Physical Sciences and Mathematics Commons^™

Feasibility Of Predicting Vietnam’S Autumn Rainfall Regime Based On The Tree-Ring Record And Decadal Variability, Yan Sun, Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Rong Li, Brendan M. Buckley, Robert R. Gilies, Kyle G. Hansen

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall ( R_A ) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s R_A along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as …