Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Quantifying Antarctic Krill Connectivity Across The West Antarctic Peninsula And Its Role In Large-Scale Pygoscelis Penguin Population Dynamics, Katherine L. Gallagher, Michael S. Dinniman, Heather J. Lynch

CCPO Publications

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) are considered a keystone species for higher trophic level predators along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) during the austral summer. The connectivity of krill may play a critical role in predator biogeography, especially for central-place foragers such as the Pygoscelis spp. penguins that breed along the WAP during the austral summer. Antarctic krill are also heavily fished commercially; therefore, understanding population connectivity of krill is critical to effective management. Here, we used a physical ocean model to examine adult krill connectivity in this region using simulated krill with realistic diel vertical migration behaviors across …

Evidence For Irruptive Fluctuation In Axis Deer Of Hawai‘I, Steven C. Hess, Jonathan Sprague, Jacob Muise

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Axis deer on the Hawaiian Islands of Maui, Lāna‘i, and Moloka‘i simultaneously experienced one of the most dramatic population crashes on record in 2020-2021, which coincided with extended drought conditions and prompted an emergency declaration for these islands. This phenomenon has been anecdotally documented during previous drought events in 2011-2012, but never formally studied. Newspaper articles document abundant deer becoming a nuisance to agriculture and natural resources, and then experiencing high mortality during droughts. This phenomenon fits Caughley’s (1970) operational definition of eruptive (sic) fluctuation “…as an increase in numbers over at least two generations, followed by a marked decline.” …

Invader Removal Triggers Competitive Release In A Threatened Avian Predator, J. David Wiens, Katie M. Dugger, J. Mark Higley, Damon B. Lesmeister, Alan B. Franklin, Keith A. Hamm, Gary C. White, Krista E. Dilione, David C. Simon, Robin R. Bown, Peter C. Carlson, Charles B. Yackulic, James D. Nichols, James E. Hines, Raymond J. Davis, David W. Lamphear, Christopher Mccafferty, Trent L. Mcdonald, Stan G. Sovern

USDA Wildlife Services: Staff Publications

Changes in the distribution and abundance of invasive species can have far-reaching ecological consequences. Programs to control invaders are common but gauging the effectiveness of such programs using carefully controlled, large-scale field experiments is rare, especially at higher trophic levels. Experimental manipulations coupled with long-term demographic monitoring can reveal the mechanistic underpinnings of interspecific competition among apex predators and suggest mitigation options for invasive species. We used a large-scale before-after control-impact removal experiment to investigate the effects of an invasive competitor, the barred owl (Strix varia), on the population dynamics of an iconic old-forest native species, the northern spotted owl …

Temperature Stress And Disease Drives The Extirpation Of The Threatened Pillar Coral, Dendrogyra Cylindrus, In Southeast Florida, Nicholas P. Jones, Lystina Kabay, Kathleen Semon Lunz, David S. Gilliam

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Rare species population dynamics can elucidate the resilience of an ecosystem. On coral reefs, climate change and local anthropogenic stressors are threatening stony coral persistence, increasing the need to assess vulnerable species locally. Here, we monitored the threatened pillar coral, Dendrogyra cylindrus, population in southeast Florida, USA, in relation to consecutive heat stress events in 2014 and 2015. In the fall of each year, D. cylindrus colonies bleached following intense thermal stress and by June 2020 all monitored colonies died from a white-syndrome type disease. This resulted in the ecological extinction of D. cylindrus in the Southeast Florida Coral …

Spectral Properties Of A Non-Compact Operator In Ecology, Matthew Reichenbach

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Ecologists have used integral projection models (IPMs) to study fish and other animals which continue to grow throughout their lives. Such animals cannot shrink, since they have bony skeletons; a mathematical consequence of this is that the kernel of the integral projection operator T is unbounded, and the operator is not compact. A priori, it is unclear whether these IPMs have an asymptotic growth rate λ, or a stable-stage distribution ψ. In the case of a compact operator, these quantities are its spectral radius and the associated eigenvector, respectively. Under biologically reasonable assumptions, we prove that the non-compact operators in …

Connections In The Underworld: A Morphological And Molecular Study Of Diversity And Connectivity Among Anchialine Shrimp., Robert Eugene Ditter

