether peer reports of forms of bullying and victimization (i.e., overt and relational) affect the likelihood of friendship selection, reciprocation, and maintenance in 2^nd-4^th grade children. Children (N = 143) from the Midwestern region of the United …