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates the distribution and population structure of crustaceans, endemic to anchialine systems in the tropical western Atlantic focusing on cave-dwelling shrimp from the family Barbouriidae. Taxonomic and molecular tools (genetic and genomic) are utilized to examine population dynamics and the presence of phenotypic hypervariation (PhyV) of the critically endangered species Barbouria cubensis (von Martens, 1872). The presence of PhyV and its geographic distribution is investigated among anchialine populations of B. cubensis from 34 sites on Abaco, Eleuthera, and San Salvador, Bahamas. Examination of 54 informative morphological characters revealed PhyV present in nearly 90% (n=463) of specimens with no …

Quantifying Climate Sensitivity And Climate-Driven Change In North American Amphibian Communities, David A. W. Miller, Evan H Campbell Grant, Erin Muths, Staci M. Amburgey, Michael J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. Fellers, Thomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steve J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walt Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne Brand

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using > 500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in …

Genetic Variation Determines Which Feedbacks Drive And Alter Predator–Prey Eco-Evolutionary Cycles, Michael H. Cortez

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

Evolution can alter the ecological dynamics of communities, but the effects depend on the magnitudes of standing genetic variation in the evolving species. Using an eco‐coevolutionary predator–prey model, I identify how the magnitudes of prey and predator standing genetic variation determine when ecological, evolutionary, and eco‐evolutionary feedbacks influence system stability and the phase lags in predator–prey cycles. Here, feedbacks are defined by subsystems, i.e., the dynamics of a subset of the components of the whole system when the other components are held fixed; ecological (evolutionary) feedbacks involve the direct and indirect effects between population densities (species traits) and eco‐evolutionary feedbacks …

Management Strategy Evaluation For The Atlantic Surfclam (Spisula Solidissima) Using A Spatially Explicit, Vessel-Based Fisheries Model, Kelsey M. Kuykendall, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klink, Paula T. Moreno, Robert T. Leaf

CCPO Publications

The commercially valuable Atlantic surfclam (Spisula solidissima) is harvested along the northeastern continental shelf of the United States. Its range has contracted and shifted north, driven by warmer bottom water temperatures. Declining landings per unit of effort (LPUE) in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) is one result. Declining stock abundance and LPUE suggest that overfishing may be occurring off New Jersey. A management strategy evaluation (MSE) for the Atlantic surfclam is implemented to evaluate rotating closures to enhance Atlantic surfclam productivity and increase fishery viability in the MAB. Active agents of the MSE model are individual fishing vessels with …

Patterns In Greater Sage-Grouse Population Dynamics Correspond With Public Grazing Records At Broad Scales, Adrian P. Monroe, Cameron L. Aldridge, Timothy J. Assal, Kari E. Veblen, David A. Pyke, Michael L. Casazza

Wildland Resources Faculty Publications

Human land use, such as livestock grazing, can have profound yet varied effects on wildlife interacting within common ecosystems, yet our understanding of land-use effects is often generalized from short-term, local studies that may not correspond with trends at broader scales. Here we used public land records to characterize livestock grazing across Wyoming, USA, and we used Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) as a model organism to evaluate responses to livestock management. With annual counts of male Sage-grouse from 743 leks (breeding display sites) during 2004-2014, we modeled population trends in response to grazing level (represented by a relative grazing index) …

Genetic Variability Within Seagrass Of The North West Of Western Australia: Report Of Theme 5 - Project 5.2 Prepared For The Dredging Science Node, Kathryn Mcmahon, Udhi Hernawan, Kor-Jent Van Dijk, Michelle Waycott, Ed Biffin, Richard Evans, Paul Lavery

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This study was the first of its kind to examine the patterns of genetic diversity in seagrasses in the Pilbara region of WA. Three species were assessed: Halophila ovalis (6 populations), Halodule uninervis (8 populations) andThalassia hemprichii (3 populations) at a range of spatial scales, within a meadow (centimetres−metres), among meadows at a local scale (2−60 km) and among meadows at a regional scale (up to 500 km). Due to the varied distribution of species all species across the same spatial scale and range of environments could not be sampled, so a nested approach was designed, with sites …

Natural Dynamics: Understanding Natural Dynamics Of Seagrasses Of The North West Of Western Australia. Report Of Theme 5 - Project 5.3 Prepared For The Dredging Science Node, Mat Vanderklift, Douglas Bearham, Mick Haywood, Hector Lozano-Montes, Roisin Mccallum, James Mclaughlin, Kathryn Mcmahon, Nick Mortimer, Paul Lavery

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Relatively little is known of the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass meadows in the northwest of Western Australia, but such knowledge is needed when designing and evaluating studies that aim to detect potential dredging-related impacts on seagrass, and when making predictions about the likelihood of, and speed of recovery from such impacts. This study was undertaken to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns in seagrass composition, abundance and reproductive phenology in the Pilbara. We also characterised key environmental parameters, especially light, that influence seagrass survival and can be altered by dredging.

Aims

To improve our understanding …

Quantitative Evidence For The Effects Of Multiple Drivers On Continental-Scale Amphibian Declines, Evan H. Campbell Grant, David A. W. Miller, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Michael J. Adams, Staci M. Amburgey, Thierry Chambert, Sam S. Cruickshank, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Pieter T. J. Johnson, Maxwell B. Joseph, Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse, Maureen E. Ryan, J. Hardin Waddle, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Gary M. Fellers, Thomas A. Gorman, Andrew M. Ray, David S. Pilliod, Steven J. Price, Daniel Saenz, Walt Sadinski, Erin Muths

Forestry and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the …

Marine Infectious Disease Dynamics And Outbreak Thresholds: Contact Transmission, Pandemic Infection, And The Potential Role Of Filter Feeders, Gorka Bidegain, Eric N. Powell, John M. Klinck, Tal Ben-Horin, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Disease-causing organisms can have significant impacts on marine species and communities. However, the dynamics that underlie the emergence of disease outbreaks in marine ecosystems still lack the equivalent level of description, conceptual understanding, and modeling context routinely present in the terrestrial systems. Here, we propose a theoretical basis for modeling the transmission of marine infectious diseases (MIDs) developed from simple models of the spread of infectious disease. The models represent the dynamics of a variety of host-pathogen systems including those unique to marine systems where transmission of disease is by contact with waterborne pathogens both directly and through filter-feeding processes. …

Negative Feedbacks On Bark Beetle Outbreaks: Widespread And Severe Spruce Beetle Infestation Restricts Subsequent Infestation, Sarah J. Hart, Thomas T. Veblen, Nathan Mietkiewicz, Dominik Kulakowski

Geography

Understanding disturbance interactions and their ecological consequences remains a major challenge for research on the response of forests to a changing climate. When, where, and how one disturbance may alter the severity, extent, or occurrence probability of a subsequent disturbance is encapsulated by the concept of linked disturbances. Here, we evaluated 1) how climate and forest habitat variables, including disturbance history, interact to drive 2000s spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) infestation of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) across the Southern Rocky Mountains; and 2) how previous spruce beetle infestation affects subsequent infestation across the Flat Tops Wilderness in northwestern Colorado, which experienced …

Determining Scaphirhynchus Sturgeon Population Demographics And Dynamics: Implications For Range-Wide Management, Recovery, And Conservation, Martin J. Hamel

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Sturgeons (Acipenseridae) have experienced world-wide declines as a result of anthropogenic effects such as over-harvest, habitat degradation, altered flow regimes, and pollution. Nearly all European and Asian sturgeon species have experienced population declines and have subsequently been classified as either threatened or endangered. North American sturgeons have experienced a similar plight in that all eight native sturgeon species are listed as endangered, threatened, or of special concern. Direct linkages between North American sturgeon declines and anthropogenic effects are difficult to assess due to scale considerations, fluctuating environmental conditions, difficulty in capture, and the interaction of all these effects. To recover, …

Mortality Estimate Of Chinese Mystery Snail, Bellamya Chinensis (Reeve, 1863) In A Nebraska Reservoir, Danielle M. Haak, Noelle M. Chaine, Bruce J. Stephen, Alec Wong, Craig R. Allen

Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit: Staff Publications

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species found throughout the USA. Little is known about this species’ life history or ecology, and only one population estimate has been published, for Wild Plum Lake in southeast Nebraska. A recent die-off event occurred at this same reservoir and we present a mortality estimate for this B. chinensis population using a quadrat approach. Assuming uniform distribution throughout the newly-exposed lake bed (20,900 m2), we estimate 42,845 individuals died during this event, amounting to approximately 17% of the previously-estimated population size of 253,570. Assuming uniform distribution throughout all …

Human Impact On Atolls Leads To Coral Loss And Community Homogenisation: A Modeling Study, Bernhard Riegl, Charles R. C. Sheppard, Samuel J. Purkis

Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

We explore impacts on pristine atolls subjected to anthropogenic near-field (human habitation) and far-field (climate and environmental change) pressure. Using literature data of human impacts on reefs, we parameterize forecast models to evaluate trajectories in coral cover under impact scenarios that primarily act via recruitment and increased mortality of larger corals. From surveys across the Chagos, we investigate the regeneration dynamics of coral populations distant from human habitation after natural disturbances. Using a size-based mathematical model based on a time-series of coral community and population data from 1999–2006, we provide hind- and forecast data for coral population dynamics within lagoons …

Population And Diet Assessment Of White Bass In Lake Sharpe, South Dakota, Andrew E. Ahrens, Travis W. Schaeffer, Melissa R. Wuellner, David W. Willis

The Prairie Naturalist

White bass (Morone chrysops) have been introduced into all 4 South Dakota Missouri River reservoirs and compose a substantial proportion of the annual recreational harvest. To date, limited studies have examined white bass population dynamics and food habits in South Dakota Missouri River reservoirs. Our objective was to examine population dynamics and food habits of white bass in Lake Sharpe, a South Dakota mainstem Missouri River reservoir. White bass consistently consumed invertebrates during May but switched to a more piscivorous diet later in the growing season; most of the fish consumed were gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum). …

Modeling And Analysis Of Biological Populations, Joan Lubben

Department of Mathematics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Asymptotic and transient dynamics are both important when considering the future population trajectory of a species. Asymptotic dynamics are often used to determine whether the long-term trend results in a stable, declining or increasing population and even provide possible directions for management actions. Transient dynamics are important for estimating invasion speed of non-indigenous species, population establishment after releasing biocontrol agents, or population management after a disturbance like fire. We briefly describe here the results in this thesis.

(1) We consider asymptotic dynamics using discrete time linear population models of the form n(t + 1) = An(t) where …

Impact Of Minimum Winter Temperatures On The Population Dynamics Of Dendroctonus Frontalis, J. KhảI TrầN, Tiina Ylioja, Ronald F. Billings, Jacques Régnière, Matthew P. Ayres

Dartmouth Scholarship

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, …

Surviving A Drought: Population Dynamics Of Ochotona Pallasi Pricei In A Dry Steppe, Gobi Altai, Mongolia, Karin Nadrowski, Georg Miehe

Erforschung biologischer Ressourcen der Mongolei / Exploration into the Biological Resources of Mongolia, ISSN 0440-1298

Two distinct life history traits are described from the genus Ochotona, the group of “burrowing” species exhibiting high but fluctuating population densities and the “non-burrowing” species exhibiting relatively stable low population densities. The life history traits are linked to ecosystem dynamics with climatically variable steppe environments hosting “burrowing” species and relatively stable mountainous and rocky habitats hosting “non-burrowing” species. There are few intermediate species, living in both steppe and rocky environments. This study presents survival rates, reproductive rates and a tentative model of population dynamics for Ochotona pallasi pricei, an intermediate species with respect to habitat preference. We …

Bottom-Up Forcing And The Decline Of Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias Jubatus) In Alaska: Assessing The Ocean Climate Hypothesis, Andrew W. Trites, Arthur J. Miller, Michael A. Alexander, Steven J. Bograd, John A. Calder, Antonietta Capotondi, Kenneth O. Coyle, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Bruce P. Finney, Edward J. Gregr, Chester E. Grosch, Thomas C. Royer

CCPO Publications

Declines of Steller sea lion ( Eumetopias jubatus) populations in the Aleutian Islands and Gulf of Alaska could be a consequence of physical oceanographic changes associated with the 1976–77 climate regime shift. Changes in ocean climate are hypothesized to have affected the quantity, quality, and accessibility of prey, which in turn may have affected the rates of birth and death of sea lions. Recent studies of the spatial and temporal variations in the ocean climate system of the North Pacific support this hypothesis. Ocean climate changes appear to have created adaptive opportunities for various species that are preyed upon …

Crop Updates 2003 - Geraldton, David Stephens, James Fisher, Ian Edwards, Dennis Wise, Andrew Young, Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard, Greg Shea, Blakely Paynter, Roslyn Jettner, Kevin Young, Kevin Walden, Geoff Thomas, Robin Wilson, Iain Barclay, Robyn Mclean, Jenny Garlinge, Bill Lambe, Neil Venn, Peter Clarke, Martin Harries, Bob French, Wayne Parker, Murray Blyth, Peter Norris, Greg Lyle, Katheryn Steadman, Amanda Ellery, Sally C. Peltzer, Kari-Lee Falconer, Russell Speed, Terry Piper, Harmohinder Dhammu, Bindi Webb, Paul Blackwell, Phil Logue, Nigel Moffat, Rohan Ford, Miles Obst, Frances Hoyle, Leanne Schulz, Judith Devenish, Peter Newman, Grant Morrow, Ian Foster, Darshan Sharma, Marnie Thomas, Graham Walton, Hasan Zaheer, Paul Carmody, Mike Clarke, Paul Raper

Crop Updates

This session covers twenty eight papers from different authors

1. Seasonal Outlook: What is in store for 2003, David Stephens, Department of Agriculture

2. Examining The Management Options For Wheat Crops In The Coming Season, James Fisher, Department of Agriculture

3. GMO’s – what do they offer? Ian Edwards, Grain Bio Tech Australia Pty Ltd

4. The Big Gamble – Wheat prices for 2003, Dennis Wise, Profarmer

5. Market outlook for other grains, Andrew Young, General Manager Agricorp

6. Stripe rust – where to now for the WA wheat industry? Robert Loughman, Ciara Beard and Greg Shea, Department of Agriculture

7. Baudin …

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Understanding The Success And Failure Of Oyster Populations: The Importance Of Sampled Variables And Sample Timing, Thomas M. Soniat, Eric N. Powell, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck

CCPO Publications

One of the primary obstacles to understanding why some oyster populations are successful and others are not is the complex interaction of environmental variables with oyster physiology and with such population variables as the rates of recruitment and juvenile mortality. A numerical model is useful in investigating how population structure originates out of this complexity. We have monitored a suite of environmental conditions over an environmental gradient to document the importance of short time-scale variations in such variables as food supply, turbidity, and salinity. Then, using a coupled oyster disease population dynamics model, we examine the need for short rime-scale …

A Modeling Study Of The Effects Of Size- And Depth-Dependent Predation On Larval Survival, Margaret M. Dekshenieks, Eileen E. Hofmann, John M. Klinck, Eric N. Powell

CCPO Publications

The form of the predation pressure experienced by larval stages of marine invertebrates is largely unknown. However, it is believed that the type, timing and rate of larval predation are critical in determining recruitment to adult populations. In this study, a time and depth-dependent model of the growth and behavior of larvae of the Eastern oyster, Crassostrea virginica, was used to investigate the effects of different forms of size-and depth-dependent predation on larval survivorship. The simulated larval survival for a cohort experiencing size-dependent predation showed that the greatest percent of the cohort survived to competent settlement size when the …

Factors Affecting The Recruitment Of Juvenile Caribbean Spiny Lobsters Dwelling In Macroalgae, Mark J. Butler Iv, William F. Herrnkind, John H. Hunt

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

In south Florida, Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus) settle and spend their first few months in macroalgae or seagrass. After a few months, these ''algal-phase'' juveniles emerge from vegetation and, as ''postalgal-phase'' juveniles, seek refuge in crevices, often dwelling in groups. The importance of crevice shelters in determining the abundance of postalgal-phase juvenile spiny lobsters has been studied but we know little about the processes affecting lobster distribution and survival during their cryptic algal-dwelling phase. We found that postlarval supply varied independently of changes in the structure of macroalgal settlement habitat. For this reason, postlarval supply alone can not reliably …

Population-Dynamics Of Juvenile Caribbean Spiny Lobster, Panulirus-Argus, In Florida Bay, Florida, David Forcucci, Mark J. Butler Iv, John H. Hunt

Biological Sciences Faculty Publications

Despite a wealth of information on the growth and population dynamics of sub-adult and adult Caribbean spiny lobsters (Panulirus argus), there is far less information about younger juveniles under natural conditions. Here we describe growth and population dynamics of juvenile spiny lobsters (12-68 mm carapace length, CL) that we have studied for 14 months (October 1988-December 1989) using mark-recapture techniques in a hardbottom community in Florida Bay, Florida. We also monitored the supply of postlarvae into the region in 1988 and 1989 using Witham-type surface collectors in an effort to link peak periods of settlement of postlarvae with subsequent cohorts …